The US Open women’s draw moves into Round 2 with plenty of big names still alive.
Early-round Grand Slam matches can create some of the best opportunities of the tournament, especially when a favorite is overpriced or an underdog has a matchup that gives her a chance to hang around or earn an upset.
For Round 2, we’ll break down our favorite moneyline bet, spread, over/under and underdog on the women’s side. The goal is to find value rather than simply backing the biggest names, and we’ll continue updating these picks as the tournament moves deeper into the draw.
Check back before every round for updated picks, odds and our best bets as we get closer to crowning a champion at Flushing Meadows. Plus, new users can bet $5 on on any US Open market and get $200 in Bonus Bets instantly at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Best US Open women’s first-round bets
Best moneyline bet
There are not many attractive short moneyline favorites on this slate, and I’m not forcing myself into an underdog just for the sake of finding a bigger number. Paolini is the safest option on the board. She is the more complete player, has far more experience in big matches, and should control most rallies against Stefanini. The price isn’t exactly exciting, but sometimes the right move is to take the better player and move on.
Best spread bet
Muchova is one of those players I trust when she is healthy because she has so many different ways to win points. Boulter has power and can absolutely make this competitive for stretches, but Muchova is the better mover and much more comfortable changing pace and extending rallies. If Muchova plays close to her normal level, I have a hard time seeing Boulter taking a set.
Best over/under bet
This feels like one of the better opportunities to target a competitive match that is more likely to go three sets. Neither Bucsa nor Sakatsume should be a competitive match. Realistically, we can get a 2-0 on either side if we get a tiebreaker involved. Honestly, this is going three, and we cash either way.
Best underdog bet
McNally at plus money is worth a shot. Navarro is the bigger name and the more consistent player overall, but McNally has an aggressive game that can make this matchup uncomfortable. She can attack the net, shorten points, and keep Navarro from settling into long baseline rallies. Solid price.
Where to bet on the U.S. Open
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Who will win the US Open?
It’s hard to imagine that Sabalenka doesn’t win this week. No one in the world has been more dominant on hard court than she. She started the summer hard-court swing 25-1 on the surface this season, with her only loss at that point coming in the Australian Open final. Even after losses in Toronto and Cincinnati, she remains the player I trust most on a fast hard court when her serve and forehand are working.
There is also something to be said for what Sabalenka has already done in New York. She has won the U.S. Open in back-to-back years and is trying to become the first woman since Serena Williams to win three straight. It feels like the entire crowd is going to be rooting for her this week. Sabalenka had a month away from competition after Wimbledon and has used Toronto and Cincinnati to get ready for New York.
US Open betting strategies
Grand Slam tennis is different from betting a standard ATP event because men’s matches are best-of-five sets. That creates more room for momentum swings, longer matches, and live-betting opportunities. I try not to overreact to one bad set, especially when backing a favorite with a strong serve who can settle into the match.
I also pay close attention to fatigue as the tournament moves along. A player coming off back-to-back five-set matches can be a much different bet than someone who has cruised through the first few rounds. That matters for spreads, totals and even live markets.
Finally, shop around before placing a bet. Tennis odds can vary quite a bit between sportsbooks, especially on game spreads and totals. Getting an extra half-game or a better moneyline price can make a big difference over the course of the tournament.
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