Jake Paul vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. predictions, odds, picks: Can Jake Paul beat a real boxer?

Saturday’s DAZN pay-per-view event in Anaheim, California, has a little bit of everything.

Gilberto “Zurdo” Ramirez defends his unified cruiserweight title against the “KO Doctor,” Yuniel Dorticos. Floyd Schofield steps up to face Tevin Farmer, while rising contenders and prospects take center stage.

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And above it all is Jake Paul’s hyped showdown with the former world champion, Julio César Chavez Jr.

With a 10-fight card that consists of some of the top boxers of the past, the present and the future, it should be an entertaining night of fights. Let’s dive in and break them all down.

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Cruiserweight: Jake Paul (-700) vs. Julio César Chávez Jr. (+475)

When Paul steps into the ring with Chávez Jr., he will face his first real former boxing world champion.

Yes, I know that Paul has a win over the 58-year-old Mike Tyson, who had to end a 20-year retirement to face Paul, but obviously we’re not counting that.

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Chávez Jr. is an active boxer with experience at the top level of the sport within the past decade. That alone should make it a real test for Paul, but the bookmakers don’t seem to agree. Paul is a lopsided favorite against the Mexican, whose surname is steeped in boxing history. Bizarrely, Paul is an even bigger favorite against Chávez than he was against Tyson.

Chávez held the WBC middleweight championship more than a decade ago in a title reign that included a win over the great Irishman, Andy Lee. The Mexican rallied in a final-round thriller against the legendary Sergio Martinez in a fight where he ultimately lost his belt. Following that, Chávez shared the ring with Saul “Canelo” Alvarez in 2017, and Daniel Jacobs in 2019, but fell well short both times, even infamously quitting against Jacobs.

If Paul vs. Chávez had been made anytime before 2020, it would have been considered a brutal mismatch. The question here really is, has the 39-year-old Chávez Jr. regressed enough to lose to a boxer who still displays novice tendencies?

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Two more key factors in play here are activity and size. Chavez Jr. has fought just once in more than three years, while Paul has registered seven fights in the same time period. After meeting Tyson at heavyweight, Paul will have to drop almost 30 pounds for this fight against Chavez, which takes place at the 200-pound cruiserweight limit, but Chavez’s best days were at 160 pounds.

Paul and Chávez share one common foe: Former UFC middleweight champ Anderson Silva. Paul defeated Silva by unanimous decision in 2022, while Chávez fell short to Silva the year prior. Silva, however, has since predicted that Chávez will prevail over Paul.

It is clear, to Silva at least, that the Chávez who fought him was unmotivated and, at the time, undedicated. But with Chávez now claiming to be 20 months alcohol-free and ready to make another run at the top level of the sport, should we expect a focused and disciplined version of the former champ?

If Chávez is anywhere near his peak years, he should win comfortably against Paul. Whether he can roll back time for one more performance at even 50% of his peak powers is really the decider here.

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Pick: Chávez Jr.

Cruiserweight: Gilberto “Zurdo” Ramirez (-1000) vs. Yuniel Dorticos (+650)

“Zurdo” Ramirez defends his WBA and WBO unified cruiserweight championship against the former two-time cruiserweight champion, Dorticos.

Ramirez won the WBA title in March 2024 with a wide unanimous decision win over Arsen Goulamirian, then unified with WBO champion Chris Billam-Smith this past November, beating him comfortably as well.

A former super middleweight world champion, Ramirez’s journey at cruiserweight has gone as well as he could’ve possibly hoped. Ramirez’s chin has carried through the weights. When you combine that with his fast hands, combination punching, close-range attacks and body shots, it’s clear he’s a real problem at cruiserweight.

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Dorticos was a firm player in the cruiserweight mix in the late 2010s, but he has done little since his majority decision loss to Mairis Briedis in 2020. Fighting just three times in five years, and now 39 years old, this fight certainly hasn’t come at an ideal time for Cuba’s Dorticos.

