Khamzat Chimaev is ready to take over the UFC. He will first have to get past the crafty Dricus du Plessis, who defends his middleweight title at UFC 319 on August 16 inside the United Center.
du Plessis (23-2) became the first South African to become UFC champion. Winner of eleven straight fights, the former kickboxing star has beaten three former champions. He has learned to adapt in every fight with his unique offense.
The fight is a long time coming for Chimaev (14-0), who recently broke the jaw of Robert Whittaker. One of the most dangerous fighters in MMA, the Chechen had a rocket ship strapped to his back early, and a win could propel him to superstardom.
UFC 319 will also see the octagon debut of Aaron Pico and the returns of Michael Page and Kai Asakura. Jessica Andrade once again competes this year, as does the surging Chase Hooper.
With the help of the FanDuel Sportsbook, The Sporting News makes predictions on the entire card at UFC 319.
UFC 319 expert picks and full card predictions
Dricus du Plessis (c) vs. Khamzat Chimaev for the UFC middleweight title
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Khamzat Chimaev is the -260 favorite, while Dricus du Plessis is the +196 underdog.
Chimaev lands 5.36 significant strikes per minute, has a 58% strike accuracy mark, and averages 4.31 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He’s competed in three fights where his opponents have landed zero significant strikes. du Plessis lands 6.12 significant strikes, has a 48% strike accuracy mark, and averages 2.55 takedowns landed. He’s landed 374 significant strikes in three fights.
It’s one of the most appetizing title fights of the last few years. Both have high skill levels and have everything to gain and lose.
Chimaev was destined for superstardom since his UFC debut, before a COVID-19 infection affected his career. Still, he’s a killer, using ground and pound to decimate the opposition. du Plessis has only been taken down three times in the UFC and is one of the most unorthodox fighters in MMA history. Just ask Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland.
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While not a serious factor, “DDP” is known for playing mind games. If he gets into Chimaev’s head and forces him to make mistakes, du Plessis can take advantage. One thing against the champion is that he’s offensively open, which Chimaev can easily take advantage of. For Chimaev, does he have a lengthy gas tank after the first round, especially against someone like du Plessis?
If Chimaev can grapple early, he should finish the fight in the first round. If it goes past the first? du Plessis will force him to work and slip by a few grappling attempts. Dricus may not knock him out, but he could give Chimaev trouble if his cardio is on point.
Sporting News prediction: du Plessis via unanimous decision
Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico; Featherweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Aaron Pico is the -184 favorite, while Lerone Murphy is the +142 underdog.
It’s Pico’s first fight in the octagon. The former Bellator prospect and wrestling champion has nine wins via knockout. Murphy lands 4.53 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.45 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He’s done some boxing training, which also makes him a lethal striker.
Pico has the confidence, though his resume doesn’t compare to Murphy’s. However, a left hook to the liver can still cause harm, regardless of who the opponent is. Pico can control all angles of the fight, but must get after a slippery Murphy. There was a point where he was the most wanted man in MMA. Pico should prove why in a tough fight where he breaks down Murphy’s body.
Sporting News prediction: Pico via TKO (round two)
Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates; Welterweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Carlos Prates is the -265 favorite, while Geoff Neal is the +200 underdog.
Prates lands 3.60 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.79 strikes. He has great cardio despite being a known cigarette smoker. Neal lands 5.50 significant strikes and absorbs 5.44 shots.
It’s a fight to prove if Prates is the real deal after saying he didn’t listen to his corner in his last contest. Neal is technical, but he may come forward. Prates wants that so they can duke it out. The latter is more comfortable even when feeling tired and could outlast Neal.
Sporting News prediction: Prates via TKO (round one)
Jared Cannonier vs. Michael “Venom” Page; Middleweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, “MVP” is the -205 favorite, while Jared Cannonier is the +158 underdog.
Page is a former kickboxing champion and Bellator title contender. He landed 41 significant strikes in his octagon debut against Kevin Holland. In just a short period of time, Page has landed 2.53 significant strikes. Cannonier lands 4.60 significant strikes and absorbs 4.49 strikes. He averages 0.46 takedowns landed.
Cannonier can strike with the best of them, but is not all that technical. Page is one of the most creative finishers in MMA. He can hang back and land one big counter shot for the win. His opponent presses forward, which is not ideal. Until proven otherwise, Page is the faster fighter who can force the fight in his favor.
Sporting News prediction: Page via unanimous decision
Tim Elliott vs. Kai Asakura; Flyweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Kai Asakura is the -350 favorite, while Tim Elliot is the +255 underdog.
Asakura lost his last fight for gold, getting taken down three times. He has thirteen wins via knockout and three via submission. Elliott lands 3.39 significant strikes per minute and averages 3.73 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
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One of Asakura’s most significant advantages is his size. He was a bantamweight in RIZIN and competes in a proper flyweight fight. Elliott is 38, but can easily control the fight on the floor. Asakura can knock his head off, but it’s unknown if he can adapt when being brought down in the octagon, something Elliott can take advantage of.
