The UFC returns to New Jersey on June 7 for UFC 316. The event will see two titles on the line, with the main event being Merab Dvalishvili defending the UFC bantamweight title in a rematch against Sean O’Malley.
O’Malley (18-2, 1 NC) had a seven-fight unbeaten streak end at Sphere in September after getting taken down several times against Dvalishvili (19-4). “Suga” has since recovered from an injury he believes affected him on fight night. He’s ready to hold gold again.
Dvalishvili beat Umar Nurmagomedov in September to defend the belt and win his twelfth straight contest. He avenged O’Malley’s win against teammate Aljamain Sterling, and the Georgian looks to continue his reign at the expense of O’Malley.
The co-main event will see Julianna Pena defend the UFC bantamweight title against Kayla Harrison. Winner of The Ultimate Fighter 18, Pena (12-5) shocked the world when she beat Amanda Nunes in 2021 to win gold. After losing the rematch, Pena regained the belt.
Harrison (18-1) is a two-time Olympic gold medalist who dominated while with the PFL. Currently 2-0 in the UFC, Harrison looks to end Pena’s run at the top.
Other fighters on the card include Kelvin Gastelum, Patchy Mix making his UFC debut, Kevin Holland, Joshua Van, Khaos Williams, and more.
With the help of the FanDuel Sportsbook, The Sporting News makes predictions on the entire card at UFC 316.
UFC 316 expert picks and full card predictions
Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Sean O’Malley 2 for the UFC bantamweight title
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Merab Dvalishvili is the -310 favorite, while Sean O’Malley is the +230 underdog.
Dvalishvili landed six takedowns and 82 significant strikes against O’Malley, the favorite at the time, to win gold. The champion lands 4.36 significant strikes per minute. “The Machine” is just that on the floor, as he averages 5.89 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Dvalishvili has landed 29 in his last four fights.
O’Malley became the first Dana White’s Contender Series standout to win and defend gold. “Suga” is known for his power, landing 6.70 significant strikes and has a 61% strike accuracy mark. He has landed over 200 significant strikes twice in the octagon.
O’Malley blames an injury for the loss and believes he can do enough to take the champion out. However, Dvalishvili is the real deal. He took care of Umar Nurmagomedov in his last fight by landing seven takedowns. O’Malley may be able to land better strikes this time, but Dvalishvili should shrug them off, bury him by the cage, and pick up another win against the former champion.
Sporting News prediction: Dvalishvili via unanimous decision
Julianna Pena (c) vs. Kayla Harrison for the UFC bantamweight title
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Kayla Harrison is the -650 favorite, while Julianna Pena is the +420 underdog.
Harrison, the two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo, has seven wins via submission and six via knockout. The former PFL champion dominated against former champion Holly Holm and overwhelmed Ketlen Vieira. She averages 2.75 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
MORE: Top 10 women’s fights in MMA history
Pena lands 3.25 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.81 takedowns landed. The Ultimate Fighter winner is 2-1 in her last three fights and was able to outstrike Amanda Nunes in 2021 for gold.
There’s been plenty of bad blood here, with Pena accusing Harrison of taking PEDs. While she can land takedowns, Pena is susceptible to getting dropped, holding a 23% takedown defense mark. Harrison, who may be better at adapting to a situation, can take advantage of that and stop her from gaining any momentum. With improved striking abilities and endurance, Harrison may have an edge here.
Sporting News prediction: Harrison via TKO (round two)
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer; Middleweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Joe Pyfer is the -410 favorite, while Kelvin Gastelum is the +290 underdog.
Pyfer, a Dana White’s Contender Series alum, is 2-1 in his last three fights. He lands 3.72 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.45 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Winner of The Ultimate Fighter 17, Gastelum lands 3.74 significant strikes and averages 1.10 takedowns. He has absorbed 3.48 strikes.
Pyfer can walk towards an opponent and strike them down with ease. He can create openings out of thin air. However, Gastelum has one of the best chins in the business. He hasn’t won consecutive fights since 2017 to 2018, but Gastelum is still a force. Pyfer can easily tire him out with strikes until the bell, but an upset is possible and what The Sporting News predicts.
Sporting News prediction: Gastelum via split decision
Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix; Bantamweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Patchy Mix is the -188 favorite, while Mario Bautista is the +146 underdog.
Bautista lands 5.33 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.92 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He has a 33% takedown defense mark. Mix may not have fought in a year, but the former Bellator champion is dangerous. The wrestler has thirteen wins via submission.
Unlike Patricio Freire and Michael Chandler, Mix is entering the octagon in his prime. Bautista, who beat Jose Aldo in his last fight, may try to overwhelm Mix with strikes. Even with a long layoff and the unknown factor, Mix should be able to stop Bautista from gaining momentum, take him down to the floor, and earn a submission win.
Sporting News prediction: Mix via submission (round two)
Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland; Welterweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Kevin Holland is the -280 favorite, while Vicente Luque is the +210 underdog.
Holland lands 4.19 significant strikes per minute and has a 50% strike accuracy mark. Luque, who hasn’t won two straight since 2021, lands 5.05 significant strikes and averages 0.99 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
MORE: How to bet on UFC
It has been said many times: the active Holland is either on another level in the cage or one of the most frustrating fighters out there. He will have the height and reach advantage, but Luque has an edge on the floor. Can Holland’s 54% takedown defense nullify Luque’s wrestling?
