Three AFC teams that entered the season as not only favorites to win their respective divisions, but also some of the teams with the shortest odds to win the AFC itself and hoist the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season.
The Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans all have losing records after three weeks. And while it’s not completely damning to start the season with a losing record, each of these teams has had warts develop that don’t seem to be going away.
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Now, each team has 14 games and a bye week to sort themselves out. But right before the quarter pole of the 2025 NFL season, I wanted to bring in each of these teams for a doctor’s visit to check those warts out and see just how worried each team should be about them.
Kansas City Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens
Houston Texans
Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)
Before I dive into the Chiefs, I have to start with the disclaimer that Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Steve Spagnuolo have earned the benefit of the doubt that they can figure out their issues. Spagnuolo’s defenses have traditionally improved over the course of a season as he hones in on his personnel and his game plans get even more hyper-specific off scouting.
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The issues for the Chiefs, offensively, have been a continuation of what was happening last season. A sheer last of explosive plays and team speed has created tight, static feelings in an offense that was once free-flowing and fast.
Chiefs’ offense feels slow because it quite literally is
With Xavier Worthy working through an injury (he could be back this week), rookie Jalen Royals also hurt and Rashee Rice serving a suspension, Mahomes has been relying on Tyquan Thornton to help open up the rest of this offense as Hollywood Brown, Noah Gray and JuJu Smith-Schuster get overextended whenever they are asked to fill out auxiliary roles. Travis Kelce lost weight to regain some explosiveness, but his blocking, which has never been a strength of his game, has now become a completely optional exercise. While Thornton has been a pleasant surprise in this offense as the deep ball threat — Mahomes’ average air yards when targeting Thornton is 25.2 so far this season — there just has been a lack of creation from all of the Chiefs’ offensive skill players, running backs included (more on them in a second).
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While the deep ball, or lack thereof, gets a lot of attention with Kansas City’s offense, the lack of explosives also comes from the depleted juice that the skill players currently have. One metric that illustrates it: The Chiefs currently average 4.8 yards after the catch per completion so far this season, which ranks 21st in the NFL. That’s easily the lowest number since Mahomes has become a starter.
Here are more. Since 2022, the Chiefs’ skill players’ top speed with the ball in their hands dropped from 13.01 miles per hour to 12.14 in 2024 (the number sits at 12.66 this year, still below the league average of 12.76 over this time period, per Next Gen Stats). The rate that Chiefs skill players reach 15+ MPH with the ball in their hands had dropped from 28.6% in 2022 to 20.3% in 2024. (It’s creeped back up 25.8% this season but 23.8% on non-Thornton plays, and both are still below the league average of 26.1%.)
If it feels like the Chiefs are slow, it’s because they quite literally are slower. Father time has affected Kelce as well. I do think that the numbers will climb though. Rice will be coming back soon, Worthy is finding his way back, and one appeal of Royals is his ability to create a bit after the catch. So I do think that this offense will get an injection of explosiveness when throwing the ball soon, especially when not having to extend role players like Gray with bigger route asks. And on top of the scrambles, Mahomes is still playing well. His underlying metrics are still good and he’s reading the game well; his intelligence and awareness continue to be vastly underrated.
What leaves most to be desired with Chiefs’ offense
Despite a few blemishes, the Chiefs’ young offensive linemen on the left side, rookie Josh Simmons and second year left guard Kingsley Suamataia, have encouraging stretches to start the young season. Suamataia played perhaps his best game as a pro on Sunday night against the Giants. This will tie into Mahomes taking deeper shots when his receivers come back.
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But then there’s the run game, which has continued to be finely blocked but has a crop of running backs that are making very little of what’s being presented to them. The Chiefs’ running backs, who still don’t have an explosive run (gain of 12+ yards) this year, is what leaves the most to be desired with this offense.
Neither Isiah Pacheco nor Kareem Hunt have the vision or explosiveness to add anything more than what’s being blocked, currently ranking 31st in yards after contact per rush, according to TruMedia. It truly is a four yards and cloud of dust run game that continues to be fairly efficient (14th in success rate), but doesn’t add any bonus to what the Chiefs are doing. Since 2024 (including playoffs), Mahomes has 15 explosive runs on scrambles, and the Chiefs’ running backs have 13 explosive runs total. That’s just not good enough, and I don’t see where the reinforcements are coming unless Brashard Smith gets worked into a larger role or the Chiefs make a trade. (Alvin Kamara, pretty please?)
Chiefs’ defense doesn’t escape culpability either
The defense has some issues, too. They’re currently poor defending out of base personnel (four defensive backs on the field) right now, which is an issue when opposing offenses dare them to match big bodies when they put tight ends and fullbacks on the field. (Like, say, the Ravens, who have run for more yards than anyone this year with two WRs or fewer on the field.)