Sporting News prediction: Elliott via submission (round two)
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk; Middleweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Michal Oleksiejczuk is the -250 favorite, while Gerald Meerschaert is the +190 underdog.
Oleksiejczuk lands 5.27 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.05 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He absorbs 4.51 significant strikes. Meerschaert lands 3.05 significant strikes and averages 1.86 takedowns landed. Since losing against Chimaev, he’s gone 6-5.
On the floor, Oleksiejczuk might have the edge. He will have the edge on the feet, especially if the fight turns into a brawl. Meerschaert is as tough as they come, but his recent luck is not providing confidence in his ability to win.
Sporting News prediction: Oleksiejczuk via TKO (round one)
Jessica Andrade vs. Loopy Godinez; Strawweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Loopy Godinez is the -160 favorite, while Jessica Andrade is the +124 underdog.
Andrade lands 6.39 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.49 strikes. The busy fighter has fought eight times since 2023. Godinez lands 4.28 significant strikes and averages 3.12 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. She has landed eight in her last two fights.
Against some of the top fighters in the division, Godinez has struggled. However, she faces a former champion in Andrade, who has recently sustained significant damage. Andrade still packs a punch, but the competition continues to adapt. Godinez should be able to glide past Andrade and give her some trouble early on, especially on the floor.
Sporting News prediction: Godinez via unanimous decision
Baysangur Susurkaev vs. Eric Nolan; Middleweights
Betting odds are not yet available for this fight.
Susurkaev fought days ago, earning a contract after a knockout win on Dana White’s Contender Series. He has eight wins via knockout. Nolan has four wins via knockout, winning three straight via the power punch.
It is a risky fight for Susurkaev, looking to prove himself after an impressive debut in the octagon. However, he’s ready to do whatever it takes to win. Both will be swinging away, and if all goes according to plan, Susurkaev should win via knockout.
Sporting News prediction: Susurkaev via KO (round one)
Chase Hooper vs. Alexander Hernandez; Lightweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Chase Hooper is the -350 favorite, while Alexander Hernandez is the +255 underdog.
Hooper lands 4.53 significant strikes per minute. He also averages 2.59 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, landing twelve in his last three fights. Hernandez lands 4.38 significant strikes and averages 1.24 takedowns.
Since calling out and losing to Donald Cerrone, Hernandez has traded wins and losses. Against top-tier strikers, Hernandez has struggled. Hooper has managed to work past elder fighters and forced slippery fighters to submit. The latter appears more loose compared to Hernandez, and could force him to make a mistake, which has happened more frequently of late, and submit him.
Sporting News prediction: Hooper via submission (round two)
Edson Barboza vs. Drakkar Klose; Lightweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Edson Barboza is the -146 favorite, while Drakkar Kloose is the +114 underdog.
Barboza lands 4.11 significant strikes per minute and has a 44% strike accuracy mark. He averages 0.45 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, but is susceptible to the takedown. Klose lands 4.33 significant strikes and has a 55% accuracy mark. He averages 1.65 takedowns landed.
Barboza struggled against Lerone Murphy last time out, getting hit with 220 significant strikes. Klose’s strikes hurt, but he can make mistakes, which forces him to defend against the opposition’s strikes. Barboza is solid within the clinch and has a significant reach advantage. Expect both to help Barboza’s cause in the fight.
Sporting News prediction: Barboza via unanimous decision
Bryan Battle vs. Nursulton Ruziboev; Middleweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Bryan Battle is the -174 favorite, while Nursulton Ruziboev is the +136 underdog.
Battle lands 5.12 significant strikes per minute and has a 52% strike accuracy mark. He is susceptible to the takedown. Ruziboev averages around 0.75 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Ruziboev lands 2.59 significant strikes and has a 46% strike accuracy mark.
Against Joaquin Buckley, Ruziboev struggled to put him away. The colorful Battle has used his hands to strike through his opponent’s defense, improving with each fight. Given the level of competition both have faced and his growth, Battle may walk out with another win. Hopefully, he gets the mic after.
Sporting News prediction: Battle via unanimous decision
Karine Silva vs. Dione Barbosa; Flyweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Karine Silva is the -235 favorite, while Dione Barbosa is the +180 underdog.
Silva lands 3.04 significant strikes per minute, has a 38% strike accuracy mark, and averages 2.79 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. She has landed nine takedowns in five fights. Barbosa lands 2.35 strikes, has a 50% strike accuracy mark, and averages 1.93 takedowns. She’s landed five takedowns in four UFC fights.
Despite losing her last fight, Silva can attack from all angles. “Killer” may give Barbosa trouble on the floor and can even strike her down. However, Barbosa is sneaky. She has recently faced and thrived against elite-level competition, leading The Sporting News to believe an early upset is possible.
Sporting News prediction: Barbosa via unanimous decision
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