The hype was already building for the first top-10 battle between Miami and Florida State in over a decade as the No. 8 Seminoles traveled to play Virginia on Friday night. All they had to do was get past a UVa team that hadn’t beaten a top-10 opponent at home in 30 years and the stage would be set.
Unbeaten Miami would be traveling to take on unbeaten Florida State next week in a rivalry showdown that would be the talk of college football. After all, the last time Miami and FSU met in a top-10 matchup, FSU used its win over the Hurricanes as a springboard on its way to the 2013 BCS national title.
But if anyone from the ACC is going to contend for the national championship this season, it will be Miami.
While Florida State’s stunning 46-38 loss to Virginia on Friday night didn’t completely disqualify the ‘Noles from College Football Playoff contention, it recalibrated expectations for a team that saw its stock soar following a Week 1 upset win over Alabama.
Florida State may be light-years better than it was last season, when it finished 2-10. But it proved against Virginia that it’s not as great as its stunning upset of the Crimson Tide suggested.
That’s bad news for the the ACC, which is down to one legitimate national-title contender before the end of September.
It’s also bad news for college football, which could have benefitted from the nostalgia provoked by a week of anticipation leading up to a top-10 showdown between Miami and Florida State. Next week’s game at FSU’s Doak Campbell Stadium will still be significant, but Florida State’s loss to Virginia reduces the buzz.
FSU can reclaim some momentum by beating Miami next week, but such an outcome would only further muddy the ACC’s aspirations of winning its first national championship since 2018.
An ACC defender could try to spin Virginia’s victory over the Seminoles as some form of evidence that the league is deep. But what conference with depth goes 1-7 in head-to-head matchups with the Big 12? That’s what the ACC did over the season’s first month.
In nonconference games against all Power Four programs and Notre Dame, the ACC is just 5-13. Miami accounts for two of those wins. Yet for all of its warts, it appeared the league had established a strong upper tier consisting of Miami, Florida State and Georgia Tech.
The three were each unbeaten entering Week 5 and had combined to go 4-0 against Power Four teams in nonconference play. To a lesser degree, the ACC looked like it was building a premier tier similar to what the Big Ten established last season with Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State.
But teams in a “premier” tier can’t be losing in September to programs like Virginia.
Miami sits at +1500 to win the national championship entering Saturday’s action, per FanDuel Sportsbook. Next from the ACC is Georgia Tech at +10000 (100-to-1), followed by Florida State, which is down to +12500 after Friday’s loss.
In defense of Florida State, the Seminoles were never expected to carry the banner for the ACC in 2025. That job was supposed to be up to Clemson and, to a lesser degree, Miami. For an FSU team coming off a historically bad 2024 season, a mere return to respectability was a more plausible goal than a return to the 13-win trajectory of the program’s 2023 squad.
But when FSU beat Alabama in Week 1 and Clemson lost to LSU, the outlook changed. Clemson’s subsequent struggles confirmed the Tigers wouldn’t be a part of the national-title picture this season
Florida State, though? The ‘Noles were back as you can get after taking down the Crimson Tide. Now, it’s clear they aren’t as back as we initially thought.
That’s a tough reality for the ACC to stomach.
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