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The 5 O’Clock Club
The 5 o’clock club is published from time to time during the season, and aims to provide a forum for reader-driven discussion at a time of day when there isn’t much NFL news being published. Feel free to introduce topics that interest you in the comments below.
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2026 opponent preview series: Wk 1 Eagles | Wk 2 Cowboys | Wk 3 Seahawks | Wk 4 Colts | Wk 5 Giants | Wk 6 49ers | Wk 9 Rams | Wk 11 Bengals | Wk 12 Cardinals | Wk 13 Titans | Wk 14 Texans | Wk 15 Falcons – Wk 16 Vikings
Previewing Washington’s 14 opponents of the ‘26 season — one at a time
In 2026, the Commanders will, like every other team in the NFL, play 17 games against 14 opponents. With the amount of roster change that NFL teams undergo annually along with the unusually large number of head coach and coordinator changes in 2026, it seems useful to spend some time to review each of Washington’s regular season opponents.
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JAGUARS
The Week 17 road game in Jacksonville features the matchup of two relatively young NFL QBs, Trevor Lawrence and Jayden Daniels, each trying to enhance the trajectory of his career. Lawrence enters the late-season contest following a season in which he became an MVP finalist under coordinator Liam Coen. For the Commanders, Daniels will be hoping to be finishing a healthy season reminiscent of his rookie year, and leading a re-tooled and re-energized Washington offense under David Blough. This game could serve as a late-season benchmark for both quarterbacks as their teams will hopefully be fighting for playoff positioning.
Week 17 Preview: Washington Commanders at Jacksonville Jaguars
Date: Date & Time TBD
Location: EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida
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The official NFL Commanders 2026 Season Preview ends with this projection of what the Commanders season could look like if Jayden Daniels stays healthy and returns to his 2024 ROTY form:
While this projected start to the season (0-3; 2-4; 3-5) would lead to a lot of people having to be talked down from a lot of ledges in the months of September and October, given the team’s two new coordinators and the distribution of expected tougher/easier opponents, this 12-win projection doesn’t look very dissimilar to my own recent 10-win projection; in fact, I had the same W/L projections for all the games except for the Texans and this one against the Jaguars.
My point here, if I have one, is that the Week 17 game in Jacksonville, if the season is unfolding along the lines of an optimistic preseason projection, could take place amidst a lot of winning and optimism for a Commanders team that could be living by the mantra that “it ain’t how you start; it’s how you finish” in this first weekend of NFL football in the 2027 calendar year (For what it’s worth, I looked at the Jaguars’ season preview video from the NFL, and their best case outcome has them winning 13 games and winning this Week 17 game as well).
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The Jaguars won 13 games last year en route to the AFC South championship, and I imagine that Jacksonville fans will be expecting a similarly strong 2026 season. The Jags season over/under win total is 9.5, so oddsmakers seem to be expecting a good season from Liam Coen’s team.
One familiar face that the Commanders will know when they fly south for this winter battle is that of RB Chris Rodriguez, former 2023 6th-round draft pick of the Commanders. He signed with the Jaguars as a restricted free agent from the Commanders this offseason, and Rodriguez should be a focal point of Jacksonville’s short-yardage committee alongside second-year back Bhayshul Tuten.
Jayden Daniels will see at least one friendly face from his college days. His former teammate at LSU, Brian Thomas Jr, is a star wide receiver for the Jaguars — or, at least, like JD5, Thomas looked like a star when he had 87 catches for 1,282 yards and 10 TDs as a rookie in 2024 before falling back to earth quite a bit in ‘25 (707 yards, 2 TDs). He was Jayden Daniels’ primary deep threat during their record-breaking 2023 college football season at LSU, where Thomas led the nation in touchdown receptions and helped propel Daniels to his Heisman Trophy win. Both players entered the NFL together as first-round picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, and there has been a lot of fan & media buzz in recent months about the concept of the Commanders front office trading for Thomas to set up an NFL reunion between quarterback and receiver. Of course, Daniels has another former college teammate on the roster with him at the moment — Rachaad White, signed by Washington in free agency back in March, and Daniels formed a productive offensive backfield together at Arizona State during the 2020 and 2021 college seasons before Daniels transferred to LSU.
