49ers vs. Rams odds, predictions: Best bets, player-prop wagers for Thursday Night Football

Just like last week, Thursday Night Football features a divisional clash between two one-loss NFC West teams.

The 3-1 San Francisco 49ers travel to Los Angeles to play the 3-1 Rams. I think this result will likely mirror what we have seen through four weeks of Thursday night games, with favorites going 4-0 straight up. The Rams are currently a 7-point favorite with a total sitting at 46.5.

So, how do we bet this game?

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-7, 46.5)

When Week 4 ended and the lines re-opened for Week 5, this game was priced with the Rams being a cheap -3.5 (-105). Since then it has climbed a full 3.5 points and currently sits at -7 at BetMGM.

The reason for the move is the piling up injuries for the 49ers. Football can sometimes be a game of attrition, where availability is the best ability, and right now San Francisco is reeling. We already know stars Nick Bosa and George Kittle remain on IR and are out for this game. But on Sunday, the 49ers also lost WR Ricky Pearsall to a knee injury and WR Jauan Jennings to a rib injury. We now have cluster injuries to San Francisco’s receiving corps; and don’t forget WR Brandon Aiyuk hasn’t yet played this season. With QB Brock Purdy and his core of weapons banged up, it is hard to imagine the 49ers offense being able to keep pace with the Rams, and thus a 3.5-point move against the spread is certainly warranted.

Los Angeles came into the season with serious questions surrounding QB Matthew Stafford’s back, but those concerns have been quelled. Stafford has the second-most passing yards and the third-most passing touchdowns in the league through four weeks. His weapons Puka Nakua and Davante Adams are off to blistering starts to their seasons as well, showing strong chemistry with Stafford despite the limited offseason and preseason reps.

Right now I would only consider betting the Rams side, but I would recommend waiting until kickoff. The questionable tags for Purdy, Jennings and Pearsall on a short week provide this line with asymmetric risk.

If they are active, the line will move back to San Francisco a bit, offering a better price on the Rams later in the betting cycle. If one of the WRs is inactive, this likely moves to -7. Given the value of the 6 and 7 in NFL betting, and the large line move already, I would wait and try and hold out the chance to get -6 or better for the Rams before kickoff.

Bet: Nothing now, Rams -6 or better if it appears again (or Rams at kickoff)

Total: Over/Under 46.5

This total has been surprisingly stagnant the entire time the market has existed. Going back all the way to May when the scheduled were released and sportsbooks started to price out prime time games, the total was set at 47.5. When it reopened on Sunday night after the games, the line stayed but the vigorish changed, moving to Under 47.5 (-115). Now it has ticked a point lower to 46.5.

If we evaluate the team totals market, this total has remained pretty neutral because of an adjustment up for the Rams and down for the 49ers. The spread move has been reflected evenly on both sides of the line. Right now, looking to back the Rams over 27.5 (+105) is a tough number to get to on a short week against a divisional opponent. Looking to back the under comes with a pretty hefty juice at -135, where bettors are buying a 57.5% hit rate needed to be profitable.

Similarly to the spread, the actionable angles for this total is slim pickings right now. The best way to attack this game is in the prop market.

Player props to target

Kyren Williams Over 67.5 rushing yards (-115)

Williams continues to get the volume of a workhorse back. He is playing about 75% of the Rams’ snaps, ranks seventh in the NFL in both rushing yards and rushing attempts and is averaging an efficient 4.5 yards per carry in the process. The 49ers have a below-average run defense, allowing an average of 115.5 opponent rushing yards per game (17th in the NFL). This includes surrendering 151 rushing yards to the Jaguars in the first game without Nick Bosa. Jacksonville is passing frequently in typical run situations, and still gashed the 49ers on the ground.

On a short week home game against a division rival, and factoring in the -Rams as a touchdown favorite, I expect Williams to continue getting a volume of rushing yards with big-play ability. If the Rams hold the lead late, he should be featured heavily to help kill the clock. Play this for half a unit.

Demarcus Robinson Anytime TD: +500

The 49ers receiving injuries are the most notable cluster injury group heading into this game. However, right now both Pearsall and Jennings do have odds up in the anytime touchdown market. If either of them miss the game, or play but are clearly hampered, the outlier will be by attacking a different 49ers WR.

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Robinson returned to San Francisco’s lineup last week after being suspended for three games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, but now he is cleared, has had a week to integrate, and watched two of fellow wideouts get injured. In a game where the 49ers are likely to be playing catch up, Robinson having outsized importance is a very possible outcome. Take his anytime TD +500 now before the news clears up for who can go for the 49ers and how limited they might be. I would play a quarter unit on this long shot prop.

Eddy Pineiro Over 1.5 FG Made (-105)

Here, I am correlating some of the spread and total movement into an actionable prop.

With the downgrade to the 49ers and the upgrade to the Rams, the total has remained fairly steady at 46.5 points. The Rams team total hangs around 27 points while the 49ers is at 20. Factor in the divisional game component, every possession can be meaningful and settling for the points without key playmakers active would be a smart coaching decision by Kyle Shanahan.

Pineiro has played three games for the 49ers and he is a perfect 7-for-7 kicking FGs, including a long of 51 yards. He is reliable and accurate, and has shown some range. Taking Pineiro to make over 1.5 field goals at only -105 vig is actionable for half a unit.

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