Players Championship picks 2026: ‘I’ve watched enough golf to know Morikawa will be in the mix’

We’ve arrived, folks. The meat of the golf season is upon us, and this week’s Players Championship is the first major event upon us. Call it a major, call it whatever you want: For those of us who love to bet on golf, play fantasy golf or enter pools, the Players is one of the biggest weeks of the year. And you’ve arrived at one of the most comprehensive betting previews in golf, which we’ve published every week since gambling was legalized in 2018.

RELATED: Players Championship picks 2026: 6 longshot bets we absolutely love at TPC Sawgrass

Our Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of some of the most respected experts in the industry: Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, Ryan Noonan of Betsperts and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. We’ve already nailed two outright winners—two 60-1 longshots at that. Our matchup record is squeaky clean, too. You’ve come to the right place.

Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2026 Players Championship:

The Players Championship picks 2026: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions

Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Si Woo Kim (24-1, DraftKings) — Consistency isn’t necessarily a word used to describe Si Woo, but he’s morphed into a brand-new player since the start of FedEx Cup playoffs a year ago. Kim has played 11 PGA Tour events in that time, hasn’t missed a cut, and finished top 20 in eight of those starts. For the year, he’s second to only McIlroy in SG:APP/Round and is currently posting career highs in driving numbers, hitting over 70 percent of his fairways in 2026. Now, there is one glaring issue: he can’t putt. That too has been quite consistent. Fortunately, if there’s one metric that can swing wildly in a random week, it’s putting. In the past five years at Sawgrass, Si Woo has gained on the greens twice and lost three times. Gaining as much as 4.77 strokes putting in 2024, while losing 2.50 in the years surrounding it. His tee-to-green play is currently among the elite players on tour so I’ll take my chances he can luck into a hot putting week.

Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Collin Morikawa (+2050, DraftKings) — Collin Morikawa is a mega chalk pick at The Players. I’ve watched enough golf to know Morikawa will be in the mix on Sunday afternoon. Collin is playing with a ton of confidence, and that can’t be ignored. With many questions around the other top contenders, why not Morikawa? Driving accuracy? Check. Approach play? Check. And major closing ability? Check! Too often, we overthink the obvious when picking outrights. Collin has finished in the top seven three consecutive times on tour and has two top-13 finishes in his past three trips to TPC Sawgrass. Trust what makes the most sense.

Watch a comprehensive betting preview from Read The Line’s Keith Stewart, Joe Idone and John Haslbauer here.

Ryan Noonan, Content Manager 4for4/Betsperts: Tommy Fleetwood (27-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — I wish Tommy Fleetwood had played better at Bay Hill, but I’m not going to pretend that he’s not a top-tier golfer because he was out of sorts a bit at Arnie’s place. He’s made 13 starts worldwide since the start of the 2025 FedEx Cup Playoffs, winning twice with five other T-4 or better finishes. The best version of Tommy is a major championship winner, even if it’s just the 5th major.

Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Collin Morikawa (+2050, DraftKings) — I wanted to go with Si Woo here, as his ball-striking numbers are tops on tour over the past 30 rounds. But I trust Morikawa’s putter more, which is crazy to say. He won at Pebble Beach with losing strokes on the putting greens, and now he has gained strokes putting the past two weeks. TPC Sawgrass should be a great fit for Morikawa’s precision game—and he’ll be back to lifting big-time trophies.

Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Hideki Matsuyama (37-1, DraftKings) — This is the type of Hideki price everyone kicks themselves over when he’s raising another trophy on Sunday. With some questions about Scottie’s irons and Rory’s back, it’s really only Collin Morikawa among the top names on the board who scares me this week. It’s the perfect spot for Deki to lie in the weeds and avenge his WMPO debacle. The tee-to-green game is there, the around-the-green game remains world-class, and, most importantly, the course history is there, especially recently. Matsuyama tied for sixth here in 2024, finished solo fifth in 2023 and infamously held the first-round lead thanks to a nine-under 63 before the world shut down in 2020.

Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Ludvig Aberg (27-1, DraftKings) — This feels the perfect breakout spot for the young Swede to get his first huge victory. Aberg’s ball-striking looked stellar at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He gained over five strokes on approach and ranked third in driving accuracy. This is the exact formula I am looking for at TPC Sawgrass.

