It had to be this way in the ALDS, didn’t it? After the Yankees and Blue Jays tied for the best record in the league during the regular season and chased each other all year, it’s only right that they meet now with their playoff lives at stake.
And it’s a tasty matchup, too, with New York's raw might clashing with Toronto’s less-brawny-but-mighty-effective offense. The Yanks and Jays ranked first and fourth, respectively, in MLB in runs per game this year.
The Blue Jays are rested, thanks to owning the division tiebreaker with the Yankees. They claimed the season series, beating them in eight of 13 games and outscoring them, 70-59. Home field advantage could be big in this series, too, considering the Blue Jays won six of seven at Rogers Centre and the Yankees took four of six in the Bronx.
Toronto has some rotation questions, but New York's starters are on a heater. Does Vladimir Guerrero Jr. alter his personal postseason narrative? Or does Aaron Judge, who knows a few things about having a postseason rep, lead the Yanks by destroying the series with longballs?
WHAT THE YANKEES HAVE GOING FOR THEM
It’s always worth starting with Judge, the fulcrum of the game’s best offense. The Yanks hit 274 home runs this season and Judge smashed 53 of them, while also leading the universe in rate stats — so much so that the AL MVP race might be neck-and-neck between Judge and Cal Raleigh, the Mariners catcher who hit 60 (!) homers.
Judge went 4-for-11 (.364) as the Yankees topped the Red Sox in their best-of-three Wild Card series. All of his hits were singles, but he did raise his career October average to .212.
It’s also worth noting that the homer-centric Yankees hit only two in three games against the Red Sox and still won. That’s how good their rotation was (1.33 ERA in 20.1 innings).
Max Fried was exceptional in the opener, delivering 6.1 shutout innings, and Cam Schlittler was so good in his dominant Game 3 start that his name will probably be a forever-pejorative in his native Boston, alongside Bucky Dent and Aaron Boone.
Schlittler threw eight shutout innings and struck out a dozen, sending researchers deep into the record books to produce stat links to names such as Waite Hoyt, Spec Shea and Roger Clemens.
Overall, the Yankees' rotation has been soaring. In 52 starts since Aug. 5, their starters have a 2.80 ERA and have allowed two earned runs or fewer in 41 of those games. Luis Gil or Will Warren figure to have an impact early in this series, depending on how Boone lines up his arms. If the rotation can give a sometimes-shaky bullpen fewer innings to cover, that could pump up the Yankees’ chances in the series.
WHAT THE BLUE JAYS HAVE GOING FOR THEM
Guerrero has struggled in his first six career postseason games, batting just .136 with a .422 OPS and one extra-base hit. Perhaps it’s not a surprise that the Blue Jays are 0-6 in those games.
And he’s not exactly blazing right now – he has not hit a home run since Sept. 21 and he’s got only a .596 OPS in that span, well below his season mark of .848. Still, he’s a huge talent who figures to loom in this series.
So does George Springer, who has 19 career postseason home runs — including two against the Yankees dating back to his Astros tenure — and an .875 October OPS. Springer had a .959 OPS with 32 homers this season, a nifty bounce back. His OPS last season was nearly 300 points worse.
As a whole, the Blue Jays may have hit 83 fewer home runs than the Yankees, but they excel at putting the ball in play. They had the most hits in MLB, 1,461 (90 more than the Yankees). Their 17.8 percent strikeout rate was the lowest in baseball (the Yankees were at 23.5 percent). They were tied for third in OPS (.761, 26 points lower than the Yankees) and tied for seventh in slugging.
They may not have the same kind of boldface names as the Yanks, but they still put up runs. They could be without another star, shortstop Bo Bichette, who has a left knee sprain.
Their rotation will be fronted by Game 1 starter Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber, with help from celebrated rookie Trey Yesavage. Max Scherzer has a 9.00 ERA over his last six starts and Chris Bassitt has been dealing with a back issue, so who knows what either can provide.
THE YANKEES WILL WIN THE SERIES IF…
They can keep it clean. Part of the reason they lost so many games in Toronto this year is that they made 11 errors in the seven games there, leading to eight unearned runs. Some of those were made by players who won’t have an impact on this series. But shortstop Anthony Volpe made three of them.
The Yankees weren’t nearly as sloppy toward the end of the season and did not make an error in the ALDS. But they know how much poor defense hurts – they benefited from some defensive botches by Boston.
They added Ryan McMahon at the trade deadline and he’s been terrific at third, as evidenced by the catch he made of a foul pop in Game 3, secured while going face-first over the Red Sox dugout railing. “That’s routine for him,” Schlittler said afterward.
The Blue Jays are far less likely to give defensive gifts to the Yankees – they made 30 fewer errors than Boston during the season and eight fewer than the Yankees. They boast at least two outstanding defenders – Andrés Giménez, who will sub at short for Bichette, and center fielder Daulton Varsho. That puts even more pressure on Yankees sluggers to mash.
Giancarlo Stanton, an October monster for years, was only 1-for-11 against Boston. He thought his one hit was a homer, but it didn’t get out and his trot had to turn into a sprint to secure a double. The good news for those sluggers: The Blue Jays gave up 209 home runs during the season, the most by any team in the playoffs.
Maybe Volpe, who had a nice 2024 postseason, is a big offensive factor again. He was 4-for-11 with one of the Yankees’ two homers (Ben Rice hit the other) against Boston and he’s reached base in 16 of 17 career postseason games. His October average is .300 and his OPS is .850. Not bad.
THE BLUE JAYS WILL WIN THE SERIES IF…
The bullpen drama falls their way. If they can quickly inflate the pitch count of Yankees starters, getting into their relief corps might be a path to success. That's how the Red Sox won Game 1, when Luke Weaver could not hold the lead that Fried handed him. The Yankees' bullpen had a 5.13 ERA over the final month of the season, and even after a deadline makeover, they entered October with the highest bullpen ERA of any playoff team.
Then there’s the Blue Jays’ closer, Jeff Hoffman. He had the third-most saves in the AL (33), but he also blew seven and gave up 15 home runs in 68 innings, slightly under two homers per nine innings. Does that sound like a great match against the Yankees, who had 10 players with at least 10 homers and hit 30 more home runs than the next-closest team, the Dodgers?
And they already have one game-winner off Hoffman – Rice hit a tie-breaking solo shot in the ninth inning back on July 22, their only victory in Toronto this season.
PREDICTION
Yankees in five games.
Judge goes boom (it’s going to happen in one of these series; he’s too good not to wreck one sometime), Schlittler continues to emerge as a star, and the bullpen does enough to back the rotation.
And the Yankees spike the narrative that this year’s pinstriped model can’t win north of the border.
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