The postseason for NASCAR’s Cup Series begins Sunday, Sept. 6 at one of the sport’s crown jewel races, the Southern 500 in Darlington, South Carolina.
Following 12 years of the win-and-in elimination-style playoff format, the Chase is back. This postseason system is designed to award consistency and drivers who have achieved success over the stretch of a long season — which began all the way back in February at the Daytona 500 — rather than drivers who simply won one race amid an otherwise mediocre season.
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The Chase doesn’t have any elimination rounds or a Final Four for the last race of the season. Simply put, the championship will be awarded to whichever driver is the most consistently great over the next 10 races.
NASCAR’s Chase features 16 drivers, a field finalized last weekend at the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona where Ryan Preece won in walk-off fashion to leapfrog Shane van Gisbergen for the final spot. Points have reset for those top 16 drivers, with Denny Hamlin at the top of the standings. The veteran Hamlin starts with a 25-point lead over second place and a 100-point lead over Preece.
“You’ve worked hard all season long to put yourself in this position. Some are in better positions than others. For me, it is exciting for us on the No. 23 team,” said Bubba Wallace, seeded 14th entering the Chase. “Really looking forward to Darlington and the next 10 weeks, but really trying to not get too far out ahead of ourselves. One step at a time. Base hits. Our Toyotas are stupid fast. We’ve recognized that many months ago. So, just continue to build on that and just have fun and enjoy the moment.”
Of course, a lot can happen in 10 races. While Hamlin is the favorite, drivers behind him can string together strong finishes to make a run at his throne.
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Never forget the 2011 Chase when Tony Stewart — after not winning a race all regular season — started the postseason in ninth place and popped off five victories to capture the championship.
Will the Chase’s return be as exciting? Can a driver outside of the top five make a real run for the championship?
USA TODAY Sports presents tier rankings for each of the 16 drivers’ chances to win the Chase:
The favorite: Denny Hamlin
At 45-years-old, Hamlin is the oldest full-time active driver in NASCAR’s Cup Series, but he’s still seeking his first championship. Hamlin seemed to be on his way to winning it all last year at Phoenix before a late caution restacked the cars up and Kyle Larson got a good run on the restart to take the championship.
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This year, Hamlin has looked like the best driver since June when he ripped off three consecutive victories at Nashville, Michigan and Pocono. He hasn’t won since then, but has been the model for consistency, powering his No. 11 Toyota to top-five finishes in five of the last eight races and finishing no worse than 12th in the three others.
Six of the 10 Chase races are on tracks where Hamlin finished in the top-10 at earlier this season, a group that includes Las Vegas where he won at in March. Hamlin has also typically been strong at Darlington, where the Chase opens with the Southern 500. He has an average finish of sixth across his last five races there.
Strong contenders: Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, Chase Briscoe
Blaney has been the best Ford driver all year long with three victories and is tied with Hamlin for the most top-10 finishes on the year with 17. While the Fords haven’t been all that great on the intermediate mile-and-a-half tracks this season, Blaney did run well at Charlotte, Michigan and Texas. The Chase also features three short tracks, where Team Penske has been very strong this season. Blaney, who won the championship in 2023, should be in the mix to capture his second title.
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Reddick started the season on an absolute tear, winning five of the first nine races and building a points lead that — at the time — seemed insurmountable. But mistakes and bad luck have hounded the No. 45 Toyota since. Lately, his 23XI Racing team has been able to fight through errors to salvage strong finishes. If Reddick can build momentum, he could pose a threat to his team’s co-owner, Hamlin.
After a rough start that saw him finish 36th or worse in three of the first four races, Briscoe has shown speed and grit at every style of track. In addition to his lone win at Chicagoland, Briscoe has finished inside the top five at Atlanta, Bristol, Kansas, Watkins Glen, Nashville, Sonoma, North Wilkesboro, Indianapolis and Richmond. With mostly short tracks and intermediates ahead, Briscoe will have the opportunity to piece together a run.
Good chances: Ty Gibbs, Christopher Bell
While Gibbs has two wins at short tracks this season — Bristol and Iowa — he’s also developed a penchant for having issues on pit road that cost him key positions. Gibbs has also struggled on superspeedways this season, which doesn’t bode well for his chances at Talladega, the third-to-final race in the Chase.
