CHICAGO — Major League Baseball’s trade deadline doesn’t arrive for another 2½ weeks, but here we are as the second half of the regular season begins, and we can already tell you the winners of the trade deadline.
The sellers.
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There are 23 teams still in first place or within four games of the wild-card race, meaning that there are just seven teams who plan to even moderately sell, with only the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants willing to do a complete fire sale.
In the words of one general manager: “If you’re going to have a bad year, this is the year to have it. It’s going to be a huge seller’s market unless things really shake out here in the next couple of weeks.”
These days, the playoff race is in such flux that a team can be sellers one week, and buyers the next.
More MLB trade deadline: Ranking the best trade targets for contenders
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Just look at the Boston Red Sox, who wallowed in mediocrity for three months, prepared to unload their high-priced veterans, only to go on a record-setting heater for two weeks, and now – at just half a game back in the wild-card race – should become buyers.
The San Diego Padres looked like they could be a formidable threat to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and now after the past month are talking about unloading All-Star closer Mason Miller and putting their high-priced stars on the market.
Who would imagine that these next 2½ weeks would not only decide the fate of two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, but perhaps the direction of 10 teams currently sitting outside of a playoff spot if the season ended today – but still within four games of a wild-card berth?
Here are the five most intriguing five teams to watch at the Aug. 3 trade deadline:
The Tigers weren’t listening to any offers when they were in the process of losing 21 of 25 games, but they were preparing to have their scouts scour the minor leagues to see what prospects they desired in any trade package for Tarik Skubal.
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They were 22-38 and 11½ games back with Skubal on the injured list on June 1, but they have since taken off with Skubal returning. They are now 6½ games out of first place and, more important, just 3½ games out of a wild-card berth. They also have a healthy rotation, which produced a 3.48 ERA, fourth-best in MLB at the All-Star break, while yielding the third-lowest batting average.
They badly need bullpen help after blowing 19 saves, the second-most in baseball, but if they find a late reliever or two and grab another right-handed bat, why should the Tigers punt in a season with a franchise-record payroll just to get some pieces for the future?
Sure, trading Skubal will fortify their farm system, but it will also crush the morale in the clubhouse and infuriate their passionate fan base.
Besides, the American League is completely wide open. Just get into the dance, and you can be the last one standing in October.
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And stop with the nonsense that the Tigers could thread the needle by trading Skubal and still adding pieces.
Trading Skubal, plain and simple, is surrendering.
Skubal could be the difference between a mesmerizing trade deadline and an awfully dull one.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants are a disaster.
You know it.
They know it.
And now they’re ready to blow it up.
You need a three-time batting champion? Second baseman Luis Arraez, who also has turned into a Gold Glove-caliber second baseman, can be yours.
You want a former Cy Young winner who can pitch under intense pressure and fortify any rotation? Ask for left-hander Robbie Ray.
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You got $100 million or more to spare? Ask for third baseman Matt Chapman, shortstop Willy Adames or first baseman Rafael Devers, and they can be all yours.
They’re all ears, too, if someone wants to engage in serious talks about outfielder Jung-Hoo Lee.
Hey, when you’re 19½ games out of first place, with a 41-55 record, you’re listening to everything except Logan Webb, Casey Schmitt and Bryce Eldridge.
New York Mets
This is the West Coast version of the Giants, and yes, they’ve got plenty to sell, too.
They will trade veteran starter Freddy Peralta, reliever Luke Weaver, reliever Huascar Brazoban, and perhaps closer Devin Williams.
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They will dump left-handed relievers Brooks Raley and A.J. Minter, right-hander Kodai Senga, and perhaps first baseman Mark Vientos, too.
And, don’t be surprised that if you ask for shortstop Francisco Lindor, who’s in the firth year of a 10-year, $341 million contract, David Stearns, president of baseball operations, stays on the phone listening.
Yes, Mets owner Steve Cohen did come out and say that Juan Soto and Lindor were staying put, but he also said that Stearns’s job is safe for two more years. And if Stearns didn’t want crowd favorite Pete Alonso around anymore, certainly he wouldn’t mind unloading Lindor’s contract.
Rival executives believe that Lindor will eventually be traded, but more likely in the offseason than now.
This is the team that everyone – well, at least outside the Friendly Confines at Wrigley Field – believes needs to be aggressive at the deadline.
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They won 97 games last season and knocked off the Chicago Cubs in the National League division series, but they were rudely bounced out of the NLCS by the Los Angeles Dodgers before knowing what hit them.
They have the most electrifying starter in Jacob Misiorowski.
They’ve got a solid No. 2 starter in Kyle Harrison, who’s on the injured list but is soon expected to return.
They’ve got a lineup that doesn’t scare you, but they sure can irritate you.
Now, if they are ever going to get back into the World Series for the first time since 1982, this is the time.
They still have loving memories of what CC Sabathia did for them in 2008, going 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA in 17 starts, ending the Brewers’ postseason drought, which has now turned into seven playoff appearances in the past eight years.
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They’ve got the second-best record in baseball this season at 59-37.
They’ve got the best farm system in baseball.
So, in the famous words of Theo Epstein when he acquired closer Aroldis Chapman for the Cubs in 2016 to take them to where they hadn’t gone since 1908, “If not now, when?”
This is the year the Brewers should go all in.
Don’t work the margins and hope your $2.5 million gamble on Lance McCullers works.
Go get Skubal. If not Skubal, Robbie Ray. If not Ray, then Sonny Gray if he becomes available. Just go out and get reinforcements.
“From the outside looking in, or if you take just a purely analytical look at baseball, you don’t understand the impact that it has in the clubhouse,” Epstein recently said on “The Lovable Reunion” podcast with Anthony Rizzo and David Ross. “These guys have done all their offseason work, grinded all of spring training, put the (guts) on the line the whole season. And then they look at the front office like, ‘You guys have one (expletive) job. Get us what we need.'”
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Let’s see if this is the year the Brewers put discipline aside for once and finally go all in.
San Diego Padres
One year, they’re trading away four prized prospects, including James Wood and CJ Abrams to acquire Washington Nationals outfielder Juan Soto.
The next, they’re dumping him.
One year, they’re trading away perhaps the finest prospect in baseball, shortstop Leo De Vries, for Athletics All-Star closer Mason Miller.
The next, they’re talking about trading him away.
The Padres, who recently sold for a stunning $3.9 billion, who sell out virtually every game they play, have looked like a discombobulated mess.
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They are 48-48 and have no idea whether they should buy, go all in, sell, or go all-out.
They’re desperate for a starter, and without one, or even two, and a bounce-back second half from Manny Machado, they’re going nowhere and might as well sell.
But with A.J. Preller, MLB’s most aggressive wheeler and dealer, it’s anyone’s guess.
Follow Bob Nightengale on X: @Bnightengale
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: MLB trade deadline watch: These five franchises could hold all the cards
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