Like seemingly every other guy entering their 30s, I picked up cooking and smoking meat as hobbies about fifteen years ago. My granddad gave me some pointers. I got a grill for Father’s Day. And I proceeded to burn myself and some (most) of our food until I got the hang of things. I still remember when I was about to do my first brisket and when soliciting advice from my older friends, their answers started with the same phrase: “Well, it depends …”
I never knew so many factors mattered. From my heat source (coal, splits, pellets) to the amount of dry rub used, more caveats than actionable knowledge came. Taking a QB can become just as complicated once you dive into it.
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You want to draft your guy, but any analyst will have you reconsidering everything. So, to help, I put together how I’m approaching the position as a function of the draft cost for 2026.
Taking a QB in the Early Rounds
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Pros: Less uncertainty on a week-to-week basis; set it and forget it
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Cons: One less chance to take a high-end WR and RB
Despite the defensive meta that’s put the lid on most offenses, QBs are still the MVP of both real and fantasy football. Even when we talk about receivers and their accolades, a mention of who’s throwing them the ball (and their rank amongst their peers) isn’t too far behind.
Over the last five seasons, QBs have scored an average of 19.7 PPG. RBs and WRs are at 14.7 and 14.9, respectively. TEs bring up the rest of the skill players at 11.9. The gap is why we covet signal-callers. But we also have to recognize that we start more rushers and receivers. That becomes even more significant in the early rounds.
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Round 1 (from 2021-2025): 17.6 (RB PPR PPG), 18.4 (WR PPR PPG)
I’m not breaking any news here, but talent dwindles as we get deeper into the draft. In other words, our best bet to get the core players (the starters we need the most from each week) is in the early rounds. But if we sink one of those picks into a QB, we’re giving up that chance. However, there are ways we can minimize the risk of hurting our team.
Here’s a look at points above replacement for each position by draft round since 2021.
(Chris Allen)
I built a points above replacement (PAR) model to measure a player’s value over their positional baseline. Surprisingly, QBs with a second-round ADP become an optimal selection with this approach. In other words, landing on an elite QB was, in fact, the right move. Josh Allen (2022-2025), Patrick Mahomes (2021, 2023) and Jalen Hurts (2023), even with their expensive draft costs, were worth their respective clicks. But as you can see, the case for passers disappears. And when you see a few of the guys causing the disruption, you’ll know why.
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Lamar Jackson (2021, 2022)
Injuries ravaged the seasons of our favorite QB picks in rounds 3-5. Sure, each carried their own risk profiles. But as we were chasing the top tier, we flew too close to the sun and got burned in the process. So, there is an element of “good process, bad results” to the data. However, by applying the takeaways from the model to 2026 ADP, a few recognizable names come to the top.
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Josh Allen – 19.4 (ADP)
Simply put, we’re either paying the iron price or waiting until the sixth round to find our guy. Which, according to historical data, aligns with where QB value picks up again. So, the names pass the sniff test. And their individual profiles all speak to their potential upside.
Allen is the only QB out of the group with a three-season average rank in EPA per dropback and QB rushing rate in the top 12. Hurts may be lacking in passing efficiency, but has pulled ahead in exploiting the Konami Code (sixth). Meanwhile, Herbert has been slightly behind both, but with an OC upgrade has the path to keeping up with the perennial top options. So, if you come into your draft with an early-round QB in mind, don’t use ceiling outcomes as a reason to add them to your team. Consider their risk profile and opportunity cost before making your final decision.
Other Early-Round Target(s): Drake Maye
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Drafting a Passer in the Mid-Rounds
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Pros: Increased flexibility across your entire roster
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Cons: Drop in weekly upside at the position
The simple answer for mid-round QBs would be to take the same profile of our high-end passers and lower the bar a notch. Let’s call them “early-round-lite” options. Because, let’s be honest, we see these guys having big performances sometimes. They feel just as likely to outscore the high-class passers. But that’s where we start to lean over our skis a bit.
Justin Fields was a 10th-round pick last season. We all knew why. His penchant for tucking the ball (and the allure of a Ben Johnson acolyte pulling the strings behind Fields) had everyone reliving Fields’ rookie season. But the result was something his detractors saw coming. Fields’ inability to sustain an above-average passing game had him on the bench. Sure, we got the single-game highs, but the multiple zeros that followed highlight a flaw in our approach to the middle rounds.
