Though he has looked like one of the best fighters in the world at times in the past, Brandon Moreno’s last fight was one of his worst performances ever, losing a split decision to Brandon Royval.
Amir Albazi’s performance was not as bad against Kai Kara-France in his last fight which also went to a split decision. Albazi fought the way he usually does, but against the best opposition he’s seen to date he could not be effective as a striker and only rarely as a grappler.
Albazi may have won that split decision but it is regarded as one of the worst of the year, with 19/21 media members scoring it for Kara-France and 88.9% of fans per MMA Decisions.
As a result, Mexico’s and Iraq’s top flyweights both would like to make a statement that says they’re to be taken seriously in the title picture.
Last time out, Brandon Moreno refused to work behind his excellent jab and instead threw bad, looping overhand punches for most of the fight.
His volume was also low compared to Royval, and Moreno tried to defend his head simply with reaction speed, not any system of guard/defense.
However, Albazi is not half the striker Royval is and uses a completely different style. He is a low-output striker with few weapons who picks his shots one at a time and often tries to knock opponents out with one big punch.
That does not seem an effective process against one of the slickest strikers in the division when Moreno is on his best day. Even if he is not as his best, but is merely a little better than his worst, he should have a comfortable edge on the feet.
After all, Albazi got outstruck more than two-to-one against Kai and only landed one takedown. Kara-France and Moreno have proven to at least be on a similar level with their MMA striking.
Although Albazi’s best path to victory is with wrestling and Moreno has a 63% career UFC takedown defense, that number is deceptive. Moreno’s striking tactics, or lack thereof, often leave him in bad positions for defending shots against some of the best grapplers around like Alexandre Pantoja.
However, Moreno knows every step of how to defend takedowns and is a scrambler the likes of which Albazi has never faced, meaning he rarely allows opponents to beat him on the ground, again unless they’re Pantoja.
Unless Amir’s offensive grappling has improved a lot since we last saw him, I do not think he will have much success trying to employ it against top flyweights.
As a result, I am picking Brandon Moreno to beat Albazi by decision in the main event of UFC Edmonton.
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