Every Thursday during the college football season, I’ll release my favorite spots to bet for the upcoming week.
A great example of a “spot” play is Vanderbilt’s upset over Alabama last season. The Commodores were returning home after two straight road losses, while Alabama was coming off an emotional win over No. 2 Georgia. Vanderbilt won the game outright as a 23-point underdog. We will see more opportunities like this once the season gets going based on travel, results, and injuries.
Just for clarification, I’ll always mention if I bet the game personally. Sometimes, I will like the spot for a certain team, but my numbers may not see enough value to make it an official play. For Week 2, I identify three teams in good spots to open the season.
Oregon Ducks -16.5 (first half) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
One team I’m looking to fade early in the season is Oklahoma State. It feels like this is a program falling behind in the new NIL era of college football.
Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy took a shot at Oregon for spending so much money on players this week. It’s funny because Gundy wasn’t complaining when billionaire T Boone Pickens donated $265 million to the Oklahoma State football program to help improve facilities and draw recruits to Stillwater. Dan Lanning is the type of coach who will use those comments as motivation.
On the field, Oklahoma State lost starting quarterback Hauss Hejny to an injury last week against Tennessee-Martin. Zane Flores replaced him, and he will get his first college start this Saturday at Oregon. Good luck, Zane.
Lanning’s teams typically jump out fast versus overmatched opponents, and I expect that to be the case here. With Penn State coming up on Sept. 27, Lanning can’t be conservative with young quarterback Dante Moore. I played Oregon -16.5 on the first half line and would bet it up to -17.5. This game could get really ugly.
Kansas State Wildcats (-17.5) vs. Army Black Knights
This is a great spot to back Kansas State. After losing a close game to Iowa State in Ireland, the Wildcats were a no-show mentally last week against North Dakota and were lucky to escape with the win.
A lot of times, teams suffer a hangover after playing in Ireland. The game versus Iowa State was a conference game that came down to a couple of plays. The Wildcats came out flat last Saturday after the long trip versus an overmatched FCS opponent and almost got upset.
Chris Klieman said this week the Wildcats were preparing for Army’s option offense over the summer to prepare for the early-season matchup. That tells me heading into the season Kansas State had its eye on two early opponents: Iowa State and Army. The Wildcats didn’t really care all that much about preparing for an FCS opponent in Week 1.
I expected Army to take a step back this season, and they were upset in Week 1 by FCS Tarleton State. The thing about the option offense is you need the right guy at quarterback to run it. Army had that last season with AAC Offensive Player of the Year Bryson Daily. I’m not sure yet if new starter Dewayne Coleman is the right guy, and he was hurt late in last week’s game. If Coleman can’t go on Saturday, it will likely be junior Cale Hellums at quarterback for Army.
This version of the Army option attack isn’t nearly as potent and we saw that in Week 1 when Tarleton State held the Black Knights to 5.0 yards per play. I took Kansas State at -16.5 earlier in the week and would play the Wildcats up to 18.5. I’m betting the Wildcats get back on track with a big win at home. some late-night action on Saturday.
Navy Midshipmen -21 vs. UAB Blazers
UAB’s defense is in shambles right now. In last week’s win over FCS Alabama State, the Blazers allowed 42 points, over 200 yards rushing, and 7.9 yards per play. The Hornets went 13-for-15 on third downs and quarterback Andrew Body accounted for 431 total yards and five touchdowns.
Things should go from bad to worse for the Blazers on Saturday when they face Blake Horvath and Navy. If Alabama State rushed for 200 yards, Navy is good for 300+ walking off the bus. In last year’s 41-18 win, Navy averaged 8.5 yards per play and UAB’s defense looks to be even worse this season.
This number has gone from Navy -21.5 to -21 at some books. I disagree with the line movement. I took the over 59.5 here because I think the Midshipmen score 40+, but I also like laying the 21 points if you can get it. I don’t know the name of the Navy punter, and that probably won’t change on Saturday.
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