The annual PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus are out, and they see the Mets coasting into the playoffs.
Here’s the gist on the projections, via BP:
Please remember that PECOTA and our simulations do not “pick” a team to “win” any particular number of games. Rather, they identify an estimated range of games a team might win and tells you the average of that fairly wide range. That is the point of the visualizations. Any one of those outcomes is possible. However, some of them, as you can see, are more likely than others.
Now, the numbers…
The Mets are projected to finish in second place in the NL East, with an aggregate simulated record of 88.9-73.1.
The above record would land the Mets the top Wild Card spot in the National League, ahead of the Phillies (second Wild Card spot) and Diamondbacks (third Wild Card spot).
PECOTA’s projections have the National League division winners as the Braves (92.4-69.6 aggregate record), Cubs (90.6-71.4 in an NL Central where there are no other teams at .500 or better), and Dodgers (103.8-58.2).
Under the projections, the Mets would have the seventh-best record in baseball, behind only the Dodgers, Braves, Cubs, Yankees, Rangers, and Orioles.
The projections give the Mets a 77.5 percent chance of making the postseason. For comparison, the Phillies are given a 69.4 percent chance, while the Yankees (PECOTA’s top team in the American League) have a 78.2 percent chance.
As far as output, PECOTA projects that the Mets will score 777 runs and allow 704.
PECOTA’s projections do not factor in any more offseason additions.
The Mets are still linked to free agent first baseman Pete Alonso, and have been connected to a potential trade for Padres ace Dylan Cease.
PECOTA’s projections last season had the Mets nabbing the third Wild Card spot, which was the eventual outcome.
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