The US Open gets underway on Sunday in New York, and the first round has plenty to offer beyond y finding out how much money you want to lay on Carlos Alcaraz, Aryna Sabalenka or one of the other tournament favorites.
I tend to be a little more aggressive in the opening round. We have a full summer of hard-court results to work with, while the market can still lean too heavily on name recognition and rankings.
That gives us opportunities with spreads and totals. It’s a chance to get paid on softer lines.
Here are my favorite men’s and women’s first-round bets for the 2026 US Open. Odds are as of Aug. 28 and are subject to change.
Get our best bets for the opening round of the US Open, including moneyline, spread, total and underdog picks for the men’s and women’s draws.
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Best US Open men’s first-round bets
Best moneyline bet
I don’t need the best stuff from Norrie; I need him to be Cameron Norrie for three sets before Van Assche can win three.
Norrie is still one of the more frustrating players on tour to play in a Grand Slam because he makes you earn everything. The lefty doesn’t give away a ton of easy points; he’s comfortable extending rallies, and he has considerably more experience navigating best-of-five tennis.
Van Assche has made real progress and is up to No. 40 in the ATP rankings; it’s not a cakewalk. That’s also why we’re getting a playable -185 instead of something closer to -300. Norrie has the more trustworthy floor, and at this price I’m comfortable backing him to advance.
Best spread bet
This means Shelton needs to win in straight sets, and it’s a tall task but something that should be doable.
Shelton comes into New York after winning in Canada and has looked like one of the most dangerous American players on hard courts this summer. His serve was always going to play at the US Open, but the rest of his game has caught up enough that he’s no longer completely dependent on winning tiebreaks.
Griekspoor can make this interesting because of his own serve, but there is a significant gap between these two when Shelton is playing at his best. I’m willing to bet that the American gets one break in each set or wins a tiebreak when necessary. At +125, I would rather take the chance on the sweep than lay around -400 on Shelton’s moneyline.
Best over/under bet
It’s strange seeing Tsitsipas on the other side of a first-round matchup where he’s clearly the second choice, but that’s where his game is right now.
Fils is coming off the biggest title of his career after winning Cincinnati, and he has already beaten Tsitsipas four times. More importantly, the matchup makes sense. Fils can pressure the Tsitsipas backhand, take control with his forehand, and make the Greek defend far more than he wants to.
I’m not betting Fils at a massive moneyline price, but I do think there’s a good chance he wins this match without needing five sets. A 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 win comfortably stays under this number, and even a more dominant four-set win can sneak below it. If Tsitsipas turns this into a long fight, we’re probably dead, but his recent form against top hard-court competition doesn’t give me much confidence that happens.
Best underdog bet
This is a sweaty underdog bet. Cilic’s serve gives him a way to steal sets, shorten points and put Rublev under immediate pressure.
Rublev is rightfully favored, and his baseline consistency should give Cilic problems. Still, +240 feels a little too big for a former US Open champion who can generate this many free points on a hard court.
Cilic also knows how to handle a match like this. I don’t expect him to revert to two weeks suddenly, and I don’t need that. I need one vintage performance in a matchup where Rublev can become increasingly uncomfortable if Cilic keeps holding serve. At better than 2-to-1, I’ll take my chances.
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Best US Open women’s first round bets
Best moneyline bet
This is much closer to the price I’m willing to lay in the first round. Siniakova leads the head-to-head 2-1 and won their only previous meeting on a hard court. She also has the more reliable all-around game when points get extended.
There are also some questions surrounding Cocciaretto coming into New York. She retired from each of her last two matches in Toronto and Cincinnati, so I’m not exactly eager to back her in a Grand Slam opener.
Best spread bet
I’m willing to pay a little more to back Navarro in straight sets instead of laying -440 on the moneyline.
This is a difficult surface and matchup for Boisson to upset Navarro. Navarro is the better hard-court player; she’s far more comfortable absorbing pace and redirecting it, and she should have a sizable advantage whenever Boisson’s first serve isn’t landing.
The biggest concern is Navarro making this more complicated than necessary. She’s had some interesting results lately. Still, the gap between these two is wide enough that I have a hard time seeing Boisson consistently holding serve or creating enough pressure on Navarro’s service games to win a set.
Best over/under bet
There will always be some hesitation fading Stephens at the US Open. She’s a former champion, the crowd will be behind her, and she’s played some of the best tennis of her career in New York.
I’m still doing it.
Stephens is now No. 208 in the world, while Tauson enters at No. 42 and has a much easier path to controlling rallies with her power. Stephens can still flash, but maintaining that level for an entire match has been the bigger problem.
The key is getting plus money on the under. Something like 6-3, 6-4 gets us home with room to spare, and I think a comfortable Tauson win is more likely than the price suggests.
Best underdog bet
Jovic deserves to be favored, but +285 is a big number against a player as experienced and steady as Frech.
Jovic has been terrific and has climbed to No. 14 in the world. I’m not looking to fade what she’s accomplished. This is more about the price. Frech is No. 37, has plenty of experience in these types of matches, and is capable of extending rallies long enough to make a young, aggressive player hit another ball.
The pressure is also completely on Jovic. She’s expected to win this now, while Frech can settle into the match and make it physical. If Jovic is sharp, she probably rolls. But I don’t think the difference between these two players should produce a +285 moneyline in a Grand Slam opener.
Give me the veteran at the price.
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US Open first round betting strategies
The first thing I do before betting a first-round match is look at recent form, not just the name or the ranking. The US Open comes at the end of a long summer, and players often arrive in New York carrying injuries, struggling with their serve, or running out of gas. What somebody did six months ago matters far less to me than what they’ve looked like in Washington, Canada, and Cincinnati.
Surface is almost the most important thing to look at. A player can have a great overall record and still be a completely different player on a hard court. I want to know how often they’re holding serve, how well they’re returning, and whether their game translates.
I also don’t love laying massive moneyline prices in the first round. If I think a -700 favorite is going to dominate, I’ll usually look at the set spread, game spread, or an under instead. There isn’t much upside in risking seven units to win one when the same handicap can create a much better price.
On the men’s side, remember that we’re playing best of five. An underdog can lose two sets and still completely blow the match. That’s one reason I like taking shots on big servers at plus money, but it can also make unders dangerous. One tiebreak or an unnecessary fourth set can add a lot of games quickly.
Finally, shop the number. Tennis markets can vary significantly between sportsbooks.
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