Introduction
It’s easy to dismiss Spring Training statistics. There are legitimate excuses about pitchers experimenting with different grips, situations, or just not concentrating as hard as they might during the regular season. If you layer those reasons on top of the typically ridiculously small sample sizes, I can understand why fans might wave away both good or bad results from Spring Training. And while I sincerely doubt that Vance Honeycutt, the owner of a .171/.284/.275 slash line at High-A last year, is going to hit .625 at any level, Spring Training numbers are not completely meaningless either. For instance, Nick Kurtz hit an incredible .261/.452/.522 slash line last spring – including mashing a pair homers before his unanimous Rookie of the Year campaign with the Athletics. Baseball is as much about confidence and psychology as it as about physics and strength in my opinion. Even if the actual numbers don’t matter, the direction of those numbers absolutely matters when it comes to roster construction. So now that we’re almost exactly two weeks away from Opening Day, which D-Backs players have shown the most promise?
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Jordan Lawlar – 1.174 OPS
Believe me, I know. I can hear the keyboards of the commenters clacking as I type this. The much-ballyhooed prospect has, to put it mildly, been a disappointment at the major league level to this point with a measly .165/.241/.237 slash line and a woeful 34% strikeout rate in 42 games. But he’s hit the ground running through the first half of Spring Training, posting a .323/.432/.742 slash line in ten games while demonstrating a more patient approach at the plate, collecting six walks to 10 strikeouts so far. He’s also been getting some very positive reviews from the coaching staff on his latest positional change to centerfield. There are certainly some caveats to those numbers – particularly on the opponent quality (as measured by the competitive level the opposing player competed in during the past season). Not including today’s game, Lawlar has faced off against an average of 7.7 opposing quality, which equates to somewhere around a AAA pitcher. We’ve also seen this song and dance before. Last spring, Lawlar put together a solid stint with a .294/.368/.529 slash line before posting another disappointing result with the big league club. But I’d argue this season is a different beast. He’s learning a new position, he isn’t worried about making the big league team out of camp, and he’s likely a more mature person than he’s been in the past. Given how important he could be to the team, I’ll always root for him to finally find some success.
Bryce Jarvis – 1.69 ERA
I wanted to make sure to highlight at least one pitcher finding some success in Spring Training, but it wasn’t an easy exercise. Most of the rotation members have only had a small handful of starts so far and several of the relievers have only entered a few games themselves. Additionally, pitchers are particularly prone to the small sample size problem as a single bad outing can flip your stats upside down. Even with those caveats though, it’s not a pretty picture on the pitching side. Ryne Nelson has struggled to a 5.63 ERA and already given up a pair of dingers in his three starts, Michael Soroka owns an unsightly 9.63 ERA and 2.727 WHIP in his first two starts, and Brandyn Garcia saw his scoreless streak come to an ignominious end this afternoon when he failed to record an out while allowing five earned runs – ballooning his ERA all the way to 11.25 for the spring. But Jarvis is one of the few that have managed to get into a decent amount of action – he currently leads the righty relief corps with 5.1 IP – and posted good results including the above ERA and a 0.938 WHIP. After breaking out in 2024 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.433 WHIP across 44 games, Jarvis looked like a shadow of himself last season, owning a 5.73 ERA and looking much more hittable than he had in the previous two campaigns. Now a non-roster invitee, he’ll need to prove that he deserves a bullpen slot and can return to the form that made him so successful previously – and he’s certainly done that in my opinion.
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