There will be a major spotlight on the UFC when an octagon is placed on the White House lawn on Sunday, June 14. UFC Freedom 250 celebrates 250 years of America on President Donald Trump’s birthday.
The main event will see Ilia Topuria defending the UFC lightweight title against Justin Gaethje.
After beating Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway for the UFC featherweight title, Topuria (17-0) vacated the belt to move to lightweight. The Georgian and Spanish fighter took out Charles Oliveira to win the lightweight title.
Topuria has seven wins via knockout and eight via submission. While calm in nature, when unleashed, “El Matador” is ready to put Gaethje down at “The People’s House.”
“All I’m going to need is two minutes in the octagon with you, and I’m going to put you to sleep in front of your whole family, your country, in front of everyone,” Topuria said on an episode of UFC Freedom 250 Embedded via MMA Fighting.
Gaethje (27-5), with multiple fight bonuses in his career, beat Paddy Pimblett to become interim lightweight champion. The former BMF Champion has 20 wins via knockout.
Many believe Gaethje is biting off more than he can chew. However, the American looks to prove doubters wrong with a win, referencing a classic moment in American history for motivation.
“With the way that my career has gone, this fight is just an opportunity to prove so much, and to be a legend. Miracle on Ice type of energy,” Gaethje said via The Denver Post. “I can’t wait to inspire this country.
“So many people are counting me out, but so many people believe in me. It feels really good to prove people wrong, but proving people right is special. And I have the opportunity to prove so many people right.”
With the help of the DraftKings Sportsbook, The Sporting News makes predictions on the entire UFC Freedom 250 fight card.
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UFC Freedom 250 predictions
Ilia Topuria (c) vs. Justin Gaethje for the UFC lightweight title
Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, Ilia Topuria is the -535 favorite, while Justin Gaethje is the +400 underdog.
Topuria lands 4.81 significant strikes per minute and has a 48% strike accuracy mark. He also averages 1.96 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Gaethje lands 6.48 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 7.05 strikes.
Topuria has been out of action, dealing with a personal matter. It’s unknown if that will affect his ability to end fights in brutal fashion. Speaking of, the damage Gaethje has sustained over the years is a cause for concern. It’s especially true after Max Holloway knocked him out at UFC 300.
Gaethje’s best days may be behind him. However, if he blocks a few shots and puts an uppercut into existence, he could defy the literal and figurative odds. It’s unknown if he can handle Topuria’s brutal strikes and overall aura. It could be a quick one for the Georgian and Spanish fighter.
Sporting News prediction: Topuria via KO (round one)
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Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane for the interim heavyweight title
Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, Ciryl Gane is the -115 favorite, while Alex Pereira is the -105 underdog.
A striking machine, Pereira lands 5.16 significant strikes per minute and has a 62% strike accuracy mark. Pereira also has a 79% takedown defense mark. Gane lands 5.29 significant strikes, has a 61% strike accuracy mark, and averages 0.68 takedowns landed.
Gane can strike at close range and, if in the right frame of mind, can control the pace. That is where things get interesting. He is also known for shooting for takedowns. Pereira has trained with Glover Teixeira to work on his takedown defense and overall ground game, going 1-1 against Magomed Ankalaev.
Pereira can make history by becoming a three-division champion (interim would count). Gane is still vying for world gold, and this may be his last shot. The former’s striking is lethal, and it’s unknown if Gane is equipped to handle his punches, especially with added weight. Speaking of, will the weight gain play a factor, whether for or against Pereira?
Pereira thrives under pressure and will look to hit the one shot to secure him all the glory.
Sporting News prediction: Pereira via TKO (round three)
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Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi; Bantamweights
Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, Sean O’Malley is the -440 favorite, while Aiemann Zahabi is the +340 underdog.
A former champion, O’Malley lands 6.05 significant strikes per minute and has a 60% strike accuracy mark. O’Malley is susceptible to the takedown, as seen by the eleven takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili in two fights. Zahabi lands 4.54 significant strikes and has a 47% strike accuracy mark.
