Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter are headed into their third season as the Colts’ offensive brain trust. They will almost certainly be on to their fourth quarterback, with Daniel Jones joining Anthony Richardson, Joe Flacco and Gardner Minshew. Amazingly, Steichen and company have survived the first two years at 17-17, but there remains serious doubt about just what this offense is supposed to be.
2024 Indianapolis Colts Stats (rank)
Points per game: 22.2 (17th)
Total yards per game: 334.8 (13th)
Plays per game: 61.2 (19th)
Dropbacks per game: 35.8 (29th)
Dropback EPA per play: -0.03 (24th)
Rush attempts per game: 29.2 (7th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.07 (16th)
Can Daniel Jones spark a Colts offensive revival?
It certainly isn’t looking like Richardson’s third chance. With Jones given $14 million in free agency and Richardson drawing the faintest of praise from the coaching staff, media, and even the new owner, there doesn’t appear to be a quarterback competition. Jones, who most recently helped the Giants secure the No. 3 overall pick last season, will be the starter barring summer catastrophe.
Passing Game
QB: Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson
WR: Michael Pittman, Adonai Mitchell
WR: Josh Downs, Ashton Doulin
WR: Alec Pierce, Anthony Gould
TE: Tyler Warren, Mo Alie-Cox, Jelani Woods
Daniel Jones, aka The Dimesman being handed the starting gig no questions asked would be a fantasy calamity for the pass catchers of almost any NFL team, but the Colts aren’t one of them. That’s because Richardson is one of the worst passers of the modern era. He has struggled to complete more than 50 percent of his career throws, while he has more interceptions than touchdowns. When Richardson scores fantasy points, they typically come on the ground. The same was often true of Jones in New York, but unlike Richardson, he provides some aerial production. Jones’ last full season, his 16-start 2022, saw him finish 14th in attempts (472) despite missing a game. That, coupled with his 703 yards and seven scores as a rusher led to a QB13 finish. In some ways, it was highly impressive. In others … well, you have to work hard to finish outside the top 12 with 703/7 rushing as a quarterback.
Jones is just a highly limited passer. He looks good compared to Richardson, but bad compared to almost anyone else. The biggest issue is his reluctance to throw down the field. That aforementioned 2022 campaign? 33 quarterbacks attempted more deep passes of 20-plus yards. That includes six players who started fewer than 10 games. Jones simply doesn’t throw deep, which is a huge problem in a skill corps that includes Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell. That down-field aversion also makes Jones more of a mono than dual-threat despite his rushing. “Better than Richardson” only gets you so far at quarterback. For Jones, it’s a matchup-based streamer in two-QB/superflex leagues.
Of course, if Jones doesn’t throw deep, he loves to throw short, which is music to Michael Pittman Jr.’s ears. Coming off a disappointing 2024 where he played through a broken back and caught just 69 balls in 16 games, Pittman managed to avoid offseason surgery. He did miss practice time after “bumping knees” in OTAs but is expected to be fine for training camp. Although he is the default No. 1 on the Colts’ depth chart, there remains a strong suspicion third-year pro Josh Downs is the more talented player. The dynamic is complicated by Downs having injury issues of his own. That includes missing offseason practice time with a soft-tissue ailment. Downs was listed with ankle, toe, groin, calf and shoulder issues last season, ultimately missing “just” three games.
Although Pittman and Downs played to a production standstill last year, Downs roasted his veteran teammate from an efficiency perspective, churning up 2.20 yards per route run compared to 1.68 for Pittman. That number was good enough for 17th in the league for Downs. Even for a supposedly context-independent stat, it was no small feat considering Downs’ quarterback play. Dominant vs. whatever kind of coverage you throw his way, Downs continues to profile as an ascending player, while Pittman is likely maxed out. Pittman, of course, deserves credit for playing through a literal broken back last season, but it’s difficult to believe he can keep holding off Downs for WR1 status.
The problem for Downs is Pittman will be, at worst, a strong No. 2, while the Colts aren’t lacking for deep options. That is to stay nothing of potential middle of the field menace Tyler Warren. All that combined with what is likely to be sub-optimum passing volume from Jones renders Downs and Pittman high-floor WR4s. Downs does maintain WR2 breakout potential because of his strong all-around skill-set. Pittman has “solid WR3” in his range of outcomes.