Past results: We have our SECOND winner of 2026, with Ryan Noonan hitting his first-ever outright as a member of the panel, correctly predicting Nico Echavarria’s win at the Cognizant Classic at 60-1. That makes two 60-1 hits for our panel this year, with Stephen Hennessey nailing Justin Rose’s Farmers win at 60-1, too.

Listen to Golf Digest’s weekly betting podcast, “The Loop,” (above) where we interview the industry’s leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to “The Loop” wherever you get your podcasts!

The Players Championship picks 2026: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win

Mayo: Nicolai Hojgaard (86-1, DraftKings) — One down week won’t throw me off Nicolai Hojgaard. He remains one of the six best ball-strikers of 2026 and is one of seven players averaging over 1.50 SG/total per round. Hojgaard is the only one of those seven players you can actually find down the odds board.

Stewart: Chris Gotterup (50-1, FanDuel) — I think we need to pay attention to Chris Gotterup in big events. The three-time tour winner continues to perform even when the venue doesn’t appear to fit. Positive on approach in five straight starts, Gotterup’s heavy fade off the tee will keep him in the fairway. From there, he can attack and score. I’m not worried about Sunday at Bay Hill; that course was literally dead at the end of play. Gotterup also has some TPC Sawgrass from last year. An aggressive player who is competing with tons of confidence, Gotterup is about to elevate his career in a big way.

RELATED: Players Championship 2026: Chris Gotterup hasn’t stumbled into stardom. Every sign pointed to his current place among world’s best

Noonan: Daniel Berger (60-1, BetMGM) — I grabbed a 100-1 on Daniel Berger on Friday during the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and the market has corrected. Overall, it’s hard not to be encouraged by how Daniel Berger played at Bay Hill. He’s added ball speed without sacrificing accuracy off the tee, and we can add him to the long list of golfers who’ve changed their trajectory on the greens after teaming up with putting coach Phil Kenyon. Berger’s last three starts at Sawgrass (T-9, T-13, and T-20) are encouraging given his form. I don’t love chasing this current number into the 50s, but I think a 6-1 top-10 price is a great way to play it if you missed this future number.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Adam Scott (70-1, FanDuel) — We spoke with Hal Sutton on The Loop podcast this week, he of two Players titles. Sutton, at age 41, fended off Tiger Woods in 2000 amid when Tiger was playing the best golf of his storied career. I kept thinking … who would be the Sutton of today? Scott has a major and a Players title to his name, just like Sutton did in 2000. He’s top 20 in SG/approach and SG/tee to green over the past 30 rounds, per the Betsperts Rabbit Hole. He’s very quietly playing great golf—finishing fourth at Riviera and T-11 at Bay Hill. I also love that he’s putting great over the past two events. I think we all expect Scott to make one more charge at a big title in his career, and I think the 45-year-old will make it this week.

Powers, Golf Digest: Brooks Koepka (65-1, FanDuel) — Lord forgive me, but it’s time to go back to the old me. The old me would see 65-1 next to Brooks’ name and would sprint to the window Usain Bolt-style to bet it. I have not changed a bit. Plus, he looked good at the Cog! T-9! He’s eighth in SG/tee-to-green on tour! He’s a hot putting week away from being Brooks again. If the move to March has taught us anything, it’s that this is a big-boy tournament. Koepka has won some big-boy tournaments in his life. I’m probably too early, but it’s worth a shot before he flashes again and returns to top-of-the-odds-board territory. What a hilarious storyline it would be, too, if he wins the tour’s flagship event after returning from LIV. All in on it.

Lack: Corey Conners (94-1, DraftKings) — Corey Conners is a very boring, old school, perfect course fit at TPC Sawgrass. He’s one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in the field, and an excellent all-around approach player. We have seen this skill set succeed at the Players time and again, and I have a strong premonition that the Canadian may surprise this week.

RELATED: Players Championship picks 2026: Our DFS expert loves this past champion

The Players Championship picks 2026: Players We’re Fading

Mayo: Ludvig Aberg (20-1, BetRivers) — This feels dirty, and yes he does have one good result at Sawgrass in two starts, but give me Ludvig at long, difficult courses; not positional tracks where electric short irons win the day.