The accuracy and volume with which O’Malley lands punches is a problem for fighters. Zahabi also lands for volume. The level of competition for O’Malley has been higher. Will that matter here? When Zahabi attempts a jab, O’Malley will already be moving and land flurries. Bet on O’Malley’s volume being the thing that wins him the fight.
Sporting News prediction: O’Malley via unanimous decision
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Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis; Heavyweights
Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, Josh Hokit is the -410 favorite, while Derrick Lewis is the +320 underdog.
A Dana White’s Contender Series product, Hokit lands 9.25 significant strikes per minute in four fights. Hokit landed 177 against Curtis Blaydes. He also averages 3.89 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, landing six in his octagon debut.
Lewis lands 2.46 significant strikes, has a 49% strike accuracy mark, and averages 0.55 takedowns landed. He owns the record for most knockouts in UFC history.
Known for a Colby Covington-like gimmick, Hokit has actually backed it up in the octagon. What’s impressive: his explosive style and athleticism. Lewis is surprisingly fast for his size and can pack a mean punch. Both will be swinging for the fences. It’s an interesting fight, as the act drops for Hokit when the cage closes.
Can Hokit thrive under pressure, especially with the White House as the backdrop? Lewis has struggled at times, but when motivated, he can put on an offensive clinic. It will either end quickly or be an all-out war. The prediction. The former, and an upset, but not before some fireworks.
Sporting News prediction: Lewis via KO (round one)
Mauricio Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler; Lightweights
Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, Mauricio Ruffy is the -700 favorite, while Michael Chandler is the +500 underdog.
Ruffy lands 4.19 significant strikes per minute in the octagon and has a 58% strike accuracy mark. After doing it all with Bellator, Chandler has put on entertaining fights with the UFC. A wrestler, Chandler has been more about using his fists, landing 4.04 significant strikes. “Iron” Mike averages 1.96 takedowns and absorbs 4.52 strikes.
Chandler hasn’t won a fight since 2022 and wasted years waiting for Conor McGregor. While he can surprise many, all signs lead to Ruffy, an elite striker, punishing Chandler and earning a tough win.
Sporting News prediction: Ruffy via KO (round one)
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Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus; Middleweights
Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, Bo Nickal is the -355 favorite, while Kyle Daukaus is the +280 underdog.
Nickal is a wrestling machine, as the multi-time NCAA Wrestling Champion averages 3.10 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Only two of his fights inside the octagon have made it to the third round. Daukaus lands 3.32 significant strikes per minute and averages 2.08 takedowns landed.
Nickal has shown signs of brilliance, but there are moments where he’s gotten into his own head. There’s added pressure given his support of President Trump, who will be front and center at the event. Daukaus’ last two fights have ended via a first-round finish.
It’s one of the few American vs. American fights on the card. If a motivated Nickal can smother Daukaus early with takedowns, and, if on his feet, create some distance and outpoint Daukaus, he will have all the glory at the White House. Daukaus’ best shot is to be in Nickal’s face, if he lets him, like the Reinier de Ridder fight.
Sporting News prediction: Nickal via submission (round two)
Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia; Featherweights
Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, Diego Lopes is the -162 favorite, while Steve Garcia is the +136 underdog.
Lopes lands 3.83 significant strikes per minute and averages 0.88 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Garcia lands 5.39 significant strikes and averages 0.86 takedowns landed.
Lopes landed two takedowns in his second fight against Alexander Volkanovski, but in two fights for gold, Lopes got outstruck 256-133. Garcia has punished the competition, doubling and tripling on strikes. Can Lopes, an elite finisher, adapt from the Volkanovski series?
Garcia can utilize leg kicks to distract and land hard shots to the face and gut of Lopes. Lopes will not be standing still, so this won’t be an easy one for Garcia. Still, a rising star, it may be his time to shine.
Sporting News prediction: Garcia via TKO (round two)
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