2026 Cadillac Championship Picks
Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into tournament and player stats with the Rabbit Hole Tool from Betsperts Golf making his early 2026 Cadillac Championship Picks, highlighting stats that matter inside the model, and previewing the course.
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WATCH: Cadillac Championship 2026 Picks | Research, Sleepers & Course Breakdown
2026 Cadillac Championship Field
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First Tee Time: Thursday, April 30
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Defending Champion: Adam Scott
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I’m not necessarily opposed to seeing some of the top players skip some signature events. Seeing the exact same fields square off eight times a year really limited the impact of Majors and THE PLAYERS. But I know the whole point of these is to get the best players on the course together as much as possible, so seeing Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, Robert MacIntyre, and Ludvig Aberg take a bye week probably isn’t something the TOUR wanted. Well, maybe they’re happy Fitz is taking the week off to give someone else a chance.
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This is the PGA Tour’s fault, though. Some will make the case they aren’t playing because it’s at TRUMP DORAL, but those people are just making lazy arguments for clicks. The real reason is this abhorrent scheduling. Going Masters/Heritage (sig)/Zurich/Cadillac (sig)/Truist (sig)/PGA Championship simply means the very top end players don’t want to wear themselves out before a Major. Don’t expect to see Scottie Scheffler and a slew of others from the field this week at Quail Hollow in seven days time either.
2026 Cadillac Championship KEY STATS
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Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
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Stokes Gained: Long, Difficult Courses
Mayo’s Key Stat Rankings Powered by the Rabbit Hole at Betsperts Golf
2026 Cadillac Championship COURSE
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Trump National Doral (Blue Monster)
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Average Green Size: 7,200 sq. ft.
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Number of Sand Bunkers: 110
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Number of Holes Water is in Play: 10
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Par 3’s (4): Average Distance – 204 yards
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–> 1 under 200 yards (155), 3 over 200 yards
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In 2016, 14 of the top 16 finishers gained ground on the Par 3’s
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2016 Scott: Played #15 at -2 for the week, was +1 on the other Par 3’s
Par 4’s (10): Average Distance – 437 yards
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–> 1 under 400 yards (345), 9 over 400 yards (3 over 470)
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Driver usage sits at 60.2% for this course (PGA: 68.9%) because the accuracy shrinks (drive accuracy here is 52%, PGA: 60.5%)
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2016 Scott: 2 front-9 double bogeys on Sunday (both Par 4’s)
Par 5’s (4): Average Distance – 590 yards
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In 2016, the top-3 Par 5 scorers for the week finished 1-2-3 on the final leaderboard (Scott, Watson, and McIlroy)
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2016 Scott: Birdied all 4 on Sunday after settling for par on 3 of 4 Saturday
2026 Cadillac Championship PAST WINNERS
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2025: Marc Leishman -6 (LIV)
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2024: Dean Burmester -11 (LIV)
PAST WINNER NOTES
2016: Adam Scott (+1200, T-3rd favorite) beats Bubba Watson by 1 stroke
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Scott was the top approach golfer of the week, 7 of the top 9 finishers picked up over 3 strokes on approach for the week
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9 of the top 10 finishers gained Prox150-175 (Scott was 3rd best in this range for the week)
2015: Dustin Johnson (+2000, T-5th favorite) beats JB Holmes by 1 stroke
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Johnson was 5 behind Holmes entering Sunday (shoots a 69 to Holmes’ 75)
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The top 6 finishers all gained in distance with 3 of them losing fairways to the field
2014: Patrick Reed (+8000) beats Bubba Watson and Jamie Donaldson by 1 stroke
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14 of the top 15 finishers gained strokes putting (6 of the top 8 gained putting from 25+ feet)
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6 of the top 8 finishers lost Prox 200+
FIRST ROUND
(Tee times were very bunched in the past with late morning tee times, so there hasn’t been anything close to an even split golfer wise in terms of AM opportunities)
2016
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66 – Scott Piercy (AM) and Marcus Fraser (PM, last group)
2015
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–> 4 clear of Ryan Moore and 6 clear of anyone else
2014
2026 Cadillac Championship Notes
The Blue Monster at Doral is hosting a PGA event for the first time since 2016. Adam Scott held off Bubba Watson for the win that year. The top five on the leaderboard that season were all Masters champions too. Danny Willett would don his green jacket three weeks after this tournament while Rory would have to wait a while but has a pair in his collection now. In fact, the last four winners of this event are all Masters winners (Scott, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, and Tiger Woods), and 2012 champ at Doral, Justin Rose, may as well be an honorary Augusta champ with his resume.