Under head coach Liam Coen in 2025, Jacksonville transformed into an offensive powerhouse, highlighted by an explosive post-bye-week stretch. If they mirror last year’s late-season surge in 2026, this game will likely be critical for securing the AFC South or a top seed.
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Washington, for its part, enters the ‘26 season determined to erase memories of a tough 2025 season and find its footing under new coordinators on offense & defense. Commanders fans are hoping that fresh leadership and a rejuvenated and healthy roster will see the team re-acquire the playoff form it demonstrated in 2024. This Week 17 battle represents either a statement game to clinch an NFC playoff seed or — in the pessimistic timeline — a spoiler opportunity against an AFC heavyweight.
The All-Time Series Numbers
The historical discrepancy between these two franchises is shockingly one-sided. Washington completely dominates the all-time series 7-1, with Jacksonville’s solitary win against the franchise occurring all the way back in 2002.
The only NFL team that has played Washington fewer times than the Jaguars is the Texans — the Commanders’ Week 14 opponent. No team has been more thoroughly dominated by Washington than the Jaguars based on the all-time series W-L record. Still, when the games are looked at individually, things have been much more even between the two teams than the series record would indicate; in the 5 straight Washington victories since 2006, 4 of them have been decided by a margin of 6 points or less, and two of them went into overtime. In other words, despite the dominance in series wins, the past two decades has been witness to a hard-fought bunch of games between these two teams.
Undoubtedly, Jacksonville will be looking to partially balance the scales with a key win in this Week 17 game. The Commanders, on the other hand, will be keen to add to the most lopsided head-to-head series advantage they enjoy against any team in the league.
Jaguars Coaching Staff
While there were some limited staff changes, the Jaguars coaching staff returns for the 2026 season substantially the same as it was in 2025, with the same head coach and coordinators. Both OC Grant Udinski and DC Anthony Campanile had multiple interviews for head coaching positions, but both returned to Jacksonville on new contracts. That may, however, offer insight as to how the two are viewed around the NFL
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Head Coach: Liam Coen
Offensive Coordinator: Grant Udinski
Defensive Coordinator: Anthony Campanile
Special Teams Coordinator: Heath Farwell
The team did hire a new Defensive Pass Game Coordinator and a new Offensive Run Game Coordinator; they also promoted Shane Waldron to Assistant Head Coach and elevated Heath Farwell to Associate Head Coach.
Offense
The 2026 Jaguars offense enters its 2nd season under OC Grant Udinski following a record-breaking campaign. In 2025, the Jags were 6th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 27.9 points per game and tallying a franchise-record 474 total points. After drawing head-coaching interest during the offseason, Udinski signed a contract extension to remain in Jacksonville, providing continuity for an offense that relies on complex mental processing.
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What typifies Udinski’s system is its commitment to spreading targets widely across multiple position groups rather than relying on a single dominant receiver. The design utilizes intermediate passing windows and multiple tight-end sets to create mismatches. Also, rather than running a static scheme, Udinski emphasizes playbook mastery to allow quick pre-snap adjustments. Players have noted that learning the system in ‘25 was mentally demanding, but that the team enters 2026 with a firmer grasp of the concepts, which should lead to faster execution at the line of scrimmage.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence remains the central figure of the offense. Under Udinski’s direction, Lawrence transformed into an MVP finalist last season, throwing 15 TDs against 1 INT during the final six games of the regular season. His development hinges on his comfort within the system, and his familiarity in Year 2 is expected to improve 3rd down efficiency.
