We introduced the standalone angle of top college football situational plays last year and had some success with it. In fact, our top-rated such plays went 10-5 against the spread (67%), providing a consistently winning angle for SportsLine members.
By top situational plays, we’re referring to instances in which a college football program appears due for a psychological letdown following a monumental victory, or one that should perform with maximum focus and motivation because of circumstances that suggest the game is essentially a must-win.
Such circumstances are easier to identify as the season wears on, but we have zeroed in a couple of Week 2 matchups that meet the aforementioned criteria, with one in each category. Here are our top Week 2 college football situational plays.
Virginia Tech -1 vs. Vanderbilt
The Commodores started their breakout 2024 season with a 34-27 overtime home win over Viriginia Tech as two-touchdown underdogs. The Hokies overcame a 17-point deficit but Vanderbilt, led by efficient and resilient QB Diego Pavia, made the clutch plays in overtime. Vandy would go on to a 6-win regular season that included a home upset of then-No. 1 Alabama before winning the Birmingham Bowl against Georgia Tech. The Hokies went on to an uneven 6-6 season that ended in a 24-10 loss to Minnesota in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.
Pavia leads an experienced returning core for Vanderbilt, while dual-threat QB Kyrone Drones brings explosive playmaking to a Virginia Tech team that should have an improved defense. This much was evident in its 24-11 Week 1 loss to a rugged South Carolina team that could be headed to the College Football Playoff. With the exception of an opening touchdown drive and late TD pass, the Hokies held the Gamecocks at bay, containing them to 334 total yards, forcing five punts and winning the time of possession battle by nearly 10 minutes. Ultimately, losing the turnover battle 2-0 and allowing two big fourth-quarter plays made the difference.
We saw enough positives to back a Virginia Tech team that, simply put, has to have this one. It’s a defining moment for both Drones and coach Brent Pry. Drones had to leave the Vanderbilt game last year because of exhaustion and backup Collin Schlee couldn’t lead a scoring drive in overtime. Pry hasn’t met expectations with the Hokies, with a 16-22 record thus far while never finishing higher than fourth in the ACC. Another loss Saturday and Pry is sure to climb the odds board for first FBS coach to be fired. In his defense, he has gone 3-0 home openers and this does look like the most talented team he has overseen at Virginia Tech.
Although this is a swing game for Vandy’s bowl chances, we expect a little regression from the Commodores this season and a rebuilt offensive line is believed to be their core weakness. The Hokies should have an edge at the line of scrimmage and while some of the daunting aura of playing at Lane Stadium has dissipated amid the recent program mediocrity, it is still a difficult road environment. This might be the last time the Virginia Tech faithful give Pry their full support, and we expect a loud and challenging setting for the Commodores.
The Hokies opened at -3, a number that quickly dropped to -1 or 1.5 at most outlets. This shows early bettors don’t share our optimism on the Hokies and, while we share this skepticism long-term, we believe there’s situational value in Week 2 on Virginia Tech at a near pick’em spread.
Florida (-17) vs. USF
This one falls into the letdown principle category. South Florida arguably had one of the biggest program statement victories in Week 1 (Florida State beating Alabama is another but we’re not using either program in this piece) with its 34-7 upset of Boise State, setting up this play-against spot. We gave out a top-rated play on South Florida +6.5 against Boise State and posted a half-unit money play on South Florida +210 on SportsLine because we felt Boise State was the most beatable opponent amid a rugged three-game stretch to start the season for the Bulls, who needed to win one of them to provide a spark heading into American Conference play. Back-to-back visits to Florida and Miami could sap some of that momentum.
No. 13 Florida is expected to be much improved and a potential contender for the SEC title. This game could serve as a showcase for QB DJ Lagway, a Heisman candidate who used a 55-0 win over Rhode Island in Week 1 as a glorified scrimmage of sorts as he works through various nagging injuries. Lagway went 15-of-18 for 120 yards and three scores in one half of play. Although this is a lot of points to lay against a talented and resilient USF club, we feel the Gators will wear down the Bulls in the second half and pull away for a 20-plus point victory.
Josh Nagel is the assistant managing editor of SportsLine and one of its top college football analysts. We will track the record of the 2025 top CFB situational plays in this space.
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