Winless Oregon State is caught in a quagmire, but don’t expect the Beavers to jump into coaching carousel

Oregon State is in the throes of a winless season, off to an 0-5 start for the first time since 1996. It is a low point for a program that has been through the wringer over the last two years. The Beavers looked rudderless across their first five games with costly special teams gaffes aplenty and an offense unable to pull its feet out of the mud. Despite all the turmoil, second-year coach Trent Bray likely still has some runway ahead of him.

This season’s failures have been in the making for some time. It was just two seasons ago that Oregon State was a born-again Pac-12 contender and mainstay in the national rankings, a status it held for much of the 21st century before a period of dormancy. But then 10 schools left the Pac-12, leaving the Beavers and Washington State in the dust. Jonathan Smith left his post atop the program to take the Michigan State job. The transfer portal gutted the roster of its best players, including promising QB Aidan Chiles, who followed Smith to East Lansing. 

Bray, an institution in Corvallis as a former star linebacker and longtime standout assistant coach, stepped up when Oregon State needed stability. His rise to the head coaching role sparked enthusiasm because of his track record as a winner, contagious energy and passion for his alma mater.

Things haven’t panned out. The Beavers fell short of expectations in Bray’s five-win debut season, and barring a sharp turnaround, Year 2 is on pace to be a campaign of further regression.

Whether the Beavers should move on from Bray and whether they will are two different questions. A downtrodden program seeking to find its footing in the new college football landscape has to have the right leader in place, and nothing the Oregon State staff showed over its first year and a half together suggested it is fit for the job. This school is historically patient, though, and Bray likely has a longer leash than his staffers given what he means to Oregon State.

What could happen

The chances Oregon State fires Bray are probably slimmer than one would think. The program has long been a subscriber to the “success is not always linear” theory, and in many instances, it paid off. Remember, Smith posted three consecutive losing seasons to open his tenure and needed until Year 5 for a full breakthrough. The Beavers stuck with Mike Riley through a few valleys in order to get back to his numerous peaks.

Truth be told, this simply is not a program that typically fires football coaches. It has had some good ones over the years, and maybe Bray is not one of them. But you’d have to go back to 1984 to find the last time Oregon State blatantly told a coach to pack his bags.

Oregon State coaches since 1980

Instead of firing Bray, the first step toward rebuilding the Beavers into a competitive squad would be to make changes further down the staff. Offensive coordinator Ryan Gunderson and special teams coordinator Jamie Christian are on thin ice after their groups appeared hapless for much of the 0-5 start.

Christian’s situation is the most dire. With long snapper Dylan Black injured, special teams errors in his absence have been the difference in two games: losses to Fresno State and Houston. Poor snaps cost the Beavers on extra points, field goals and punts against the Bulldogs, and twice against the Cougars they had field goal attempts blocked — including on what would have been a game-winning kick.

Gunderson is under the microscope, too. Despite the Beavers investing more than $1 million in quarterback Maalik Murphy, who was reportedly forced out of Duke after a historically successful season with the Blue Devils, they have yet to score more than 27 points in a game. A rushing attack that was supposed to be this offense’s bread and butter has not panned out, either, ranking 127th nationally at 93.8 yards per contest.

What should happen

Oregon State has been forced into myriad tough decisions over the last two years because of realities largely out of its own control. When it comes to football leadership, however, the Beavers finally have a say in the direction of their program. They have the resources to perennially contend for Pac-12 titles in the rebuilt conference if they put the right people in charge. As unlikely as it may be for them to fire more than a couple of coordinators, they may have to include their head coach in that leadership change to ensure they enter the new-look Pac-12 next season with a shot at winning over the long haul.

If athletic director Scott Barnes — who has taken much flak from the fanbase himself throughout the university’s tumult — cannot bring himself to fire Bray, the second-year coach could do what many of his predecessors did before him. Step down.

Bray went on the record during his run as Oregon State’s defensive coordinator saying that he did not have head coaching ambitions. Ahead of this season, he retook control of defensive playcalling duties and noted that he missed that side of coaching. Bray calls defenses and coaches linebackers with the absolute best of them and built a long career across multiple power conference schools doing just that. Perhaps he should return to that role and allow a more seasoned coach to run the CEO job.

Oregon State has already fallen from power conference contender to Group of Six also-ran, and to be blunt, it cannot afford to sink further with the wrong coach at the helm. Bray could still be that guy, and the Beavers will give him a chance to prove it. But if it becomes any more clear that the issue starts with him and not his coordinators, he or Barnes have to pull the plug.