In The Lab: A Look at Third Base Offense

We continue our series on bases per out and all of the positions in the American League at third base. Fortunately, we are beginning to see a picture as we have completed catcher, first base, and second base. We have noticed at all three positions have come in at the American League median or mean in bases per out at their position. The major league average for bases per out is .676, but that is only somewhat relevant when we are talking about individual positions.

The general idea is that if you have nine players that are league average at their position then you will have a league average offense. The Astros are slightly above average offensively over the course of the season, so that production must come from somewhere. Is it coming from third base?

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Outs are the blood currency of the sport. Every team gets 27 of them and the team that makes the most of those 27 outs wins the game. Bases per out is calculated by adding total bases, walks, stolen bases, and hit by pitches and dividing it by total outs. It is more accurate and descriptive than OPS because it includes the base running element and it counts batting average (or its components) only once. Even though the big league average is .676, that doesn’t mean it is the third base average.

Obviously, bases per out is a number I use to evaluate how effective a hitter is. The creators of the different WAR formulas use their own WAR, but Paredes is about as close as you can get to being an average player overall. He sits as the median of his position in the American League and likely comes close to that when we include the third basemen in the National League as well.

We haven’t looked at fielding numbers, but Paredes is very slightly below average at the position. When you put the two together you get an average player. So, when we start talking value, Paredes is a great illustration in the value of an average baseball player. For the general fan, an average player may not have a ton of value, but that would be a grave mistake. We can see that Paredes is likely on pace to come in around three wins according to the various formulas.

Of course, a part of this whole equation is lineup construction. Where the team hits Yordan Alvarez is a huge strategic decision, but the bigger decisions involve where to hit their second and third best hitters. So far, that looks like Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes. At the moment, they are both hitting behind Alvarez. They have flip flopped as each one has gone through ebbs and flows in their production. Where the team hits those three and Jeremy Pena won’t likely main a ton of difference but could mean a win or two on either end of the ledger.

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To get a handle on Paredes total value we would need to look at the third basemen in the National League. Obviously, the National League is the better league this year, but that doesn’t mean that their third basemen in their league is better. When we have a little more time we can take a look at the whole universe, but for now we are looking at the American League because we want to see how the Astros are doing against their direct competition.

The key for Paredes is being third in the group in combined walks and hit by pitches. He doesn’t have the speed of Ramirez or the power of a Caminero, but he probably has my favorite hitting profile on the Astros. He takes pitches and knows the strike zone. He leads the league in pitches per plate appearance. These are all little things that add to value. However, we look at this to get an accurate account of where he stands in the league.