“Past is prologue.” It’s been more than 400 years since Shakespeare wrote that line in “The Tempest,” but it still rings true.
When it comes to the AP Top 25 or Coaches Poll, we all get frustrated when voters lean too heavily on last season and brush aside what we’ve actually seen on the field. Instead of throwing preseason expectations out the window, they treat them as gospel while dismissing early results as flukes.
Power ratings should be different. If opinion polls are reactive, power polls are predictive. They’re not about what has happened, but what’s most likely to happen next. And when it comes to forecasting the future, history is often the best guide. Teams — and humans — are predictable. They repeat patterns, just in slightly different ways.
That’s why a strong power rating must always bake in some history, but with the right balance of past and present. The deeper we go into the season, the more weight 2025 performances will carry. Last week brought little movement, but this week delivers plenty of change — and a clear top tier is starting to form. The top five are tightly packed, with a noticeable drop off behind them.
Our No. 1 stays put, but there’s a new No. 2. And in a reflection of the sport’s current balance of power, 10 of our top 12 teams hail from the SEC or Big Ten. The ACC has one. Then there’s Notre Dame.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
2025 Fornelli Power Ratings
Fell outside top 12: Clemson, Michigan, Texas A&M
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