Brandel Chamblee explains his theory on why Rory McIlroy will win just one more major

Rory McIlroy has been one of the best and most consistent players in world golf over the past 15 years.

It’s fair to say that McIlroy really should have more than five major championships to his name, given the talent he possesses.

However, the 36-year-old Northern Irishman is one of only six men in the history of the game to have completed the career Grand Slam.

Rory McIlroy will head to Augusta National next week to defend The Masters title he won 12 months ago.

Photo by Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images

McIlroy is one of the favorites to win The Masters this year, as he looks to add to his tally of major championship victories.

He will be looking at the next four or five years as a great opportunity to really cement his legacy in the game.

However, Brandel Chamblee has highlighted why McIlroy could struggle to add to his current major trophy haul.

Brandel Chamblee’s theory on why Rory McIlroy will win just one more major

McIlroy will still firmly believe that he has plenty more major wins lying ahead of him.

However, winning more than one major championship might not be a straightforward task for the 36-year-old.

When speaking on his Favorite Chamblee Podcast, the former PGA Tour player explained his thinking regarding what the future may hold for McIlroy.

“You can talk all you want about it,“ Chamblee said.

“Players, yes, they have won majors after the age of 36. They have, but they don’t win many of them.

“Jack won 14 of his majors by the time he was 36. That’s 78% of his majors. He only won four more after turning 36.

“There’s an age curve, and time moves on, and you get less opportunities as you age.

“At 36, you know, I’ve looked this up with various odds makers, you know. 36 to 45, he’s gonna play another 40 major championships.

“He’s won 7.5% of the major championships he has played.

“So if the percentages of his chances of winning decline at 36, 37, and 38 to 6.5, then they decline to 5%, then four, then three, then two, then one, and you run those odds, the percentages show that he’s likely to win just one more major in his career.

“Just one more That’s it.

“The window closes so fast and furious at 36 years of age. There is such a precipitous fall-off.

“Now look, I know Tom Brady had great success as he aged, and so did Roger Federer.

“And there are examples of players who’ve aged beautifully, like Phil, and like Vijay, and like Sam Snead, and Rory falls more into those categories.

“So maybe Rory will be the exception, and I hope he is. I hope he wins two, three, four, five more major championships. I hope we see more of that golf.“

As hard as it is to imagine McIlroy winning only one more major championship, Chamblee certainly has a point.

Six major champions over the age of 45

In the history of the game, only six major championships have been won by men aged 45 or over.

Phil Mickelson is the oldest man to ever win a major, after he reigned supreme at the PGA Championship in 2021 at the age of 50 years and 11 months.

Julius Boros won the PGA Championship in 1968 at the age of 48 and four months, while Old Tom Morris was 46 years and three months when he won The Open Championship way back in 1867.

Jack Nicklaus was one month younger than Old Tom when he won The Masters in 1986.

Hale Irwin was 45 when he won the U.S. Open in 1990 and Jerry Barber was the same age when he triumphed at the 1961 PGA Championship.

As fit as McIlroy undoubtedly is, he will be well aware that his chances of contending in majors, let alone winning them, will drastically decrease after the next 5-10 years.

If he is to get close to winning double-figure majors, he will need to start reeling them off quickly within the next few years.

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