Saturday’s game between USC and No. 4 Penn State lost a bit of its luster last weekend when USC fell to Minnesota 24-17. USC’s second second of the season knocked the then-No. 11 Trojans all the way out of the AP Top 25. So, what could’ve been a clash of top-10 teams is instead a meeting between two brand-name programs seemingly headed in different directions.
There has been plenty of reminiscing this week about the last time these teams met. It was one of the best Rose Bowls ever played as USC outlasted Penn State 52-49 in a 2017 New Year’s Day thriller. The game featured 35 players who went on to play in the NFL with USC’s Sam Darnold throwing for 453 yards and five touchdowns, while Penn State running back Saquon Barkley had 249 total yards and three scores of his own.
But reminiscing about the days of old has been far too prevalent when talking about a USC program that hasn’t won a conference championship since 2017 — a title win that ended a decade-long drought after the Trojans won at least a share of seven straight conference crowns from 2002 to 2008 as well as two national titles.
While that level of success is difficult to attain, most everyone believed USC would take major steps toward contending on a national basis after it lured Lincoln Riley away from Oklahoma in 2021. After all, Riley came to Los Angeles fresh off leading the Sooners to three College Football Playoff appearances in five seasons. As we approach the halfway point of Riley’s third season leading the USC program, however, we’re all still waiting.
A promising start that saw the Trojans win the Pac-12 South in Riley’s first season ended when Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams came up limping in the Pac-12 Championship against Utah thanks to a hamstring injury. Williams did his best to play through it, but he and the Trojans fell short.
In 19 games since, including a surprising Cotton Bowl loss to Tulane, the Trojans are 11-8. That includes a mediocre 6-6 in conference play. This season started well enough with a 27-20 win over then-No. 13 LSU in Las Vegas. There were even some bright spots in a narrow 27-24 loss to Michigan at The Big House. But any positive feelings about the team’s performance in those games have vanished with last week’s loss.
Bear Alexander may not have been a key contributor for an improved USC defense, but it’s hard to deny the performance has slipped since he announced he was redshirting the rest of the season; his absence has been a blow to USC’s depth. Then there’s the loss of linebacker Eric Gentry, who was USC’s leading tackler before suffering an injury in the win over Wisconsin and missed last week’s loss to Minnesota. During his media availability this week, Riley said the idea Gentry could be done for the rest of the season and a redshirt is “a possibility.”
Then there are the fans who have openly wondered if it’s time to bench Miller Moss for Jayden Maiava after Moss has thrown four interceptions in his last three games, including two in last week’s loss to Minnesota. While Riley hasn’t given much credence to that idea, these are hardly the kind of things you want to be dealing with ahead of a visit from a top-five team with an elite defense.
It’s not out of line to wonder if Saturday’s affair with Penn State will be a turning point for the program under Riley. It’s the kind of game he was brought in to win and simply hasn’t won enough of. With the defensive performance slipping and attrition on the depth chart, can the tactical offensive genius find a way to put up enough points against a Penn State defense that’s smothered opponents and ranks near the top of every statistical category out there?
Recent history suggests otherwise!
While at Oklahoma, Riley had an impressive record of 7-4 against top-10 opponents and 16-6 against ranked teams. At USC, even with the win over LSU this season, he’s 0-2 against top-10 teams and 4-8 against ranked opponents.
A loss against the Nittany Lions would drop the Trojans to 3-3 on the season and 1-3 in the Big Ten. They’d effectively be eliminated from the Big Ten title race as well as the College Football Playoff before mid-October. A win could be a springboard to a late run as the schedule eases up considerably after this weekend.
It’s the kind of game where the results could be felt for a long time.
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