The Sporting News believes Holland can adapt well and force the fight to go the distance.
Sporting News prediction: Holland via split decision
Bruno Gustavo da Silva vs. Joshua Van; Flyweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Joshua Van is the -700 favorite, while Bruno Silva is the +440 underdog.
Van lands 8.10 significant strikes per minute, landing 342 in his last three fights. He also absorbs 5.24 strikes per minute. “Fearless” averages 1.11 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Silva is coming off a loss where Manel Kape landed triple-digit significant strikes. “Bulldog” lands 3.54 significant strikes and averages 1.92 takedowns.
Van just fought and will be very fresh. Silva could surprise with a knockout finish, but Van via decision is the better play here.
Sporting News prediction: Van via unanimous decision
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Brendson Ribeiro; Light Heavyweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Azamat Murzakanov is the -590 favorite, while Brendson Ribeiro is the +390 underdog.
Including a run on Dana White’s Contender Series, Murzakanov is 5-0 in the octagon. “The Professional,” coming off a failed drug test, lands 4.72 significant strikes per minute and has a 56% strike accuracy mark. Ribeiro lands 3.34 significant strikes and averages 1.07 takedowns.
Despite his hiccups, Murzakanov is a dangerous fighter with power. If the failed tests and suspensions haven’t affected his ability, Murzakanov should make a point against Ribeiro.
Sporting News prediction: Murzakanov via KO (round one)
Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta; Heavyweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Serghei Spivac is the -140 favorite, while Waldo Cortes-Acosta is the +110 underdog.
Spivac, 2-2 in his last four fights, lands 3.49 significant strikes and averages 4.56 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Cortes-Acosta, on a four-fight win streak, lands 5.76 significant strikes and averages 0.49 takedowns landed.
MORE: Complete MMA schedule for 2025
Spivac has shown signs of brilliance, but mistakes have cost him dearly. Cortes-Acosta has impressed following a run on Dana White’s Contender Series, taking out former champions and promising stars. Both are ranked at heavyweight, but the eleventh-ranked Cortes-Acosta might be able to sneak in a win.
Sporting News prediction: Cortes-Acosta via unanimous decision
Khaos Williams vs. Andreas Gustafsson; Welterweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Khaos Williams is the -200 favorite, while Andreas Gustafsson is the +154 underdog.
Williams is coming off a loss where he submitted to the D’Arce Choke. It was a minor hiccup, as Williams has a 60% takedown defense mark. He also lands 5.36 significant strikes per minute. Andreas Gustafsson lands 4.56 significant strikes and 3.60 takedowns in the octagon. The Dana White’s Contender Series alum comes into the fight as a short-notice replacement.
Several of Gustafsson’s fights have fallen through, and he is hungry. Williams has never lost two straight fights, but Gustafsson, a knockout artist, could be the one to break that streak.
Sporting News prediction: Gustafsson via TKO (round two)
Ariane da Silva vs. Wang Cong; Flyweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Wang Cong is the -590 favorite, while Ariane da Silva is the +390 underdog.
Wang lands 6.38 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.61 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. “The Joker” landed 103 significant strikes against Bruna Brasil. da Silva is on a two-fight losing streak, coming off a D’Arce Choke loss. She lands 4.04 significant strikes and has a strike accuracy mark of 41%.
da Silva is susceptible to the takedown, something Wang can take advantage of. However, the kickboxer’s best bet may be to keep it on the feet and tire da Silva out.
Sporting News prediction: Wang via unanimous decision
Jeka Saragih vs. Joo Sang Yoo; Featherweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Joo Sang Yoo is the -500 favorite, while Jeka Saragih is the +340 underdog.
MORE: Warrant issued for arrest of UFC legend
Joo Sang Yoo has won two of his last three fights via knockout and is perfect in his young career. Losing the Road to UFC Season 1 Tournament, Saragih lands 2.73 significant strikes per minute and has landed 2.21 takedowns per 15 minutes. He hasn’t quite impressed as of late and is susceptible to getting caught, making him a solid target for Joo Sang Yoo.
Sporting News prediction: Joo Sang Yoo via TKO (round two)
Quillan Salkilld vs. Yanal Ashmouz; Lightweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Quillan Salkilld is the -480 favorite, while Yanal Ashmouz is the +330 underdog.
Salkilld lands 5.68 significant strikes per minute and has averaged 8.81 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. The Dana White’s Contender Series alum’s first foray in the octagon lasted 19 seconds. Ashmouz lands 2.94 significant strikes and averages 4.80 takedowns. His last fight was the first in a year for him.
Will ring rust play a factor in the fight? Salkilld has proven to be a dangerous commodity coming off a DWCS appearance. He’ll get another chance to continue to showcase what he can do.
Sporting News prediction: Salkilld via KO (round one)
MarQuel Mederos vs. Mark Choinski; Lightweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, MarQuel Mederos is the -245 favorite, while Mark Choinski is the +186 underdog.
In the octagon, Mederos has landed 3.75 significant strikes per minute and has a 50% strike accuracy mark. Choinski has five wins via submission. “The Shark” submitted two fighters in 2024 and one in March, making the three-time All-American Division III wrestler a very fresh fighter.
Mederos should go for power shots early. Can he avoid Choinski’s ground game? Given Choinski’s status, he should be ready to go and cause an upset.
Sporting News prediction: Choinski via submission (round one)
Read the full article here