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The Chiefs are 28th in success rate when defending out of base and are dead last defending the run, allowing a 58.3% success rate to run plays. This is a scary proposition when considering the strength of the other top teams in the AFC like the Buffalo Bills, who are willing to put jumbo personnel on the field and pound away.
And while dime (six DBs) has been a bright spot for the Chiefs so far this season, another typical strength of a Spags’ defense, blitzing, has been far less effective than usual. The Chiefs are actually generating more pressure this year when rushing four (39.4%, which ranks fourth leaguewide) than when they bring five or more (31.6%, which ranks 26th). They’re currently allowing a 50% success rate when they blitz, far worse than from 2022-2024, when they ranked third in the NFL at 39.8%.
Cornerback Kristian Fulton should be returning soon, which could help have a trickledown effect of putting Trent McDuffie back into the slot and relieve Chamarri Conner of those duties. (The Chiefs have been one of the worst teams defending the slot since the start of last year, directly related to McDuffie moving to the outside.)
Still, this team just feels like it lacks the true venom that they used to have on both sides of the ball. Mahomes is still Mahomes (he’s still excellent, I promise), and Chris Jones is still ridiculously disruptive, especially against the run. I do think the reinforcements will help add the speed that this offense desperately needs, but there also have to be some new ideas to open up that speed. While I hope that comes after their Week 11 bye, the Chiefs’ coaching staff that has had many of the same faces on it for years, so we might have to wait longer.
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Baltimore Ravens (1-2)
First, just take a moment to look Lamar Jackson’s stats. They are simply hilarious. A 12% touchdown rate, 0% interception rate, 83.6 QBR, and a passer rating of 141.8. I don’t even have to use advanced to stats to say “yeah, that’s good!”
The biggest glaring weakness with this Ravens team is on the defensive side of the ball. A gigantic wart that Dan Campbell’s Detroit Lions couldn’t stop picking at on Monday night.
Ravens cannot stop the run, at all
To put it bluntly: This team stinks at stopping the run. The Ravens’ defense is currently allowing a success rate of 51.2% on designed run plays this year. If that sounds high, it’s because it is; 51.2% would be a top-five rushing offense over the past two decades.
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It wasn’t just a Hank Fraley/John Morton game plan that gave the Ravens fits, either. Since Jackson became the Ravens’ full-time starting quarterback in 2019, Monday night’s loss to the Lions was the sixth-worst in terms of success rate allowed by a Ravens defense in a single game. And that wasn’t even their worst game this season! The Ravens yielded their third-worst success rate allowed over this time period in Week 2 against the lowly Browns offense. And Week 1 against the Bills wasn’t much better.
The Lions gashed the Ravens with just about every type of run play, but particularly the duo run concept, like on David Montgomery’s long run in the third quarter.
This is where the lack of stoutness of the Ravens’ defensive tackles is felt, especially with Nnamdi Madubuike (who is more of a gap shooter-type anyways). But the lack of strong play behind the Ravens’ defensive line is felt, too. Linebacker Roquan Smith is constantly a step slow, mentally and physically, and is getting reached by climbing offensive linemen and washed out of plays. Smith’s average speed has dropped from 10.76 MPH when he arrived in Baltimore to 10.18 (a career low) so far this season. The amount of plays he’s reached 15+ MPH — a stat which, yes, has some noise given the position he plays — has dropped from 10.9% to 8.9% so far this year. This completely matches the eye test, even going back to the start of last year, and is a real conundrum considering Smith’s role in this defense.
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The Ravens have faced 37 duo runs this year, per FTN. They’ve allowed 7.2 yards per attempt and a 59.5% success rate on those runs. The Ravens have surrendered 13.31 total EPA to just duo runs this year, easily the most in the NFL. The Bills have surrendered the second-most, and it’s nearly 10 points fewer 3.42 EPA. To put this in context: The difference between the Bills in second and the Seahawks in 27th is the same as the difference between the Ravens in first and Bills in second.
That’s not good! And it’s on film! And there are plenty of offenses that will gladly pound away with a simpler run like duo if they know they can get five or more yards a pop while also keeping the explosive Ravens offense off the field.
Why Ravens’ offense has felt shaky despite scoring tons of points
Baltimore’s offense hasn’t been perfect, either. Despite those gaudy Jackson statistics. Derrick Henry’s runs, while still explosive, have been far less efficient this year. On top of the costly fumbles, the Ravens’ success rate on running back runs has dropped nearly 10 points in efficiency when compared to 2024, going from 41.5% to 31.8% (which ranks 22nd).
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So there’s a lack of sustainability that’s felt in this offense. More three-and-outs, and more reliance on big plays, especially from Jackson. Fullback Patrick Ricard has been out. Tight end Isaiah Likely, too. And while their returns will definitely help (remember those Chiefs base defense stats?), the Ravens’ offensive line isn’t exactly a collection of world-beaters and looked overwhelmed at times against the Lions’ front.