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Bell has shown speed all year, but hasn’t won. After taking four checkered flags last year, he’s finished second an astonishing seven times this season. The good news for Bell is that the Chase does feature four tracks he has won at in previous seasons: Bristol, Charlotte, Phoenix and Martinsville. If the No. 20 Toyota can capture a checkered flag or two, he could make some real gains on Hamlin’s lead.
Don’t count them out: Kyle Larson, Joey Logano
Larson, the reigning champion, has not won a race since May 11, 2025. Still, many inside the garage believe Larson is still the most talented racecar driver in the Cup Series. As evidenced by his part-time dirt racing career, It’s obvious that Larson still knows how to win. With Larson’s pedigree, Hendrick Motorsports’ equipment and crew chief Cliff Daniels calling the shots, it would be foolish to write Larson off as a non-contender this season.
Then there’s Logano, a three-time champion in the old playoff format. After some early season struggles, the 36-year-old driver of the No. 22 Ford captured wins at North Wilkesboro and Richmond — and placed third at the Brickyard — to vault up the point standings and get into the Chase. With championship-winning crew chief Paul Wolfe leading the team, and with multiple tracks in the Chase that Team Penske is strong at, don’t count out Logano — especially in an even year.
The wild cards: Carson Hocevar, Bubba Wallace
The 23-year-old Hocevar is quickly becoming someone that fans love and other drivers hate. Behind the wheel of the No. 77 Chevrolet for Spire Motorsports, he seems to zig when everyone else is zagging. Sometimes his creativity and aggressiveness leads to mistakes or wrecks, and other times it paves the way for strong finishes — like a pair of top-fives at Atlanta, a fourth-place finish at Darlington and a win at Talladega. Hocevar is 12th in points and has a lot of ground to make up, but he has the talent and speed to do it.
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Since rattling off five consecutive top-11 finishes to start the season, Wallace has had a feast-or-famine type of season. He finished third at Michigan, second at Naval Base Coronado and second at New Hampshire, but hasn’t had back-to-back top-10 finishes since March. Wallace has had speed all season in No. 23 Toyota, but in the Chase he’ll need to avoid mistakes and find consistency to make a real run.
Doesn’t seem like their year: Chase Elliott, Chris Buescher, William Byron
The champion in 2020, Elliott has a pair of wins this season, but has struggled over the summer. Since his last victory on May 3 at Texas, he has an average finish of 19th over his last 15 races.
Buescher has been just solid enough all year to earn a spot in the Chase, but has just two top-five finishes this season and hasn’t won a race in nearly two years. Byron also hasn’t won this year and has an average finish of 17th over his last seven races.
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Happy to be here: Daniel Suarez, Austin Cindric
Suarez should be incredibly proud of the season he’s put together. After Trackhouse opted not to bring him back, the 34-year-old from Mexico found refuge at Spire and got behind the wheel of the No. 7 Chevrolet. He’s grinded out some impressive showings, including a second-place finish last weekend at Daytona and a Coca-Cola 600 victory that saw him end a Cup Series winless streak that lasted more than two years. Still, it would be a major surprise if folks are talking about Suarez as a championship contender heading into the final race at Homestead.
The same can be said of Cindric. While a fifth-place finish at Darlington and a third-place finish at Richmond were impressive high points on his season, the No. 2 Ford for Team Penske hasn’t shown the consistency required to be a real threat in the Chase. Of the 16 drivers in the postseason field, he has the least number of top-10 finishes on the year with six. Additionally, Cindric’s strong pit crew is moving to Blaney’s No. 12 car for the Chase.
This would be crazy: Ryan Preece
Preece was the last driver to make the Chase following his dramatic overtime win in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 last weekend at Daytona, which marked the first victory in a points-paying race in his Cup Series career. The 35-year-old native of Connecticut enters the Chase 100 points behind Hamlin, making Preece’s chances of winning the championship incredibly unlikely. Preece is an avid New England Patriots fan though — could the 2026 Chase be his 28-3 moment?
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Who can win the NASCAR championship? Ranking all 16 Chase drivers
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