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Designed Rushing Rate (2021-2025): 0.82 (r value)
On the one hand, it’s easier for us to predict which QBs will flash their mobility each year. The year-over-year stability for designed rushing and scrambling is much higher than any volume or efficiency stat over the last five years. But this just tells us what a passer will do, not necessarily how they’ll perform. And when we reframe the analysis around that idea, the metrics we need to prioritize shift.
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Designed Rushing Rate: -0.37
Efficiency and volume are doing all of the heavy lifting when it comes to mid-round QBs. Yes, it’d be nice if we found a guy who can do both. However, if we can find passers with top-10 throwing metrics at their disposal, we’re more likely to find starters who can compete with their early-round counterparts. I dug through the latest ADP with this framework in mind, and three names stood out.
Dak Prescott has been a top-eight QB in total points every season he’s played at least 16 games. To go back to our “mid-round QBs are the lite versions of high-end passers” idea, Prescott is discount Joe Burrow. And he has the top-12 EPA per dropback and PROE numbers to go with the results. Love can match the efficiency but lacks the volume. Nix’s mobility smoothes over him still adjusting to Sean Payton’s scheme. But all three have delivered for fantasy gamers who’ve rostered them.
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Top 3: 26.1% (Prescott), 14.7% (Nix), 12.2% (Love)
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Top 6: 34.8%, 17.6%, 20.4%
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Top 12: 50.7%, 44.1%, 42.9%
Nearly half the time, we’ve gotten QB1 finishes from all three. Even better, a few top-three results emphasizing their ceiling potential. So, as I’m hunting for my starter in the middle rounds, I’ll be looking for high-end passers first before focusing on their athletic ability.
Mid-Round Targets: Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, C.J. Stroud
The Late-Round QB
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Pros: More chances at high-end WRs and RBs along with a top TE
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Cons: Needing to project game script and outcome ranges; may need to have an extra QB on your bench
We’re in the dart-throw territory of the draft. The “squint and you can see a QB1” part. However, let’s use the gift of hindsight (and, of course, some data) to identify the traits we should focus on in the double-digit rounds.
If you saw Trevor Lawrence making good on his media moniker of “The Prince That Was Promised,” good on you. He entered 2025 with just one season above the league average in EPA per dropback. The two straws of hope for the former first-round pick were new HC (and play-caller) Liam Coen along with Travis Hunter. But Hunter didn’t finish the season. In fact, Jacksonville needed to trade for another WR and coax a breakout year from its ’23 sixth-round receiver to get into the playoffs. Regardless, Lawrence’s meteoric rise gives us a sense of what we need results-wise out of the late-round QBs to create value.
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R13-14: 79.7% (avg. amount of early-round QB production)
I benchmarked the QBs drafted in R13-20 against the early-round passers from the last five seasons. The results you see here show how much of an R2-6 signal-caller’s production you should expect your late-round guy to generate. Said another way, Sam Darnold should be able to produce about 70% of Josh Allen’s results. Or, there’s about a 30% gap between Lamar Jackson and Malik Willis. It sounds devastating at first. But remember, you’ve got strengths elsewhere on your roster. Besides, we can apply a similar profile we used for the mid-round QBs here to find optimal candidates.
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EPA per Dropback: 0.68 (r value)
I used the late-round QBs who came within 90% of an early-round passer and found the correlative metrics to their point totals. No surprise, but we still need competent throwers of the football. However, quarterbacks with some wiggle to their game start to play a role. That’s why, from Lawrence and Jaxson Dart last year to Baker Mayfield and Bo Nix the year before, the athletic archetype has ruled the later rounds. So, let’s spin this analysis forward and see who fits the bill for the upcoming season.
I’ve been a believer in the Saints offense since around Week 15 of last year. Tyler Shough sat at the league average in EPA per dropback and passing success rate with Chris Olave, Devaughn Vele and Kevin Austin as his primary receivers. He now gets Jordyn Tyson and a full season with HC Kellen Moore to get more comfortable with the system. Yes, I like that he was just one of 10 starters with a rushing rate above 10.0% over the back half of the year. But it’s his proficiency as a thrower that I’ll be valuing if I’m searching for a starter in the later rounds.
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Other Late-Round Targets: Geno Smith, Cam Ward
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