Tennessee, Josh Heupel have a Kirby Smart problem — and they can’t take the next step until they solve it

Thanks largely to his explosive offense, coach Josh Heupel has helped Tennessee turn the tide in previously lopsided rivalry series with Alabama and Florida. He has also done a great job of protecting home-field advantage at Neyland Stadium, where he owns a sparkling record. The one big thorn in his side? Georgia.

Dating back to Nov. 20, 2021, Tennessee has won 23 of its last 24 games at Neyland. The lone loss came in 2023 — to Georgia. Not only have the Bulldogs beaten the Vols under Heupel; they’ve done so comfortably, winning each matchup by at least 14 points.

In fairness to Heupel, this Georgia problem pre-dates him. The Bulldogs have won eight straight over Tennessee and this weekend in Knoxville (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC) could become only the second SEC team ever to win nine consecutive games by at least 14 points against one opponent (the last to do so was Florida against South Carolina from 1994-2002). 

For Heupel and the Vols to finally get over the hump, they’ll have to solve Kirby Smart’s defense. Between Smart’s tactical acumen and Georgia’s loaded roster, Tennessee’s fast-paced, high-scoring attack has consistently ground to a halt in this annual matchup.

By the numbers, Tennessee’s offense has been prolific under Heupel — except against Georgia, where its production in both yards and points has fallen off a cliff.

The most disappointing performance by a Heupel offense against Georgia’s defense came in 2022. Tennessee had just been crowned the No. 1 team in the College Football Playoff rankings, Heisman Trophy contender Hendon Hooker was leading the offense and Biletnikoff Award winner Jalin Hyatt headlined a group of skill position players that also included Cedric Tillman, Bru McCoy and Jaylen Wright.

In a 27-13 loss, Hooker threw for just 195 yards and an interception while Hyatt and Tillman combined for 13 catches and 131 yards. Most of that already meager production came late in the fourth quarter with Tennessee down by multiple scores.

How Georgia has stifled Tennessee

CBS Sports college football analyst Blake Brockermeyer turned on the tape from the 2022 matchup to get a better sense of how Smart has consistently thwarted Heupel’s offense. 

What Brockermeyer saw was a masterful defensive plan — and plenty of self-inflicted mistakes by Tennessee.

“Smart limited Tennessee’s explosive offense in a variety of ways in a stifling defensive performance, but it was also a well-executed game by the entire Georgia team to control the game by field position, time of possession, and playing with a sizable lead almost the entire game,” Brockermeyer said. “Crowd noise and penalties were a huge factor as Tennessee struggled mightily in that area and was constantly behind schedule.”

The good news for the Vols? This year’s game is at Neyland, where Gunner Stockton and the Georgia offense will have to contend with the noise.

The bad news? Much of what Smart used in 2022 can be carried over to Saturday’s showdown with Joey Aguilar and Tennessee.

Here’s what stood out most to Brockermeyer on film:

• Georgia had “a lot of success with simulated pressures,” which kept Hendon Hooker on his back foot.
• Smart “limited the Vols’ explosive shots” by playing with split safeties and constantly “mixing up the pictures.”
• The Bulldogs forced everything in front of the safeties while playing man coverage on the boundary.
• Georgia’s defensive line dominated Tennessee up front.
• The Bulldogs consistently “tackled well in 1v1 situations” after Vol playmakers got the ball.

It wasn’t all bad for Tennessee. Brockermeyer noted receivers open over the middle that went unnoticed, moderate success running between the tackles, and a few plays Hooker created with his legs.

3 ways Tennessee turns the tables

Improved OL play

So, what’s it going to take for the Vols’ offense to get out of neutral against the Bulldogs? For starters, the reworked offensive line has to hold up against Georgia’s front seven. Over the last four matchups, the Volunteers have surrendered a total of 18 sacks while averaging just 3.0 yards per carry on the ground. That won’t cut it.

To this point, Tennessee’s offensive line has been relatively clean in those areas. Through two games, the big men up front have paved the way for 505 rushing yards, and they have yet to allow a sack of Aguilar. Again, that’s against Syracuse and ETSU, but the line has handled its business quite well. 

The big key for Tennessee’s offensive line will be making Georgia pay if the Bulldogs decide to go lighter in the box. Over the last four years, Smart hasn’t needed to load the box because his defensive line has simply beaten the Vols’ offensive line straight up. Until the Vols prove they can win in the trenches consistently, Georgia can keep the ball in front of those safeties with relative ease.

Breakouts at WR

Over the last three meetings between these two teams, Tennessee’s longest completion was 28 yards by Jalin Hyatt in 2022. Trying to piece together two or three methodical drives against this Georgia defense seems like a tall task, so the Vols’ receivers will have to shake loose for some chunk plays.

Coming into the 2025 season, there were questions about the Volunteers’ wide receiver room. Those questions remain with Georgia on deck. Mike Matthews and Braylon Staley, a pair of highly skilled former four-star recruits, have flashed real potential in the first two games. If one or both of those players lives up to their recruiting pedigree, it will be a huge boost for the Tennessee offense.

The same goes for Tulane transfer Chris Brazzell II, who is in his second year with the team. Brazzell had some nice moments in 2024, but he totaled just 333 yards and two scores. Can he find another gear in Heupel’s offense?

If Georgia is going to play man against Tennessee’s wideouts, one or more of the aforementioned players will have to win over the middle and downfield. If Aguilar has to sit in the pocket and wait on his receivers to create separation, the Bulldogs’ defensive line could have a field day.

Aguilar makes the big throws

To put it simply, Aguilar will have to play the best game of his career if Tennessee’s offense is going to succeed. Through his first two games with the Vols, Aguilar has been fairly accurate while operating the offense with poise and pace, but Smart will almost certainly have something up his sleeve for the UCLA transfer. If Smart’s defense can present major problems for Hooker, who had 21 games of experience in Heupel’s system, it could give Aguilar all kinds of fits in just his third start as a Volunteer. That could spell trouble for a quarterback who was turnover prone at his previous school.

Having said all of that, there were a few interesting takeaways from Brockermeyer’s breakdown that could work in Tennessee’s favor. He noted that the Vols had more success throwing over the middle of the field, got the slot receiver matched up on the safety on vertical routes and got some open looks. Brockermeyer said Hooker “had a tough night throwing the ball accurately,” so Tennessee couldn’t cash in when those opportunities presented themselves.

When Tennessee pass-catchers get some space on Saturday, Aguilar has to hit them in stride. It’s one thing to miss a shot play against Syracuse or ETSU — another one may present itself shortly thereafter. It’s quite another to miss would-be explosive plays against Georgia. You only get so many chances.