First-rounder Warren is the next man up in the targets pecking order. The Colts’ desire to land the Penn State product was one of the worst-kept secrets of the pre-draft process, so it’s no surprise they were reportedly peppering him with looks this spring. “It was practically impossible to watch an Indianapolis practice and not notice how often Warren touched the football,” were the words of ESPN’s Stephen Holder. “Any doubts about him having a notable role were erased in the first week of OTAs, when he could be seen running drag routes or matching up with linebackers in the middle of the field.” Awesome stuff for a team that had arguably the league’s worst tight end group last season. It’s just so hard to know where the targets are going to come from behind Downs and Pittman. Warren is a shockingly talented, versatile player, but lower-end TE1 is probably his rookie ceiling.
The one player who might actually be hurt by Richardson’s benching and Joe Flacco’s departure is deep man Alec Pierce. 34th in wide receiver yards (824) last season despite placing 73rd in wideout receptions (37), Pierce needs a big-armed quarterback who is willing to chuck it down the field. In other words, everything Jones is not. Even with Jones, Pierce is going to notch some game-altering receptions. We will simply have no idea when they might come in fantasy. Pierce is a WR5/6 probably best left on the waiver wire in 12-team re-draft leagues.
That leaves poor Adonai Mitchell as the last pass catcher worth mentioning. Last year’s first-round tumbler in the “real” draft, Mitchell never gained traction in the Colts’ disjointed offense, catching 23 total balls. He notched more than two receptions twice in 17 games. Although Richardson is out and a more conventional passing attack is in, Mitchell is the No. 5 option in an offense that should be in the bottom half of the league in attempts. That makes him a “what might have been” WR6 beginning the countdown clock to an eventual move out of Indianapolis.
Where does Pittman stack up in Colts’ WR room?
Michael Pittman Jr.’s minor knee injury isn’t a fantasy concern for Kyle Dvorchak, but the Colts’ shaky quarterback situation and Josh Downs’ rise toward the top of the depth chart at wide receiver are.
Running Game
RB: Jonathan Taylor, D.J. Giddens, Khalil Herbert, Tyler Goodson
OL (L-R): Bernhard Raimann, Quenton Nelson, Tanor Bortolini, Matt Goncalves, Braden Smith
It’s the same old story in the Colts’ backfield — Can Jonathan Taylor stay healthy? He appeared in more than 11 games for the first time in three years last season and promptly finished fourth in rushing. To make that number more impressive, he did so in just 14 games. Only Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry averaged more rush yards per game. One takeaway there, however, is that … Taylor again missed time with injury. It was again his ankle with yet another “high” sprain. The good news is, he returned in Week 8 and managed to finish the season on a heater, piling up 627 yards rushing over his final four contests. Awesome, but Taylor is now averaging just 12 appearances over the past three years, and has had one truly healthy season in half a decade. That’s why he falls to mid-range RB1 status with a late second round ADP in summer best ball drafts. It’s a tough but fair diagnosis from our most plugged-in drafters.
Behind Taylor is exciting fifth-round rookie DJ Giddens, who represents a more legitimate attempt at a change-of-pace backup than Indy mustered in 2024 with Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson. A breakaway threat in the same vein as Taylor, 6-foot-2 Giddens also tacked on 50 total receptions over his final two Big 12 campaigns. An elite athlete with 4.43 speed, Giddens is one of the league’s more intriguing insurance backs behind a starter who has been known to miss time. He is well worth a late-round flier in even the most homey of 12-team home leagues.
2025 Indianapolis Colts Win Total
The Colts’ total is typically established at 7.5. Warren Sharp charts them as having the league’s 12th toughest schedule. Not great, but that “SOS” isn’t because of their mediocre divisional competition. It also fails to take into account a soft opening slate of vs. MIA, vs. DEN, @TEN, @LAR, vs. LV and vs. AZ. The possibility is there for the Colts to establish early-season momentum. It’s just so hard to get excited when Jones is the quarterback and this in-transition franchise could be looking for reasons to start all the way over in 2026. Steichen and GM Chris Ballard possess two of the league’s hottest seats. If they falter early, a rebuilding mentality will take hold, and the over will be extremely difficult to achieve.
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