Two of the biggest favorites before the season to win their division were the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens. It’s hard to win a division when you start the season 1-3.
The Ravens and Chiefs are off to slow starts. The Chiefs have offensive issues and the Ravens have defensive issues. Neither team has a bad loss — the Chiefs have lost to the Chargers and Eagles, who are both 3-0, and the Ravens lost to the 3-0 Bills and 2-1 Lions — but one of them will be 1-3 after they meet Sunday (yes, they could both be 1-2-1, but we’ll deal with that if it happens).
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This is the marquee game of the late afternoon window in Week 4, and it should be. The Chiefs and Ravens aren’t bad teams. They’ve just had ridiculous early season schedules and unexpected issues. Both teams will be fine. I wouldn’t take anyone else other than Baltimore to win the AFC North. The Chargers probably should be the favorite to win the AFC West, but I also think it’s dangerous to ever count out the Chiefs. Both of these teams will be fine. But 1-3 is a heck of a big hole to dig out of.
The Ravens are 2.5-point favorites at BetMGM and that seems fair, even though Patrick Mahomes has been very good against the spread in his career as an underdog. But the Chiefs were home underdogs against the Eagles in Week 2 and didn’t cover. Their offensive issues are significant and hard to fix, because the talent on hand isn’t great. Getting Xavier Worthy back from a shoulder injury should help, if he’s healthy. Getting Rashee Rice off of suspension will help, but that’s still three weeks away. Right now the Chiefs are a team that can’t run the ball, don’t have anyone in the passing game that scares a defense and they’re turning to Mahomes to do everything. Which he often can do. But it’s a hard way to live in the NFL.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have a big Week 4 showdown against the Ravens. (Photo by Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)
(Erick W. Rasco via Getty Images)
The Ravens defense is a problem but I trust they can move the ball, even against the Chiefs. Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level again, which is no surprise. I trust them to win a tough road game, and cover the 2.5 points too. No matter which team wins, the loser is going to be in some trouble at the end of September.
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Here are the against the spread picks for Week 4 of the NFL season, with odds from BetMGM:
Seahawks (-1.5) over Cardinals
The Seahawks went from a small underdog to start the week to a small favorite, and I agree with that move. It’s way too early for any stats to normalize, but the fact that the Seahawks are No. 1 in the NFL in DVOA speaks to how good they have looked, especially on defense. The Cardinals beat the Saints and Panthers, but were out-gained by both of those teams who are a combined 1-5.
Vikings (-2.5) over Steelers
Our first early international game of the season! The Vikings and Steelers are playing in Ireland on Sunday morning. And I’m not sure what I really like about the Steelers. Their defense has been surprisingly poor. Aaron Rodgers’ passing grade at PFF ranks him 34th among 36 qualified quarterbacks. They’re averaging a brutal 2.8 yards per rush. How is this team 2-1? At least we can trust the Vikings’ defense.
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Texans (-7) over Titans
The Texans look terrible. But they’ll take their frustrations out on someone, and it might as well be a Titans team that could be the worst-coached team in the NFL.
Falcons (+1) over Commanders
Lost in the angst over Michael Penix Jr’s struggles last week is the play of the Falcons defense. It looks much improved. This seems like a good time to fade the overreaction of the Falcons — who everyone loved a week ago after they dismantled the Vikings — having a bad game at Carolina.
Bills (-15.5) over Saints
In my power rankings, I had the Bills at No. 1 and the Saints at No. 32, and there was no question about either ranking. The Bills also have extra rest this week, like they needed an extra edge. They played at home last Thursday. The Saints played on the West Coast on Sunday, then come home just to go to the Eastern Time Zone for an early game. I hate taking 15.5-point NFL favorites but if anything, this line might be too low.
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Browns (+10) over Lions
It’s hard to go against the Lions after last week’s impressive win over the Ravens. But, as said in this space last week, as long as the Browns and that excellent defense are getting a ton of points, they’ll be a pick most weeks. Worked out against the Packers.
Panthers (+5.5) over Patriots
The Patriots have been a huge disappointment. Not that the Panthers look good, but New England’s issues on both sides of the ball have been odd. I expected more out of a team that added a lot of talent and got Mike Vrabel as its head coach. There’s just too much uncertainty to lay 5.5 points with them.
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Giants (+6.5) over Chargers
It’s scary to take the Giants in Jaxson Dart’s first start, which is a very tough matchup. But this game, early on the East Coast, looks like a trap for the 3-0 Chargers. The Giants will rally around Dart. I’m not saying New York wins, but I don’t think I’d use them for survival pools this week either.
Eagles (-3.5) over Buccaneers
This would generally be an easy pick for the Bucs getting points at home, but their injury report is scary. There are issues on each line, and add Mike Evans to the list. He’s very likely to be out with a hamstring injury. I like the Bucs long term but it’s hard to see them covering with so many players out.
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Rams (-3.5) over Colts
It’s hard to not be impressed with the never punt/never turn it over Colts. But perhaps the best half of football I’ve seen all season was the Rams last week at Philadelphia. The Rams blew it late, but that’s a good team. I’ll take them over the Colts, who are playing their second straight road game.
49ers (-3.5) over Jaguars
Tough to call this one. The 49ers have plenty of injuries, though it seems like Brock Purdy will return. The Jaguars have played one game away from home and they lost to Jake Browning and the Bengals. I just don’t trust the Jaguars quite yet.
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Raiders (+1) over Bears
The Bears looked great last week, but what does that mean? The Cowboys might have the worst defense in the NFL in a long time. I can’t say I’ve loved the Raiders over the last two weeks — please Chip Kelly, figure out how to get something out of Ashton Jeanty — but I’m not ready to take the Bears as a road favorite.
Packers (-7) over Cowboys
You’re not going to retire taking big road favorites in the NFL every week. But this is an angry Packers team after blowing last week’s game against Cleveland, against a Cowboys team with perhaps the worst defense in football and an offense without CeeDee Lamb and multiple starters on the offensive line. The Packers will be on just about every single NFL teaser this week.
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Jets (+2.5) over Dolphins
Good news: Two games on Monday night. Bad news: Look at the games. This matchup between 0-3 teams won’t be a ratings bonanza. We pick every game in this space every week, which is the only reason there’s a pick on either of these teams.
Broncos (-7.5) over Bengals
And here’s game two on everyone’s teaser. The Broncos have lost with no time on the clock at the Colts and Chargers, who are both 3-0. I’m not giving up on them. I do think the Bengals will play better than last week when the Vikings defense put them in a blender, but it’s still a bit of a mess in Cincinnati right now.
Last week: 9-6-1
Season to date: 23-23-2
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