As we get closer to the trade deadline, teams across baseball will have to decide which lane they’re going to take: buyer or seller. As of Thursday, there are more than a dozen teams within six games of a wild-card spot, not including the six teams currently in playoff position in each league.
With so many teams bunched in the middle of the standings with very little separation, the question becomes: How do we determine which teams should buy and be aggressive and which ones need to turn their focus to 2027 and beyond?
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Below are five interesting teams in the middle of the pack. Let’s break down what they should do as the trade deadline approaches.
When president of baseball operations Paul Toboni took over in October, the Nats were an organization in need of a new identity. Six years without a postseason appearance called for change, and in Toboni’s first year in D.C., there has been plenty of that for the Nationals.
So far in 2026, the Nationals have looked like a different team at the big-league level. One of the biggest surprises of the season has been Washington’s prolific offense. Led by budding star James Wood and shortstop CJ Abrams, who is having the best season of his career, the Nats have scored more runs than any other team in baseball.
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The Nationals’ jump in run production is one of the main reasons they’re in the middle of the NL wild-card race. But should they make a move to add at the trade deadline?
Despite their strong first half, the reality is that Washington is still in Year 1 of the rebuild under the Toboni regime. And moving future assets needed to build a sustainable winner in order to chase an outside shot at the third wild card doesn’t make much sense. Also, the Nats currently play in the toughest division in baseball, with the Braves, Phillies and Marlins ahead of them in the NL East.
The Nationals have played well, especially compared to where the industry thought they’d be in 2026. But you can’t pivot from the long-term plan this early. If teams call about veteran players, Toboni should pick up the phone.
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Deadline decision: Sell
Coming off a magical run to the World Series, in which they were two outs away from winning Game 7 against the Dodgers, the Blue Jays have not looked like the same team in 2026. Due to injuries, underperformance or both, Toronto just hasn’t played with the same spark as last year. And while it’s easy to point to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s first-half swoon as a catalyst for the Jays’ struggles, a team that’s ranked 24th in runs scored has more than one player to blame.
So why does Toronto still have a chance in the second half? First, the struggling American League means almost every team is still in the race. Second, the team’s dip in production has to revert to the mean at some point. Guerrero is too good of a player not to have a big second half, and the Jays still have a collection of talent that many teams envy.
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This team learned what it takes to get to the World Series last season, and with some better health in the second half, we should see a much improved version of the Blue Jays. With Toronto still in its window to contend and within shouting distance of the third AL wild card, expect the Jays to put themselves in position to make another postseason appearance.
Deadline decision: Buy
It has been quite some time since the Marlins were in position to potentially add at the trade deadline, but their play in the first half has changed that. The Fish have been red hot, going 20-5 over the past month and logging the best record in baseball in June. With the deadline just over a month away and his team riding a lot of momentum, president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has an opportunity to make a push for the postseason.
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Now, the Marlins are not a team that is going to add significant money to its payroll or make a big swing to acquire a pending free agent, but they should look to add players with remaining club control that fits their competitive window. It also wouldn’t be shocking to see the Marlins attempt to buy and sell, trading from an area of strength to add young pieces for the future. The Tampa Bay Rays did a similar dance last trade deadline, when they traded away several big leaguers but also acquired reliever Griffin Jax.
Miami is right in the middle of the NL wild-card race, and after playing in games that mattered late in the 2025 season, they have a real chance to be contending for a postseason berth down the stretch. For a team that has reached the playoffs only four times in franchise history, that seems worth going for it.
Deadline decision: Buy (and sell)
Things are a little different for the Cardinals this season, as they’ve seen a real change in both their play and their culture thanks to an emerging youth movement. Similar to the Nationals, this is Year 1 of the Cardinals’ rebuild under new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom. But St. Louis hasn’t played like a rebuilding team.
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Not only have the Cardinals as a whole played better in 2026, but they’ve also seen significant development from the likes of first baseman Alec Burleson and outfielder Jordan Walker, who will likely be an All-Star for the first time this year. That’s not to mention the impact of rookie second baseman JJ Wetherholdt, who has become the team’s every-day leadoff hitter and is a Rookie of the Year candidate.
Unlike Toboni in D.C., Bloom had a year to learn the Cardinals organization while sitting behind John Mozeliak last season. That likely gives him a better understanding of where the organization is in its rebuild. St. Louis has played its way into the NL wild-card conversation, but it’s still very early in the team’s timeline. And after trading most of the moveable veterans this past offseason, there aren’t many pieces left to move at the deadline.
Playing competitive and meaningful baseball is good for a young roster, and there’s no doubt St. Louis will continue improving this season, but it’s too early to buy, and there isn’t much here to sell.
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Deadline decision: Stand pat
Since the beginning of this season, all eyes have been on the Tigers, with the future of ace Tarik Skubal hanging in the balance. And after a disappointing first half on the field and Skubal missing a month due to injury, the direction Detroit needs to go feels clear.
Skubal, who will be a free agent at the end of the season, is this trade deadline’s biggest target. The Tigers have said they haven’t made a decision on his future, but there are several factors that shouldn’t be ignored.
When the trade deadline arrives, there will only be two months left on Skubal’s contract. So while any team in the American League, including the Tigers, can convince themselves they’re in the hunt for a wild card right now, Detroit has to think long-term. By not trading Skubal at the deadline, they’d risk getting nothing for the back-to-back AL Cy Young Award winner if he leaves in free agency. Worse, with the CBA expiring in December, there’s no guarantee that the qualifying offer will even exist to provide some compensation if he signs elsewhere.
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Detroit has played better of late, going 15-11 in the month of June. But the Tigers’ recent stretch feels like a mirage, and with the deadline swiftly approaching, time’s up. This team has the pitcher that every contender wants. Moving him is the play.
Deadline decision: Sell
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