With No. 12 Kentucky sitting at 15-5 (4-3 SEC) and coming off a win at No. 8 Tennessee as the calendar flipped to February, there was no doubt. Kentucky had won the breakup with John Calipari, and it wasn’t particularly close.
Now, after No. 10 seed Arkansas upset No. 7 seed St. John’s 75-66 in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday, it’s not so clear. With Calipari securing his first Sweet 16 trip since 2019, the matter is officially back up for debate.
And If No. 3 seed Kentucky fails to beat No. 6 seed Illinois on Sunday in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, Calipari and Arkansas will officially be the winner in his messy divorce with the Wildcats.
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Such an outcome seemed inconceivable less than two months ago. But the math began changing in a big way on Feb. 1.
That’s when Calipari’s Razorbacks marched into Rupp Arena and dominated the Wildcats for an 89-79 win on a night that was supposed to be a celebration for Big Blue Nation.
The Wildcats had freed themselves from the diminishing returns of the Calipari era and reignited their program with a beloved former player in Mark Pope as coach. Calipari appeared destined to miss the NCAA Tournament with the Razorbacks, who were off to a 1-6 start in SEC play. All the while, Kentucky was riding high.
But when Calipari marched out of Lexington with a win, it changed everything. The outcome underscored the challenges Kentucky would face in navigating injuries and foreshadowed the potential in Arkansas that came to fruition on the national stage this weekend.
Regardless of when Kentucky’s run ends, Pope has restored optimism at Kentucky. He is a passionate, sincere and capable leader who has guided Kentucky to a whopping eight wins over top-15 foes while navigating health issues with Jaxson Robinson, Lamont Butler, Andrew Carr and Kerr Kriisa.
If the Wildcats falter against the Illini, it will largely — and not incorrectly — be chalked up to a bad run with injuries. Robinson is done for the season with a wrist injury, and Butler is basically playing with one arm amid a nagging shoulder injury. Kriisa played in just nine games before getting shut down for the season, and Pope had to work around a lingering back issue with Carr for several weeks.
If we’re talking about future lottery picks, this is the least-talented Kentucky roster since Calipari arrived in 2009. And yet, Pope took UK further in the NCAA Tournament than Calipari did in 2024 when he had two lottery picks.
But Kentucky’s national-title winning, Hall-of-Fame ex-coach is showing he’s still got it, all while dealing with a similarly brutal run of injury luck.
Arkansas hasn’t had leading scorer Adou Thiero since Feb. 22 due to injury and just got second-leading scorer Boogie Fland back from injury this weekend after he missed two months.
Somehow, he kept the Razorbacks together with a 7-man rotation over the season’s final couple of weeks and then successfully reincorporated Fland, a freshman, at the season’s most critical juncture.
Calipari certainly rummaged around in the dredges for a couple of months to begin this season. But as Kentucky fans were so quick to point out amid his recent March failures, this sport is mostly about what you do in the NCAA Tournament, and Calipari is still here.
The truth is, both sides are better off now than they were before. Kentucky and Calipari both escaped an increasingly toxic relationship and are doing well with their new partners.
But every breakup has a winner, and if Kentucky doesn’t win Sunday, the Year 1 winner of this breakup will clearly be Calipari.
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