Stewart: Si Woo Kim (25-1, BetMGM) — Si Woo Kim is a past champion of this event (2017) and comes in as one of the best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour in 2026. Based upon his tee-to-green play, Kim can finish in the top 20. Without a massive turnaround with the putter, Si Woo won’t win. Kim is losing an average of two and a quarter strokes per tournament with his putter. 2.25!! Si Woo is a sensational player, but losing that many strokes to an elite field, even with a positive course history, is just too much to overcome.

Noonan: Patrick Cantlay (50-1, BetRivers) — We really haven’t seen anything from Patrick Cantlay yet in 2026. He missed the cut last week at Bay Hill, and he’s bleeding strokes on the greens these days. The recent results have been particularly poor, but Cantlay is now losing strokes putting over the past 75 rounds, and his ball-striking numbers have dipped massively as well.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Rory McIlroy (14-1, BetRivers) — I would’ve loved Rory to go back to back, but the back stuff is concerning.

Powers, Golf Digest: Rory McIlroy (14-1, BetRivers) — Are we positive he’s even playing yet? According to the PGA Tour Communications email the media received this afternoon, his pre-tournament presser, scheduled for early Wednesday morning, is now “TBD.” Not a good sign.

Lack: Rory McIlroy (14-1, BetRivers) — With the recent reports that Rory McIlroy is good to go, but will not be teeing it up in a practice round this week, I have enough skepticism to let the defending champion beat me again at 14-1.

RELATED: Players Championship 2026: Power rankings for the entire field at TPC Sawgrass

The Players Championship picks 2026: Matchups

Mayo: Taylor Pendrith (+105) over Christiaan Bezuidenhout (Coolbet) — Pendrith is getting juiced up odds vs Bez all because of a skills profile. That’s logical, however, Pendrith has done some of his best work at the shorter courses on the PGA Tour. And Pendrith is fresh off a week at Bay Hill where he was eighth in driving and second in approach. He just happened to be dead last in putting. Good news: the Canadian has gained strokes on the greens at Sawgrass in eight of 12 career rounds.

Stewart: Adam Scott (-112) over Ben Griffin (DraftKings) — Where has the 2025 version of Ben Griffin been? Griffin has one top 20 in 2026 (Sony Open) and missed the cut at the API. The driver has been wild, and his approach game has been inconsistent. Adam Scott has yet to miss a cut in five 2026 starts and finished fourth at Riviera and T-11 at the API. I’ll take the 2004 Players champion and his ball-striking over Ben this week.

Noonan: Sepp Straka (-134) over Brooks Koepka (Bet365) — I don’t mind Brooks this week, and kudos to the early shoppers who scooped big outright numbers on him, but I like this setup for Sepp Straka. Straka’s finished T-16 or better in three of his past four trips to TPC Sawgrass, and rates out sixth in the field in SG/correlated courses over the past two years. His putter is a problem at times, as was the case on Sunday at Bay Hill, but he’s up an average of 0.23 strokes per round on Poa Trivialis greens over the past two seasons, his best rate on any surface.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jake Knapp (-105) over Robert MacIntyre (BetMGM) — Our Chris Powers got some boots on the ground insight into Knapp’s surprising WD at Bay Hill last week—his back flared up, and Knapp has been able to play 18 holes in practice rounds so far this week pain free. That’s all I need to be back on the Knapp train. He’s been one of the most consistent golfers in the world in 2026—the perfect player to back in a matchup if he’s nearly 100 percent.

Powers, Golf Digest: Rickie Fowler (-110) over Shane Lowry (Bet365) — I’m banking on Lowry to still be reeling off the Cog, while Fowler has been trending really nicely all year.

Lack: Wyndham Clark (+115) over Justin Thomas (Southpoint) — Justin Thomas looked entirely out of sorts last week at Bay Hill, and may take a few more reps for him to get back up to speed with competitive golf. I’m willing to take a chance at plus money on Wyndham Clark here, who has already shown his meddle on this golf course before.

