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NHL draft lottery odds: Canucks hope for first No. 1 pick ever

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NHL draft lottery odds: Canucks hope for first No. 1 pick ever

As the Stanley Cup Playoffs trudge on, much of the NHL has already turned its attention to the future.

Among those teams? The Vancouver Canucks, who are looking for their first ever No. 1 pick in the NHL Entry Draft lottery. As they look to find a new GM to replace Patrik Allvin, who was fired in April, the Canucks look to finally be entering a much-needed rebuild. With 18.5% odds to get the No. 1 overall pick and Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg looking like distinct possibilities, 2026 may give the franchise the jolt it needs.

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While the team with best odds to get the No. 1 pick has retained it in three of the past five years, 2025 saw a stunning climb when the New York Islanders jumped from the 10th-best odds to land defenseman Matthew Schaefer first. Behind the Canucks are the Chicago Blackhawks – who landed Connor Bedard No. 1 overall in 2023 – and the New York Rangers, who won the most shocking lottery in NHL history in 2020.

The Toronto Maple Leafs will be in their first draft under new GM John Chayka, but could be without a first-round pick. With the fifth-best odds to get the No. 1 overall pick, Toronto has a top-five protected pick that would go to the Boston Bruins if it is No. 6 or lower.

As always, it all comes down to the luck of the draw.

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How does the NHL Entry Draft lottery work?

The NHL’s lottery system is similar but different to other ping-pong ball-based lottery systems.

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While worse records still result in better odds to get drawn and the worst record has better odds than the NBA (18.5% vs 14% tied with the second and third worst teams in the NBA), the NHL only allows teams to move up 10 spots from where they’re drawing. With that in mind, only the top 11 teams in odds have a chance to pick No. 1 overall (ending with the Blues this season).

The NHL also draws for the top two teams, meaning two teams could jump in the order (ergo, the Devils could pick No. 2 but not No. 1 from the No. 12 spot in the order). If, for example, the Islanders win the No. 1 pick from 13, they would pick third and Vancouver would retain its No. 1 spot.

When is the 2026 NHL Entry Draft lottery?

  • Date: Tuesday May 5, 2026

The NHL Entry Draft lottery will take place in Secaucus, New Jersey at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. Cord-cutters can watch on the ESPN app with ESPN+ or use Fubo, which offers a free trial.

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2026 NHL Entry Draft lottery odds

The Canucks (25-49-8, 58 points) have the best No. 1 pick odds at 18.5%. Behind them are the Blackhawks (29-39-14, 72 points) at 13.5% and the Rangers (34-9-9, 77 points) at 11.5%. Chicago, of course, jumped the Anaheim Ducks and Columbus Blue Jackets in 2023 to land Bedard, while the Rangers won a unique two-phase lottery in 2020 to get Alex Lafreniere.

Vancouver has never had the No. 1 overall pick.

Position

Team

No. 1 pick odds

1

Vancouver Canucks

18.5%

2

Chicago Blackhawks

13.5%

3

New York Rangers

11.5%

4

Calgary Flames

9.5%

5

Toronto Maple Leafs (conditional to Boston)

8.5%

6

Seattle Kraken

7.5%

7

Winnipeg Jets

6.5%

8

Florida Panthers

6%

9

San Jose Sharks

5%

10

Nashville Predators

3.5%

11

St. Louis Blues

3%

12

New Jersey Devils

2.5%

13

New York Islanders

2%

14

Columbus Blue Jackets

1.5%

15

St. Louis Blues (from Detroit)

0.5%

16

Washington Capitals

0.5%

When did potential lottery winners last win the NHL Entry Draft lottery?

Winning the lottery can be a franchise-defining move. Prospects are bright for the Blackhawks with Bedard, Macklin Celebrini has proven to be an elite force for the Sharks, and the Sabres have emerged as a force to reckoned with with Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power as two former No. 1 picks.

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Some teams are looking to pick first overall for the first time ever. Here’s a look at the last time the potential lottery winners picked first overall, and who they took.

Team

Year

Pick

Vancouver Canucks

Never

N/A

Chicago Blackhawks

2023

Connor Bedard

New York Rangers

2020

Alex Lafreniere

Calgary Flames

Never

N/A

Toronto Maple Leafs

2016

Auston Matthews

Seattle Kraken

Never

N/A

Winnipeg Jets

2001 (as Atlanta Thrashers)

Ilya Kovalchuk

Florida Panthers

2014

Aaron Ekblad

San Jose Sharks

2024

Macklin Celebrini

Nashville Predators

Never

N/A

St. Louis Blues

2006

Erik Johnson

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Who will win NHL draft lottery? Canucks lead odds, Blackhawks next

Read the full article here

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