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This wasn’t the last time Doral has been used in a competitive setup however. For each of the past four years, LIV played Doral. The first two years as the team championship event, and the last two as a regular tournament. Marc Leishman and Dean Burmester were the two individual LIV winners. And the scorecard this year is almost exactly the same as the LIV events.
In 2013, the Blue Monster was reshaped by famous golf architect Gil Hanse to make it even longer, with even more water and bunkers. The course is over 200 yards longer than the last time it was played on the PGA TOUR. There are deep bunkers everywhere, shaved off areas greenside that can funnel into sticky bermuda grass, super skinny fairways, and massive greens. It’s those massive greens which likely leads to so many players having crossover success between here and Augusta. Lag putting is an essential component to contention at both. Along with being, you know, one of the best players in the world. It’s shocking Rory, Xander, and especially Ludvig took this week off.
A total of 123 eagles had been recorded at the opening hole, but no eagles were recorded at No. 1 the first year after Gil Hanse’s redesign. A few were made in 2016, and while it remains the easiest hole to par on the course, its lengthening increased the scoring average substantially.
The rough isn’t penal, but the wrong bounce can get stuck behind a palm tree. The fairway bunkers on most holes aren’t necessarily a bad spot. Off the tee, plus distance means you can shorten a bunch of holes by going over the water leading to shorter wedge shots but it also brings in wet mishits which will blow up a scorecard. Think of it as a longer Bay Hill, with easier rough but far more difficult greenside bunkers.
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Hole 18 remains THEE difficult hole. It’s one of the most difficult in the world. Hole 16 should be set up to be drivable some of the rounds.
Expect some really bad scores from a few players. So much water can lead to a slew of crooked numbers. There were only four bogey free rounds during the 2016 event. If the wind picks up at all, you’ll likely be looking at single digit winner.
For reference, Steven Bowditch, who was a Presidents Cup International Team member the previous year, produced four rounds in the 80s (81-80-80-84). The last time a player shot four rounds in the 80s on the PGA TOUR was Mike Dunaway at the 1983 Panasonic Las Vegas Pro-Celebrity Classic. But, that was a 90-hole event and Dunaway did not play in the fifth and final round. At the 1962 Doral Open, two players, Robert Ornitz and Leo Fenster, both shot all four rounds in the 80s.
Long, difficult courses are the comps if you’re looking. Which should result in a Major level winner this week. Here are the best players, per round between Augusta, Torrey Pines (South), Riviera, Quail Hollow, and Bay Hill over the past three years.
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2026 Cadillac Championship Picks
Hideki Matsuyama — Hideki’s number has drifted enough where gambling on his driver being any good is worth it. His approach play remains elite, he’s still one of the best in the world around the greens (especially off tight surfaces), and his putter has been remarkably good in 2026. As a bonus, he’s third in the field in approach inside 15-feet from 200+ yards, an approach bucket which is over indexed this week. Just pray he stays dry off the tee.
Chris Gotterup — He was pretty lousy at Heritage until he went scorched earth in the final round. Always good when the last time on the course was a massive positive after some terrible play. He’s plenty long, good enough with his irons, and is generally quite good from greenside. Plus, he’s one of, if not, THEE best wind player on TOUR right now. While incredibly difficult, Doral can be lit up with a good round which can mask a lot of mistakes from mediocre days. Something which Gotterup has done a lot in 2026. He’s one of five players to gain 5+ strokes on the field in over 10% of his rounds…
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