We have pick-by-pick data from paid-only leagues on Underdog dating back to 2020. This column will look at the trends from the best and worst teams from strictly a data perspective, before I translate what it means for the best 2026 fantasy football strategies.
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Strategy No. 1: Have Exactly 3-4 RBs Through Round 8
Here’s a look at the optimal time to draft running backs based on average team points from last season.
(Hayden Winks)
These charts are intimidating, but take the time to scan them. They’re really helpful!
This chart shows how many points fantasy teams average depending on how many RBs they’ve drafted through each round. For example, the first red dot shows teams who don’t draft a RB in Round 1 are barely out-scoring teams who select a RB in Round 1. And teams with 4 RBs through 18 rounds have been outscoring teams with 5+ RBs through Round 18. This comes from half-PPR and from best ball, but we can extrapolate it to managed PPR leagues with some obvious adjustments, too.
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The data in half-PPR was overwhelmingly in favor of starting drafts with RB-heavy builds from 2020-2025. This was specifically true in Rounds 2-7. Things won’t look as drastic in full PPR leagues, and it’s still possible to hit the nuts in a Zero RB build, but what’s the upside for taking on the very provable extra risk?
The best builds have been just playing for starting-lineup projections, which usually means an RB in the flex. The data from the 2020s has suggested having our RB2 by Round 7 at the latest, but I’ll take it a step forward and formally suggest having our RB3 through Round 8 this season.
There’s a projection fall-off in the Round 7 range this year. We go from Tony Pollard, Rhamondre Stevenson and Jadarian Price to Jonathon Brooks and Kenneth Gainwell in a span of just 2-3 rounds this year. I really want the former in my flex rather than going with a WR4 or Gainwell.
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I’m also open to having my RB3 be as early as Travis Etienne Jr., Javonte Williams or Josh Jacobs depending on the format and players available. When I do draft a true Robust RB team (3 RBs through Round 5), then I’m often barely touching the position for the rest of the draft. That could mean a RB4 in Round 10 and calling it quits, or two dart throws late in the draft as my RB4 and RB5.
Strategy No. 2: Have Exactly 2-3 WRs Through Round 5
Here’s a look at the optimal position to draft wide receivers based on average team points from last season.
(Hayden Winks)
Even with RBs being undervalued since 2020 with NFL defenses shifting and offenses using more heavy personnel, there is still plenty of value at WR in fantasy football.
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Teams with 2-3 WRs through Round 5 have clearly outscored teams with fewer (or more!) than that threshold. It hasn’t been close on average either, with teams averaging 15 more points across the regular season on a massive sample size. And remember, this is in half PPR! In full PPR, this will only materialize further.
This trend could matter even more in 2026 with NFL teams expected to trot out even more TEs than they did in recent seasons. When that happens, there are fewer WRs on the field and those WRs get an even higher target share than normal. That means that the No. 1 WR on each NFL team is separating from the No. 2 and especially the No. 3 WR. The WR depth in the middle rounds is going to feel a bit worse, which makes the early-round WRs without playing time concerns relatively more valuable.
For example, all of the Jaguars WRs face real snap concerns, as there are four of them and the offense is going to use 2- and 3-TE sets more than normal. If it’s a full-blown rotation, then all Jacksonville WRs are going to struggle being fantasy starters. That means WRs like Terry McLaurin, who won’t come off the field but go inside the top-five rounds, are relatively more valuable now.
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Strategy No. 3: Be Very Picky with Elite TEs (AKA, Draft Loveland)
Here’s a look at the optimal time to draft tight ends based on average team points from last season.
(Hayden Winks)
Elite TE data is very noisy because of small samples, but it hasn’t been pretty since the peak of the Rob Gronkowski era. Teams drafting a TE before Round 10 have been worse than teams without a TE1 before Round 10, and the gap between the two is actually widest when teams didn’t draft an “Elite TE” in the first five rounds.
This does not mean we can’t take our shots on elite TEs, but we have to be picky. Far pickier than the market has been since 2020.
That said, I am very open to Brock Bowers at the end of Round 2 and Colston Loveland in Round 4 this fantasy draft season. These two are future All-Pro talents with the upside to be clear top targets on their teams. If forced to be picky about one of them, I worry far more about Trey McBride’s ADP with very shaky QB play and solid teammate competition.
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Bowers and Loveland are even more valuable in full-PPR redraft leagues for a couple reasons, too. We have to actually set our lineups, unlike in best ball where we can just play ping-pong with TD scoring. More importantly, the gap between the elite TEs and the rest of the pack shows itself when we get the extra half point per reception. Fringe TE1s like Mark Andrews can get lucky with TDs, but it’ll be hard to replicate the 8+ targets we can expect from Bowers and McBride on an every-week basis.
If we don’t get Bowers or Loveland at a good draft-price tag, then I’m often waiting until Kyle Pitts Sr. or Dalton Kincaid much later on. This is in redraft and best ball.
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In both formats, we should almost always wait until Round 10+ to get our TE2s.
Strategy No. 4: Avoid QB2 before Round 9
Here’s a look at the optimal time to draft quarterbacks based on average team points from last season.
(Hayden Winks)
There hasn’t been much of a difference between elite QB and punt QB strategies on the averages. Both strategies can obviously work, but waiting on QB becomes more valuable in redraft and in PPR leagues. In redraft, we can find usable QBs on the waiver wire and play the matchup game. In PPR, the other positions score a higher percentage of a fantasy team’s points, so the QBs become less impactful. Know your league settings.
A clear trend is waiting until about the double-digit rounds to get your second QB. This would be especially true in redraft leagues where it’s not even a requirement to have a second QB. I’d also say this is true in 2026, where we have about 20 QBs projecting for fringe QB1 numbers. In 8- and 10-team leagues, it’s really advantageous to wait on QB to take advantage of the flat scoring from QB3 to QB20.
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If we’ve drafted one of the semi-elite QBs (like Jayden Daniels in Round 6), then we should be skipping the Trevor Lawrence to Patrick Mahomes tier of QBs. My favorite QB2 targets this year are Kyler Murray, Jordan Love and Malik Willis.
Meanwhile, take more flex options in Round 7-9, as the opportunity cost at RB goes from potential upside flex plays (like Blake Corum) down to pure risky backups (like Tyler Allgeier). A similar drop-off occurs at WR. Picking our backup QB after the drop-off happens at other positions is clearly paying off.
Conclusion
The balanced builds are winning. That’s the Law of Diminishing Returns in effect.
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Most of our leagues include a flex spot (or two) and that means punting on RBs and WRs is just never going to work. We’re better off loading up on those two positions, while being very selective at QB and TE. Elite QB, and at a lesser frequency Elite TE, can work, but I’d be price conscious in full-PPR.
Our teams should compete if we stick to the basics: 2-3 WRs fairly early, 3-4 RBs by the prime flex rounds, be picky with our elite TE selections and punt QB2.
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