Jackson has occasionally opted for heroics this season, but I do think some of that is because of how much he feels he has to push the ball to create plays in this offense. So far, 47.4% of his throws have traveled 10 or more air yards this season, 15% higher than his typical career rate. He’s been able to string these plays together, and the Ravens are still scoring a ton, but a possible reason why it feels like they can’t put teams away is because of their lack of run game sustainability on both sides of the ball.
This offense is still one of the game’s best and I trust that this run game will get back to an above-average level in due time. But this defense’s leakiness is starting to threaten to sink the whole operation. And I’m struggling to figure out what the answer could be, other than looking to try and add some beef in their interior defensive line on the trade market. (Or can they coax Michael Pierce out of retirement?)
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Houston Texans (0-3)
SAVE C.J. STROUD. SAVE THE WORLD.
What a mess the Texans’ offense is. I don’t think anyone needs a deep dive to explain that.
Texans’ O-line is ruinous, again
They’re bad on early downs. Even worse on late downs (their 24.2% third-down conversion rate ranks last). They’re bad at running the ball (last in success rate at 24.6%). They’re bad in the red zone (0% TD rate on only four red zone trips). They rank 24th in penalties per offensive snap. C.J. Stroud can barely stay upright. And when he does, he looks rushed with his decision-making. This offense looks lethargic and uninspired, and their production and record reflect that.
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Houston’s offensive line nuked its 2024 season, and despite new faces all over and a new offensive line coach and offensive coordinator, the problems remain. And I don’t want to use this part of the article to say “I told you so,” but after the Texans started free agency by adding castoffs like Laken Tomlinson, Ed Ingram, and Cam Robinson, all of whom allowed some of the highest pressure rates at their positions in 2024, it didn’t seem like the Texans’ decision-makers realized how drastically bad their situation was, and just who they were looking at as saviors. Now that it seems like those new players didn’t magically get better overnight, it really is a great time to share a line from my “Football 301” co-host Charles McDonald: “Different doesn’t always mean better.”
New offensive line coach Cole Popovich was still part of this staff over the past two seasons when the Texans trotted out some of the NFL’s worst units. And it’s not like he has a deep résumé of success outside of being around Bill Belichick for a few years (which isn’t as much of a proud claim these days).
Houston’s problems with personnel usage
New offensive coordinator Nick Caley had an interesting background with Belichick in New England and then with Sean McVay in Los Angeles. I was very curious how he would deploy his personnel, considering the stylistic differences that Josh McDaniels and McVay have. Would Caley prefer a motion-heavy offense with plenty of under center and 11 (one RB, one TE, three WR) personnel, or would he be more of a static “at you” offense featuring a fullback and downhill runs?
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When the Texans added Christian Kirk and two Day 2 wide receivers from Iowa State in the draft, tt seemed to me that they’d be leaning more toward a Rams style of attack. Which was intriguing to me! But now that the games are mattering, it seems that Caley has defaulted to something he feels more comfortable with, which is more static and more plodding and feels archaic.
The Texans have used 21 personnel (two RBs, one TE, two WRs) on 23% of their early down snaps so far this season. A harbinger for how this offense was about to be deployed? Patriots tree favorite fullback Jakob Johnson making the roster and actually playing. In fact, Johnson has played 40 offensive snaps so far this season, while third-round rookie Jaylin Noel has played a grand total of 41. And that was with Kirk missing time! While the “Patriots way” is to let rookies earn their playing time, it’s a hard argument for Noel not to see the field when he’s also being tasked with the responsibility to return punts as well.
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The Texans don’t even use play action to help balance out their tight offensive looks, ranking 28th in early down play action rate. And they’ve been drastically better (at least relatively) when they trot out 11 personnel on early downs, with a 39% success rate (ranking 20th) compared to 30% in all other personnel groupings (31st).
Every facet improves when they get more speed on the field, from efficiency to explosiveness (9.3% to 13.3% explosive play rate, a jump from 17th to seventh). I feel like this shouldn’t even be much of a change from what Caley had been around with the Rams to the Texans’ current personnel make-up. Just put your faster, better players on the field and figure out a way to make it work. Use those wide receivers!
Running backs can’t block either
The Texans’ running backs are a bit of a mess as well. Nick Chubb has been fine, but he’s still a negative in pass protection. In fact, Houston’s backs in pass protection have been as much of a mess as the offensive line, allowing four pressures this year on top of the continued mental botches they’ve had.
The Texans’ offense needs to start picking it up, and fast. Their defense and pass rush will help them stay in plenty of games, but even that tenacious front gets defanged a bit when they’re constantly on the field and in neutral game scripts where they can’t pin their ears back and go.
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The offensive talent isn’t a bunch of world-beaters, but Nico Collins is an excellent receiver and there is enough auxiliary talent around him for Stroud (who I still believe is a very good quarterback, despite the struggles) to target and create at least an average passing game. But the coaches need to figure out how to use their personnel, and they need to do it quickly, as the AFC South is a lot more competitive than it seemed before the season.
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