Why signing Blake Snell wouldn't be a smart decision for Red Sox

Why signing Blake Snell wouldn’t be a smart decision for Red Sox originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The Red Sox need to upgrade their rotation, but Blake Snell isn’t the way to do it.

The two-time Cy Young Award winner looks good on paper. It’s right there in the description: two-time Cy Young Award winner. But if ever there’s a time for John Henry to heed his old fear about signing pitchers in their 30s to huge deals, it’s Snell.

The Red Sox reportedly are engaged with the left-hander after he opted out of his contract with the Giants, and signing him will only require money and not draft picks, since he wasn’t eligible to receive the qualifying offer.

While past durability is no guarantee of future durability — the Red Sox learned that lesson the hard way with David Price, not to mention Lucas Giolito — past frailty is a neon flashing danger sign, and Snell is effectively glowing.

He has topped 130 innings exactly twice in his nine-year career, and both times he reached 180 frames while taking home the Cy Young hardware. If you’re going to pay him nine figures, you’d like a guarantee of full-time production.

But a couple of weeks shy of his 32nd birthday, Snell looks more like a 24-start, 125-inning pitcher than a horse. There’s value in that, but not if you’re the Red Sox trying to find an ace to slot atop the rotation.

Snell has missed time throughout his career with adductor, groin, shoulder, and elbow injuries, the last of which required arthroscopic surgery in 2019. He has also broken a toe moving furniture.

His 2024 was a mess, thanks to a rare miscalculation by agent Scott Boras, who held a handful of clients out until spring training with disastrous results. Snell didn’t join the Giants until late March, at which point the market for a long-term deal had evaporated. He signed for two years and $62 million with an opt-out before enduring an injury-riddled first half that gave San Francisco little return on its investment.

By the time Snell returned to form in the second half, the Giants were out of contention. Over his final 14 starts, though, he went 5-0 with a 1.23 ERA, setting himself up for another payday this winter.

He probably won’t command a six-year deal, but even at four years, the Red Sox should consider other options. What they can least afford is making a major commitment to a player who isn’t available.

The temptation to add Snell could be strong, though. In addition to not needing to forfeit a draft pick to sign him, there are also his outstanding under-the-hood numbers. His walk rate has been high his whole career because of the way his pitches move, but Snell otherwise grades highly across the board. His fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup are all legitimate out pitches, and he doesn’t give up home runs, either.

The issue is whether he’ll be available, and that possibility should trump everything else. If the Red Sox believe Snell is a breakdown candidate, they should sprint in the other direction and find pitching somewhere else.