In case you haven't heard by now, Pittsburgh Penguins' top wingers Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust are two of the hottest topics of discussion in NHL trade rumors this summer.
And that's all because of the impressive campaigns they put together last season.
For both wingers – each on the wrong side of 30, with Rakell, 32, one year Rust's junior – the 2024-25 season marked a career-best one. Rakell finished the season second only to captain Sidney Crosby in team scoring with 35 goals and 70 points, while Rust was just a tick behind him with 31 goals and 65 points. Both players are capable of putting the puck in the net, and they have each shown immense chemistry with Crosby.
Regardless of the uniform each will be wearing once the puck drops on the season – and, given that training camp is one month out, it's becoming more and more likely that both might still be donning Penguins' sweaters – it's fair to wonder whether or not each player is capable of replicating last season's production. While each would clearly be an asset to the Penguins if they don't wish to tank this season, they could prove just as valuable – if not more valuable – to a contending team if they can sustain the level of play they put together in 2024-25.
So, how realistic is that for each player?
Rust has been consistent… but he's also aging
If one thing rings true about Rust – aside from, arguably, being one of the most underrated and least talked about players in hockey – he, like Crosby, has set a standard of consistency in Pittsburgh for a while.
Rust wasn't always a top-six winger. In fact, Rust began the first several seasons of his NHL career as a bottom-six player who killed penalties and did a lot of the "thankless jobs," as former Penguins' head coach Mike Sullivan would so often put it.
But he has sure blossomed into a top-of-the-lineup player. Even if Rust can be streaky at times in the midst of any given season, he has still managed to produce six consecutive seasons of 20 or more goals and at least 42 points. And those lower point totals have mostly coincided with injury-riddled seasons in which he missed chunks of time. Otherwise, he has sat right around or a tick below point-per-game.
But that's part of the catch: Rust's injury history is quite a bit concerning, as – aside from 2022-23, when he played in 8`1 games – he has not appeared in more than 72 games in a season. Some of those seasons were shortened due to the Covid-19 lockdown and fallout from 2020-22, but he still missed a few games in those seasons as well.
In addition, Rust is no longer a spring chicken. He's 33 years old, and the type of hardline, hybrid power forward game he likes to play hasn't exactly proven sustainable with age in the past. The reality is that Rust's production could fall off a cliff at any given moment, and he has three years left on his deal that pays him $5.1 million annually.
There are some factors like those to consider here – as well as whether or not Rust can sustain this level of play away from Crosby – but it's probably still a safer-than-not gamble to assume that he should be able to put together at least a few more solid campaigns, Crosby or not.
Rakell's goal-scoring ability is serious… but so is his history
Here's something to consider about Rakell: Realistically, he should never be separated from Crosby while playing for the Penguins. He and the Penguins' legend are magical together, and Rakell potted 35 last year despite not even being deployed on Crosby's line in the latter part of the season.
In fact, that's how it's been for him since he arrived in Pittsburgh at the 2022 trade deadline. When he plays with Crosby, he can score goals. When he's away from Crosby, he can still score goals, but not quite with the frequency that 87's elite playmaking ability sets him up for.
But folks can go back even further than Rakell's Pittsburgh days to see that same pattern.
His best seasons with the Anaheim Ducks from 2016-18 were largely spent alongside another elite playmaking center in Ryan Getzlaf. And then – post-Getzlaf – his production dipped a bit for a few seasons, as some injury and nutrition issues weren't doing him any favors.
But he was also void of a playmaking center who could set him up to finish, and he didn't really have that again until he was dealt to Pittsburgh. This isn't to suggest that Rakell isn't capable of creating on his own, as he definitely is. But he's capable of elite goal-scoring ability if he's paired with the right centerman.
Therefore, a repeat of last season – or even a near-repeat – largely depends on who Rakell is deployed with alongside with in the lineup. If it's another season alongside Crosby, there's no discernible evidence that Rakell will just forget how to score. And he would more than likely need to be flanking a playmaking center wherever he lands.
There may be a slight hint of co-dependence from Rakell, but he's still a very capable goal-scorer. Banking on his 2024-25 production again, though, might be a bit of a stretch.
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