The primary beneficiaries of this system are the young pass-catchers who are featured evenly in the game plan. WRs Brian Thomas Jr. and Parker Washington, along with TE Brenton Strange each surpassed 500 receiving yards last year. Thomas Jr. serves as the primary vertical threat, while Washington operates out of the slot to exploit vacated areas in zone defenses. Strange provides a physical presence over the middle, which assists the team in short-yardage situations.
One potential area of concern is that any regression in OL protection could disrupt the timing required for Udinski’s intermediate route concepts to develop, so Washington’s redesigned defensive scheme and anticipated upgraded pass rush could provide an advantage. Nevertheless, the continuity of the coaching staff suggests that the Jaguars will retain a high-floor offensive structure built around depth and quarterback distribution – but then, we said the same thing about the Commanders heading into 2025.
From Pro Football Focus:
Jaguars receiving corps must avoid drops to unlock Trevor Lawrence’s next step
Last season, the Jacksonville Jaguars‘ skill position players struggled with one of football’s most fundamental skills: catching the ball.
Jacksonville’s receiving options dropped 40 of their 417 catchable targets in 2025, producing a 9.6% drop rate. It was the highest mark by any NFL offense since the abysmal 2021 New York Jets (who were worse by a fraction of a percentage). Regardless of how productive an offense may be elsewhere, giving away that many completions makes it significantly more difficult to sustain drives.
After several seasons showing flashes without consistently putting everything together, he took another step forward in Liam Coen’s first season as head coach.
One of the biggest changes came in how Lawrence operated within the offense. Over the 2023 and 2024 seasons, his average time to throw ranked third-fastest in the NFL. Coen’s system incorporates longer-developing route concepts, requiring the quarterback to be more patient. Lawrence consequently slowed all the way down to 21st in average time to throw in 2025.
A remarkable 21.4% of Jacksonville’s targets were contested in 2025, the second-highest rate posted by any NFL team over the past five seasons.
Before Jacksonville’s Week 8 bye, 19.0% of the team’s targets were contested. After the bye, that figure climbed to 23.4%, indicating Lawrence became even more willing to attack tight coverage despite the drops continuing to pile up throughout.
In the passing game, there is no doubt that Jacksonville’s receiving corps left production on the field. Twelve different Jaguars offensive players dropped at least one pass during the season, illustrating that the issue extended well beyond one or two struggling receivers. Brian Thomas Jr. finished with a team-high eight drops.
Defense
The defense also enters its second season under DC Anthony Campanile, aiming to sustain the identity established last year. In 2025, Campanile orchestrated a defensive turnaround, transforming a unit that struggled in 2024 into the league’s top-ranked run defense. The Jags allowed just 85.6 rushing yards per game and forced 31 takeaways, setting multiple franchise records. Despite head-coaching interest from multiple teams, Campanile, like Udinski, signed a contract extension to remain in Jacksonville, providing the defense with schematic continuity.
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What makes Campanile’s defense stand out is its emphasis on extreme physical style and situational flexibility rather than rigid structural alignments. The system prioritizes stopping the run first to make opposing offenses one-dimensional. From there, the scheme utilizes heavy defensive line rotations and a distinct third-safety role to disguise coverage lookups and generate pressure. This approach forces high turnover volume by restricting intermediate passing lanes and forcing opposing quarterbacks into quick, contested throws. With the mental processing skill, arm talent and mobility of Jayden Daniels, the Commanders may have the offensive field general needed to overcome the Jags stifling defense.
Defensive ends Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker remain the primary focal points of the front seven. Walker, who signed a four-year extension in April, is expected to assume a larger role after injuries limited his total production last season. His ability to set the edge is vital to maintaining the team’s top-tier run metrics. In the secondary, safety Antonio Johnson represents a critical piece of the coverage unit, coming off a season where he earned high marks for his versatility in both slot coverage and run support.