According to the old adage, the last thing to go is a fighter’s power. With 25 knockouts in 27 wins, the “KO Doctor” will be hoping that rings true on Saturday against Ramirez. But Ramirez’s punch resistance across multiple weight divisions has proven to be as sturdy as they come. I expect Ramirez to be too fresh and active for Dorticos, helping him become the second man to stop him.

Pick: Ramirez

Lightweight: Floyd Schofield (-192) vs. Tevin Farmer (+163)

Tevin Farmer is 0-3 in the past year, but the record doesn’t tell the full story. Not even close.

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Farmer, who held the IBF super featherweight title from 2018 to 2020, returned from obscurity this past July to face the now IBF lightweight champion Raymond Muratalla. Although Farmer fell narrowly short on that occasion, he reminded fans why he was still very much in the mix at 135 pounds. Off the back of the performance, Farmer landed a shot at the WBC interim lightweight title.

He was beaten again on the scorecards, but by putting Zepeda on the canvas and running him to a close split-decision, Farmer exposed Zepeda’s vulnerabilities in many people’s eyes. Zepeda and Farmer ran it back this past March, and despite Farmer suffering from injuries to his left arm and elbow, he delivered another strong showing, rallying in the final round.

Schofield was dominant through nine rounds against Rene Tellez Giron this past November, but unwisely chose to trade with Mexico’s Giron in the championship rounds. Schofield was wildly open to counters in exchanges, and ultimately, he had to rise off the floor to win a wide unanimous decision.

They say there’s a fine line between confidence and arrogance. Schofield was bossing the action against Giron with his boxing skills, but he wanted to prove that he could win any way he wanted. He almost paid the price for it. Schofield radiates as much confidence when he fights as he does when he talks. But overconfidence can lead to overlooking a fighter, and that could be the downfall for “Kid Austin” on Saturday.

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As Zepeda and Muratalla found out, Farmer, even at 34, is still a tricky operator with enough left in the tank to give top contenders an acid test. That test could be coming too early for the 22-year-old Schofield.

Pick: Farmer

Welterweight: Raul Curiel (-1400) vs. Victor Ezequiel Rodriguez (+850)

Raul Curiel, a 147-pound contender and 2016 Olympian for Mexico, fights for the first time since a majority decision draw in a Fight of the Year contender with Alexis Rocha this past December. Curiel battles the unheralded Uruguayan, Victor Ezequiel Rodriguez.

Rodriguez has visible power with his right hand — and he will certainly let it go enough times, as he showed in his third-round TKO win over Alberto Mosquera. Curiel is a more complete fighter, though, and will have a big target in front of him that seems easy to hit. Rodriguez should have little more than a puncher’s chance.

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Pick: Curiel

Welterweight: Avious Griffin (-1000) vs. Julian Rodriguez (+650)

Welterweight prospect Avious Griffin will make his debut for Most Valuable Promotions against the former Top Rank fighter Julian Rodriguez.

Rodriguez was upset by Jose Pedraza in 2021, after he was forced to retire on his stool at the conclusion of Round 8 due to an injury that made seeing out of his left eye impossible. Rodriguez has fought just twice since then, winning decisions against overmatched opponents.

Griffin has 16 knockouts in his 17 wins. Very much a work in progress, he has been developed gradually on the club show scene, even picking up his first regional title in February, stopping Jose Luis Sanchez in eight rounds.

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Rodriguez is a step up for Griffin, who is coached by the training team led by Brian “BoMac” McIntyre, but Griffin’s dynamite fists should see him through to the finish line. Rodriguez is certainly a live dog in this matchup, though.

Pick: Griffin

Undercard quick picks:

• Lightweight: Holly Holm (-750) def. Yolanda Guadalupe Vega Ochoa (+575)

• Welterweight: Joel Iriarte (-4000) def. Kevin Johnson (+1900)

• Bantamweight: Alexander Gueche def. Vincent Avina

• Heavyweight: Joshua Edwards def. Dominic Hardy

• Super featherweight: Victor Morales (-1400) def. Rene Alvarado (+900)

• Super flyweight: John Ramirez def. Saleto Henderson