On NASCAR’s Inside the Race podcast with Steve Letarte and Kyle Petty, they broke down the recent race at Michigan International Speedway, which featured a record-number of cautions.
One of those cautions involved Tyler Reddick, whose incredible top 15 streak came to an abrupt end in a restart pileup. It was the 23XI Racing driver’s first DNF of the 2026 season.
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Reddick held a 129-point lead before the Coca-Cola 600, and it looked as if no one would catch the No. 45 before the end of the regular season. And yet, his boss Denny Hamlin has managed to slice away at that once-mighty margin in three short weeks.
It fell from 129 to 122 points at Charlotte, so not much change there, but at Nashville, a top ten finish wasn’t enough for Reddick as Hamlin claimed victory, bringing the gap down to just 97 points.
At Michigan, Reddick was once again fast, but a restart pileup ended his day early. Coincidentally, Hamlin spun in the same wreck, and Austin Dillon ended up nailing Reddick’s car (which had already impacted a wall) while trying to avoid Hamlin, so there was a bit of luck involved there.
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Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing, Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing, Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing
Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing, Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing, Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing
But there was no luck in Hamlin going on to win the race by over eleven seconds, earning back-to-back wins as NASCAR heads to one of his strongest tracks, Pocono.
And so, Petty believes that Hamlin will overtake Reddick for the championship lead before the end of Race #26 and the Chase reset.
“Where he’s at right now, I say yes. someone is going to have to throw cold water on him to get him to back it down, because they are white hot right now,” declared Petty.
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“Everything they do is right. I would have never thought anybody would be this close to Reddick, even in the last race. When he walked off with the regular season trophy, I didn’t think anybody was going to be within 40 or 50 points of him, and here Denny is.”
Petty went on to say that he’s ‘totally surprised’ by how quickly Hamlin has eaten into Reddick’s lead. And now that the No. 11 has both the speed and momentum, it’s going to be hard to stop them now.
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Looking ahead
However, one point in Reddick’s favor has to be the upcoming schedule, where he can certainly stop the bleeding. A street course event in San Diego followed by a road course race at Sonoma will be a great opportunity for Reddick to catch his breath.
Reddick is a proven winner on road courses, and is the only driver in the past seven road/street course events to deny Shane van Gisbergen a checkered flag. At the other end of the spectrum, Hamlin often struggles on these circuits, and has admitted as much.
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Once we get through Sonoma, there will be eight races left in the regular season, including two wildcard drafting tracks where anything can happen.
Of the remaining six, North Wilkesboro is a points race for the first time in 30 years, but Hamlin’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Christopher Bell was a winner there, and Hamlin was second the year prior.
Iowa is still fairly new to the schedule, and Hamlin hasn’t had a good finish there yet. Indianapolis is a place where he has run strong, but it’s the only crown jewel Hamlin has yet to win. Chicagoland should be a good race for all Toyota drivers, but Hamlin’s strongest tracks ahead are 100% Richmond and New Hampshire, which happen to be two of the final three races before the Chase starts.
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So, can he overtake Reddick? Absolutely. But there are obvious roadblocks ahead that he will have to navigate as Reddick must avoid further misfortune. With the way the schedule comes together, it could still go down to the wire, with Daytona ultimately deciding who enters the Chase with a 25-point buffer via the new format.
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