Matchup Results from the Arnold Palmer Invitational: Lack: 1 for 1 (M.W. Lee (-120) over Griffin); Powers 1 for 1 (Scott (-116) over Rose); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Noren (-105) over Taylor); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Fowler (-124) over McNealy); Noonan: 1 for 1 (Morikawa (-137) over Cantlay); Stewart: 0 for 1

Matchup Results from the 2026 season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Lack: 6-1-1 (up 4.09 units); Powers: 6-2-0 (up 3.47 units); Mayo: 5-3-0 (up 2.26 units); Stewart: 4-2-1 (up 1.46 units); Hennessey: 4-4-0 (down 0.45 units); Noonan: 3-4-1 (down 1.52 units)

More Players Championship Preview stories

Crunching the Numbers 52 fun stats for 52 years of the Players Championship

Course Strategy Players 2026: 3 weird spots you see players miss at TPC Sawgrass

What-If History 11 ways golf would be different if the Players Championship was a major all along

The Players Championship picks 2026: Top 10s

Mayo: Sepp Straka (+495, DraftKings) — I’ve been on him every week this season, so don’t see why I’d stop now as the ball-striking has been amazing outside of the weekend at Riviera. He’s contended for a win every time he has putted decently this year too. He’s won on a Dye design with Poa Trivialis greens (2025 AMEX) and at a waterlogged, Florida course demanding precision off the tee (2022 Honda Classic). Straka has finished top 20 three of the past four years at Sawgrass and entered with high-end, consistent results.

Stewart: Viktor Hovland (+400, Bet365) — The putter and approach game were on point for Viktor Hovland at Bay Hill. The iron game is Hovland’s most consistent skill, and even though his driver has been a little bit off, Hovland’s history off the tee at TPC Sawgrass is great. The Stadium Course rewards aggressive players, and we know Viktor tends to play with his foot on the gas. I’ll take the 10 places for a player who has two top 10 finishes at The Players in his last four Sawgrass starts.

Noonan: Si Woo Kim (+250, Bet365) — Si Woo ranks first or second in a handful of stat categories for me this week, including SG/tee-to-green with high water danger, SG/off-the-tee on courses that aren’t driver-heavy, and scoring opportunities inside five and 15 feet over the past 36 rounds. He’s going to keep the ball in play off the tee, as well. We just need him to make a few putts. Working in our favor? Si Woo is +0.13 strokes putting on Poa Trivialis greens over the past two seasons, the only course where he’s gained on the field.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jake Knapp (+490, FanDuel) — See above and my matchup commentary with a hat tip to CP.

Powers, Golf Digest: Jake Knapp (+490, FanDuel) — One of the benefits of having my boots on the ground this week at Sawgrass is I was able to catch up with swing coach Boyd Summerhays, who began working with Jake Knapp earlier this year. The mysterious WD from Bay Hill last week was actually a back issue for Knapp, per Summerhays. A product of playing a ton of golf so far in 2026. Four days off were just what the doctor ordered, though. Knapp played nine holes Monday and nine more on Tuesday and, according to Summerhays, was swinging it well. I expect him to resume his scorching hot start to 2026, when he’s finished T-11 or better in all five starts and leads the tour in scoring average.

Lack: Alex Noren (+650, BetRivers) — Alex Noren has been quietly playing some solid golf this year, and he won twice on the DP World Tour at the end of last season. He drove the ball extremely straight last week at Bay Hill and has already recorded three top-20 finishes in seven appearances at the Players.

Top-10 results from the Arnold Palmer Invitational: Powers: 1 for 1 (Collin Morikawa +240); Everybody else: 0 for 1

Top-10 results from the 2026 season: Mayo: 3 for 8 (up 8.7 units); Noonan: 3 for 8 (up 6.6 units); Stewart: 2 for 8 (up 0.65 units); Powers: 2 for 8 (up 0.5 units); Lack: 1 for 8 (down 1 unit); Hennessey: 0 for 8 (down 8 units)

More Players Championship Preview stories

Golf Digest Logo We asked tour pros: Should the Players be a major? Their answers might surprise you

Tee Times Players 2026 tee times: Pairings for the first and second round at TPC Sawgrass

Course Strategy Players 2026: The 8 most underrated shots at TPC Sawgrass

About our experts

Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.

Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest. Stewart is a co-founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the PGA Tour, LPGA and TGL. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter for the industry’s best betting narratives. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.

Ryan Noonan is the Betting Content Manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writing articles and hosting multiple shows under the Betsperts Group umbrella, including Move The Line and our Betsperts Golf Betting Show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan.

Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.

Read the full article here