As expected, we saw some major movement in the Heisman Trophy odds after one of the biggest Saturdays of the college football season. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore is now the Heisman favorite after the Ducks won on the road at Penn State.
Last week at this time, Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer was the betting favorite, but he is now out of the Heisman race after being sidelined by a hand injury. Mateer is expected to miss a few weeks, so it’s a tough break for those who had the foresight to bet him at his early odds of +2500.
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With Mateer out of the running, the four favorites at Caesars Sportsbook entering Week 6 are Moore (+750), Alabama QB Ty Simpson (+950), Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith (+1000) and Miami QB Carson Beck (+1100).
Here is a look at how to approach the Heisman Trophy favorites and players to bet before the Week 6 results.
Heisman Trophy Odds ahead of Week 6 (odds via Caesars)
Favorites
Dante Moore, Oregon QB (+750)
Moore moved from +1000 to +750 after he played well in the win over Penn State. It was a big hurdle for Moore because now the schedule opens up for him to win the award.
The Ducks play Indiana and USC but get both teams at home. There are still road tests versus Iowa and Washington, although Oregon will be favored to win every remaining game and go undefeated in the regular season for the second straight year.
If Moore has a big game next week against Indiana, his odds will continue to drop. My guess is +750 is the best we get with Moore for the rest of the season. I would bet him now.
Ty Simpson, Alabama QB (+950)
Last week I mentioned the winning quarterback in the Alabama-Georgia game would see his Heisman Trophy odds drop significantly. That quarterback was Ty Simpson, whose odds went from +2200 all the way down to +950.
Simpson is a tough one to call right now because Alabama still has some challenging games on the schedule, starting this week with Vanderbilt. Assuming the Crimson Tide get by the Commodores, there are road challenges at Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn, along with home games against Tennessee, Oklahoma and LSU.
My recommendation is to pass on Simpson at these odds. I think he is a little overvalued right now. Remember, Alabama already lost a game. I don’t see the Tide running the table with their tough remaining schedule, and that could put Simpson out of the mix.
Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State WR (+1000)
Smith is pound-for-pound the most dominant player in college football, so he is always a threat to sneak up and win the award. Writers have also changed the way they vote for the Heisman Trophy in recent years, with two receivers — DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — winning the award since 2020.
Smith’s path to the Heisman comes down to games against Penn State and Michigan. If he dominates against both teams, Smith will likely be a Heisman finalist. The Michigan game is key because it’s the final week of the season with all the Heisman voters paying attention. I honestly believe Smith can win the award that day with a huge performance.
Smith’s odds haven’t changed much throughout the season, though I don’t believe we will get much better than +1000 on him. My advice is if you want to bet on Smith, do it before Nov. 1, when Ohio State hosts Penn State.
Carson Beck, Miami QB (+1100)
Carson Beck is interesting because Miami played one of its toughest games in Week 1. That can hurt a Heisman contender when they don’t have many more marquee games on the schedule.
That’s the case with Beck. He already played two of his biggest games against Notre Dame and Florida in September. Miami has one more high-profile matchup this Saturday against Florida State. After that, nothing really moves the needle.
I feel like by the time we get to November, Beck will be in the hunt, but there will be other flashier options that catch the attention of voters. When I look at Beck, I see a solid third-place finisher for the Heisman Trophy. He is a pass for me at +1100.
Players to avoid
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana QB (+1400)
Last week Mendoza was the second favorite at +950. I thought the overreaction to Indiana’s big win at home over Illinois was ridiculous, considering the Hoosiers had yet to play a game on the road. Indiana finally left home and earned a hard-fought win over Iowa on Saturday. However, Mendoza wasn’t nearly as impressive as the week before, so his odds fell to +1400.
As I mentioned last week, Mendoza really has to beat either Oregon or Penn State to have a shot, and even that is debatable. Indiana might have to win both of those games, and the odds are strongly against that happening.
Remember, the Heisman is a narrative-based award with a knee-jerk shift in odds from week to week, similar to NFL MVP. Mendoza should have never been +950 last week. I think he is priced more accordingly at +1400, but with Oregon on deck, it’s still not enough for me to bite.
Sam Leavitt, Arizona State QB (+1900)
My tour of telling you to avoid betting overvalued Big 12 quarterbacks to win the Heisman continues. A few weeks ago, it was Utah quarterback Devon Dampier at +1600. He’s out of the race. Last week, it was TCU quarterback Josh Hoover at +1400. He’s out of the race. Now it’s time to avoid Leavitt at +1900.
My reasoning to avoid Leavitt is the same as it was for Dampier and Hoover: way too many things need to happen for Leavitt to win the Heisman Trophy. One loss and he’s out of the mix just like Dampier and Hoover. Leavitt’s odds would need to be north of +4000 for me to even consider betting on him.
I like Dampier, Hoover and Leavitt as players. However, all three have been way overvalued in the Heisman market this season.
Bets to make now
Dante Moore, Oregon QB (+750)
I mentioned above that I don’t think we will see better odds for Moore to win the Heisman Trophy. Oregon is the best team in the country right now, and I see them reaching the Big Ten Championship Game with an undefeated record. If that’s the case, Moore will be an overwhelming favorite to win the award. Bet him now.
Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt QB (+2800)
My picks in this section aren’t always bets I like personally. Sometimes it’s advice based on the weekly matchups. For example, last week I mentioned Penn State quarterback Drew Allar at +2800. I didn’t like Allar to win the Heisman, but if he was a player you were eyeing, last week was the time to bet him with Penn State facing Oregon.
Pavia is in the same boat. I don’t believe Pavia will win the Heisman because Vanderbilt would need to upset too many teams for it to happen. However, if the Commodores upset Alabama for the second straight year on Saturday, Pavia will be similar to Mendoza after beating Illinois, where he suddenly becomes one of the favorites.
Again, the recommendation here is if you think Pavia is worth a bet, it has to be made before the Alabama game. Win or lose, a bet on Pavis next week won’t make sense. His odds will either be too short, or Pavia will be out of the race.
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