2025 SEC football schedule breakdown: Predicting the first loss for all 16 conference teams

No conference compares to the SEC when it comes to strength of schedule, according to commissioner Greg Sankey, who has said multiple times this summer he expects his league to be well-represented in the College Football Playoff this season. The likelihood of the SEC producing an unbeaten conference champion is slim given the wealth of talent throughout as the conference looks to unseat the Big Ten and reclaim its throne at the top of the sport.

Going through the schedules for all 16 SEC teams, we’ve projected where the first loss may come for each. 

These predictions coincide with our preseason bowl projections ahead of the 2025 campaign and how we see the campaign shaking out.

First loss: at Georgia, Sept. 27

Kalen DeBoer’s team will be battle-tested with wins over Florida State and Wisconsin in the nonconference before opening SEC play at Georgia in Week 5. That’s an early big-boy game in the conference with considerable playoff implications in the quality wins department for the victor. The Crimson Tide leaped out to a huge lead during last season’s classic before the Bulldogs fought back in the second half. This time around, we’re not going to see as many total points in a one-possession affair.

First loss: at Ole Miss, Sept. 13

The last thing Arkansas coach Sam Pittman needs is a frustrating performance in the Razorbacks’ trip to Ole Miss in Week 3 given what happened during last season’s face-plant against the Rebels — an embarrassing 63-31 loss. Arkansas should perform better this time around, but the good news for Ole Miss is that this team will already be coming off a conference game at Kentucky. Meanwhile, we’re not going to know much about Arkansas after assumed wins over Alabama A&M and Arkansas State. The Razorbacks’ last win in Oxford came in 2017.

First loss: at Oklahoma, Sept. 20

Auburn will be nationally ranked going to Norman in Week 4 on the heels of a 3-0 start highlighted by a season-opening victory at Baylor that will recharge the fanbase a bit. Then, we’re going to watch two high-powered offenses go at it with former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold making his much-anticipated return to Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Unfortunately, for the third straight season under Hugh Freeze, the Tigers will drop their SEC opener.

First loss: at LSU, Sept. 13

Beating LSU in Baton Rouge is hard. Taking out the Tigers on the road under the lights is even more difficult. Florida is 1-6 over its last seven games against LSU away from Gainesville, and this one’s vital for the Tigers’ playoff hopes this fall. Equally important for Florida, this one’s the first of four straight against top 20 competition. The DJ Lagway vs. Garrett Nussmeier quarterback battle will be worth the price of admission.

Georgia Bulldogs

First loss: at Auburn, Oct. 11

This would rattle the SEC at midseason, right? The Bulldogs have won 11 of their last 12 against the Tigers, including eight straight, but this is a different Auburn team with Georgia coming to Jordan-Hare unbeaten (based on our projections). The Tigers have a critical open date ahead of this matchup, which could prove beneficial for Freeze and Co. He badly needs a signature win at this juncture of his Auburn tenure, and it may come in stunning fashion against one of the Tigers’ chief rivals.

Kentucky Wildcats

First loss: Ole Miss, Sept. 6

Mark Stoops can laugh his way to the bank if Kentucky’s able to upend Ole Miss for a second straight season in Week 2 this fall. He took the Wildcats to Oxford last season and disrupted what was supposed to be a playoff run for the Rebels. You think Ole Miss has something to prove in Lexington this time around? We do. No season-spoiler repeats this time around.

LSU Tigers

First loss: at Clemson, Aug. 30

While the Tigers are one of four SEC teams we’ve projected to reach the playoff this fall, there’s going to be some complaining after the opener. Another missed opportunity in Week 1 won’t sit well with the fanbase following an offseason of hype thanks to significant player acquisitions in the transfer portal. That said, how the Tigers respond here will ultimately determine how far Nussmeier and crew go as one of the SEC’s top teams — on paper.

First loss: Tennessee, Sept. 27

That’s right — Jeff Lebby and the Bulldogs are going to start 4-0 including a win over Big 12 frontrunner Arizona State this season before coming back down to ground level in the SEC opener. Quarterback Blake Shapen is healthy and Lebby has restructured his roster through the portal after a disastrous 2024 debut.

First loss: Alabama, Oct. 11

Eli Drinkwitz needs to send the SEC office a thank you card, a bouquet of flowers and a box of chocolates for the schedule he has received in 2025. Missouri doesn’t leave its home field until Week 8 at Auburn in mid-October. Hard to believe. The Tigers play Kansas, South Carolina and Alabama during that six-game home stretch to begin the campaign and will lose at least one of those three contests.

Oklahoma Sooners

First loss: Texas, Oct. 11 (Dallas)

Imagine the hype for Red River if both teams come in unbeaten and inside the top 10? It’s possible. If the Sooners take out Michigan and Auburn during the opening month of the campaign, Brent Venables’ new-look team will have a perfect record going to Dallas. No coach in the SEC needs positive momentum early more than Venables, who took steps this offseason to ensure a repeat of 2024 does not happen.

Ole Miss Rebels

First loss: LSU, Sept. 27

The first of five games against nationally ranked competition for Lane Kiffin and the Rebels this fall, LSU strolls into Oxford to finish up a brutal first month of play that includes Clemson and Florida for Brian Kelly’s squad. The season could potentially end here for the Tigers if they don’t prevail on the road and break a streak of the home team winning in this series the previous five seasons.

South Carolina Gamecocks

First loss: at Missouri, Sept. 20

If South Carolina is able to start the season 5-0 entering its open date ahead of a showdown at LSU, the Gamecocks are going to be a trendy College Football Playoff pick at midseason. However, this program hasn’t made it through the first six weeks of the regular season unscathed since 2012 and has lost five of its last six to the Tigers, including three on the road. The first true road game for Shane Beamer’s team this fall will be a four-quarter fight and decided in the final moments.

Tennessee Volunteers

First loss: Georgia, Sept. 13

Kirby Smart owns Tennessee. He hasn’t lost to the Vols since quarterback Joshua Dobbs hooked up with wide receiver Jauan Jennings on a last-second Hail Mary to win in Athens during the 2016 season. And given Tennessee’s changes at the quarterback spot this fall, this is going to be a tough ask for whoever Josh Heupel picks to lead under center this early in the campaign against the reigning league champions.

First loss: at Notre Dame, Sept. 13

The Fighting Irish’s home opener comes in Week 3 against Mike Elko and the Aggies, who finished one win short of reaching the SEC Championship Game last fall. Notre Dame was one of college football’s hottest teams down the stretch, reaching the national title game before running out of gas against Ohio State. Much of that talent returns on the defensive side of the ball, making this one quite arduous away from home for the Aggies.

Texas Longhorns

First loss: at Florida, Oct. 4

Our preseason pick to win the SEC this season as one of four playoff teams, the Longhorns will not get through the schedule without a loss. The schedule is too treacherous compared to last season, and The Swamp could be a nightmare this fall for visiting teams. Believe it or not, these teams have played in Gainesville before, but that came in 1940. Texas leads the all-time series with Florida, 3-0-1.

First loss: at South Carolina, Sept. 13

Virginia Tech is going to start its season 0-2 with consecutive losses to SEC competition, including Vanderbilt at home on Sept. 6. And the week after that, the Commodores will get knocked from their unbeaten perch against the Gamecocks. This is an opponent Vanderbilt hasn’t solved in SEC play since 2008 — 16 straight losses and counting. South Carolina is one of the games that quarterback Diego Pavia said this team has circled this offseason.