The unit faces potential challenges due to roster turnover at the second level, specifically following the departure of linebacker Devin Lloyd. This increases pressure on veteran linebacker Foye Oluokun and young starter Ventrell Miller, and may present an opportunity for the Commanders running and passing attacks. Furthermore, the depth of the safety group, which relies heavily on Eric Murray and projected third-safety Caleb Ransaw, will be tested within Campanile’s multi-safety packages. If the secondary depth holds, the defensive front retains the necessary talent to remain an elite tier unit in 2026.
Key statistical 2025 rankings
Offensive Rankings
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Scoring Offense: 6th (27.9 points per game)
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Total Offense: 11th (337.4 total yards per game)
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Passing Offense: 12th (222.3 passing yards per game)
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Rushing Offense: 20th (115.1 rushing yards per game)
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Defensive Rankings
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Rushing Defense: 1st (85.6 rushing yards allowed per game)
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Scoring Defense: 8th (19.8 points allowed per game)
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Total Defense: 11th (303.6 total yards allowed per game)
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Passing Defense: 21st (218.1 passing yards allowed per game)
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Takeaways: 1st-t (31 total forced turnovers)
Roster Moves: Trades, Free Agency and the Draft
Trades
The Jags were rather quiet in the trade market in 2026, making a single player-for-player trade, sending DL Maason Smith to the Falcons in return for DL Ruke Orhorhoro.
They did not have a 1st round pick in the 2026 draft because they had sent it to the Browns in the deal to trade up and pick Travis Hunter in 2025.
Free Agency
Key Free agent signings
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TE Brenton Strange (extension)
Free agent losses
The 2026 NFL Draft
Round 2, No. 56: Nate Boerkircher (TE, Texas A&M) – A 6-foot-5, 245-pound run-blocking tight end taken in the second round to fit into multiple tight end formations.
Round 3, No. 81: Albert Regis (DT, Texas A&M) – A versatile interior defensive lineman who addresses the run-game rotation at both nose tackle and three-technique.
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Round 3, No. 88: Emmanuel Pregnon (G, Oregon) – An ultra-experienced, first-team All-American guard with 51 starts who excels in both run and pass blocking.
Round 3, No. 100: Jalen Huskey (DB, Maryland) – A highly productive defensive back selected for safety depth after logging 11 interceptions over the last three seasons.
Round 4, No. 119: Wesley Williams (LB, Duke) – A productive edge rusher and defensive run stopper who doubles as an elite special teams weapon with five blocked kicks.
Round 5, No. 164: Tanner Koziol (TE, Houston) – A massive 6-foot-6 pass-catching threat who can line up in the slot after leading all FBS tight ends with 74 receptions last year.
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Round 6, No. 191: Josh Cameron (WR, Baylor) – A big, physical outside wide receiver drafted to serve as a reliable perimeter blocker and replacement for Tim Patrick.
Round 6, No. 203: CJ Williams (WR, Stanford) – A 6-foot-1 perimeter receiver who must leverage his frame to impress on special teams to secure a roster spot.
Round 7, No. 233: Zach Durfee (Edge, Washington) – A tall, stand-up edge rusher with 18 career college sacks who projects primarily as a developmental special teams contributor.
Round 7, No. 240: Parker Hughes (LB, Middle Tennessee) – An intriguing linebacker with 4.39 speed coming off a 100-tackle season who will look to make the roster via the practice squad.
QUICK READER POLL
Betting Lines
Oddsmakers have established the home team as the favorite for this matchup.
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Point Spread: Commanders +3.5
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Game Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
A 3.5-point spread favoring the home team is slightly more than standard, indicating that bettors would lean in favor of the Jaguars, who finished the 2025 season with 13 wins and a division title, on a neutral field in this late-season home game. The point total is set at 49.5, reflecting expectations of solid scoring by at least one of the two teams.
CONVERSATION STARTERS:
Which quarterback will have the better season, Lawrence or Daniels?
Do you expect Chris Rodriguez to thrive in Jacksonville and sign a 3rd contract in 2028?
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