World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming betting favorite to win his first PGA Tour event of the year at this week’s CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
But where does the value lie?
Here’s a look at some wager ideas from NBCSports.com betting expert Brad Thomas:
TV times and more for this week’s PGA Tour event, the CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Jake Knapp, to win: +5500
Coming off an excellent third-place finish at the Zurich Classic, Jake Knapp at +5500 becomes an interesting option for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson this week. Even though the Zurich Classic is a team event, I will not discount his team’s fantastic finish. In an event like that, your team has to produce birdies in bunches to contend. Should a player want to compete at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, there will be a similar ask.
It’s time for Knapp to parlay that form and confidence into this week and earn his second PGA Tour win. It’s become evident that Knapp will excel at specific types of courses early in his PGA Tour career. Courses with a little extra length that demand a great second shot, ideally from the 200-plus-yard range, and courses that are not overly penal for missing the fairway.
Knapp has performed well at a few of the course comps that I’ve used for TPC Craig Ranch. Last year, he won the Mexico Open (Vidanta), finished in the top 30 at the WM Phoenix Open (TPC Scottsdale) and finished in the top 10 at this course.
Stephan Jaeger, top 30: +110
Stephan Jaeger has some of the best course history without winning the event. In the three years he’s played at this course, he’s finished T-38, T-11 and T-20, gaining over 20 strokes total.
While Jaeger has been on a bit of a poor run of form, he has excelled at the courses I’ve used in my comp courses model. He finished T-6 at the Mexico Open (this year at VidantaWorld), T-3 at the Sony Open (this year at Waialae), T-23 at the Sanderson Farms (last year at CC of Jackson) and won the Houston Open (last year at Memorial Park).
While Memorial Park is the loosest comp, his success in Texas cannot go unnoticed.
With TPC Craig Ranch being a strong second-shot course, it’s important to note that Jaeger has gained strokes on approach in his last five starts. In two of those starts, he’s gained over five strokes.
He could be live to win, so I love the +110 price on him to finish inside the top 30.
CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds (as of Wednesday morning, courtesy DraftKings):
- Scottie Scheffler: +280
- Jordan Spieth: +1800
- Sungjae Im: +2200
- Ben An: +2500
- Taylor Pendrith: +3000
- Si Woo Kim: +3000
- Sam Burns: +3000
- Ben Griffin: +3500
- Stephan Jaeger: +4000
- Rasmus Hojgaard: +4500
- Mackenzie Hughes: +4500
- Will Zalatoris: +4500
- Jacob Bridgeman: +5000
- Tom Kim: +5500
- Taylor Moore: +5500
- Jake Knapp: +5500
Read the full article here
