Fantasy Football: Outside WR matchups we love for Week 5

If you’ve been playing fantasy football for any length of time, “fantasy points against” is a powerful stat that gives managers a quick shortcut look at matchups. It’s not perfect, but still, it’s a good tool that helps folks navigate tough start-sit decisions.

But one glaring deficiency is that standard FPA charts lump all wide receivers into a giant pool.

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Dallas, for example, has given up nine touchdowns to wide receivers this year. But when you separate its slot defenders from out-wide defenders, you find that all nine scores were allowed by its outside corners.

As a result, Dallas is giving up by far the most fantasy points to outside receivers but doing pretty well against receivers lined up in the slot, an important distinction when trying to make roster decisions.

With that, let’s take a look at which teams, other than the Cowboys, are giving up big-time production to the outside and how we can exploit that data for fantasy purposes.

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THE BEST MATCHUPS FOR OUTSIDE RECEIVERS

Xavier Worthy vs. JAX

• There’s been a lot of talk of how improved the Jags defense is this year and while I agree they are certainly playing with more fire and passion, their schedule has been … light, to say the least. Carolina, Cincy (Burrow got hurt mid-game), Houston and a decimated Niners team are the four teams Jacksonville has seen thus far.

• Despite the favorable matchups, they’ve still been getting blasted on the outside. Nico Collins and Ja’Marr Chase put up 20+ PPR points while Tee Higgins chipped in with 14.6 while playing with Jake Browning. Rookie Tetairoa McMillan, playing in his first NFL game, posted a usable 11.8 fantasy points.

• The Jags are dead last in receptions and third to last in yards allowed to receivers on the outside, making Xavier Worthy a must-start this week.

• Hollywood Brown, who had been playing more inside snaps to start the season, kicked outside in WK4. In a revenge game versus Baltimore, Hollywood played a chunky 76% of his snaps lined up out wide, making him an intriguing deep-ish sleeper this week.

Darius Slayton vs. NO

• Much to the chagrin of my longtime podcast partner Matt Harmon, I’ve long been a fan of Slayton’s game, describing him as a rock-solid pro. He doesn’t hurt you anywhere yet also brings a vertical element to the passing game. He’s not a world beater but look around the NFL right now; there is a complete dearth of solid outside receivers and, in that way, I’ve been seemingly shouting into the void, arguing that Slayton is actually an underrated player.

• With Malik Nabers lost for the season, Slayton has unfortunately been thrust into the fantasy limelight and this week, he takes on a Saints team that has given up the third-most fantasy points to receivers lined up out wide.

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught a TD to go along with 96 yards, Jauan Jennings had 89 yards and a score while Marvin Harrison Jr. had one of his best games, racking up 71 yards and also scoring a touchdown.

• NO has allowed a gaudy 73.7% completion rate to the outside (second-worst) and it’s been giving up chunk yardage as well. The 12.4 yards/target allowed to the outside is also second-worst.

• The Giants’ passing game left a lot to be desired last week (just 111 yards passing) but it was Jaxson Dart’s first start and the Chargers are no joke defensively. Let’s see if Brian Daboll opens it up a bit for his rookie, and if Slayton is a beneficiary.

Stefon Diggs vs. BUF

• While Buffalo is not on the list above based on total fantasy points allowed, the Bills have given up five touchdowns to outside receivers, tied for the second most in the NFL.

• Diggs has been ramping up his snaps and production, breaking the century mark for the first time last week (101 yards vs CAR). But of note, despite seeing 22 targets and hauling in 19 receptions, exactly zero of those catches have gone for a touchdown.

• I know this is not analytical at all, but my man might be due for a score going up against a team that has given up a touchdown to an outside receiver in three of their first four games played.

• This could be lining up to be the revengiest of revenge games for Diggs.

Rashid Shaheed vs. NYG

• The Giants have given up the second-most receptions and the fifth-most yards to outside receivers this year, making Chris Olave a strong play this week, but don’t forget about Shaheed as well.

• While Shaheed does have inside-outside versatility, he has played 55% of his snaps outside, with 74% of his yardage coming while he was lined up outside.

• The Giants have given up a touchdown to an outside receiver in three straight weeks.

Tre Tucker vs. IND

• File this under deep sleepers but after going banana-pants in Week 3, Tucker predictably crashed back to earth in Week 4, going from 40+ PPR points to just 4.2 points last week.

• But this week, Tucker may very well get back on track taking on a Colts team that has given up the seventh most fantasy points to outside receivers.

• The 71.4% completion rate allowed ranks as fourth-worst and hints at easy completions. And at the same time, the Colts have also been banged on deep passes. They’ve allowed the third-most yards on deep passes this year, while the 25.3 yards per deep pass attempt ranks as second-worst in the league. This seems to pair well with Tucker’s speedy skill set.

Elic Ayomanor vs. ARI

• While the Cardinals aren’t bottom 10 in terms of fantasy points allowed to outside receivers, make no mistake, they have given up production.

• Arizona has had difficulty staying healthy at outside corner and as a result, it is bottom 10 in both receptions and yards allowed to the outside.

• It’s allowed No. 1 outside receivers to score at least 12 ppr points every single week, but what it has not allowed is a touchdown … yet. I think that changes this week.

• Ayomanor has quietly emerged as the Titans’ primary pass catcher as Calvin Ridley has shrunken into his shell. The rookie from Stanford actually led the team in routes run, targets and yards last week. It was the first time all season that Ayomanor surpassed Ridley in any of those benchmarks, let alone all three.

• It’s fair to wonder if this is a semi-permanent change moving forward, as Tennessee had a new play caller in quarterbacks coach Bo Hardegree and Ridley has shown pretty much no zip or fight all season.