The UFC featherweight title bout between Max Holloway and Ilia Topuria is arguably the biggest UFC fight of the year.
The lineage of this belt is well-documented as having the highest pedigree; only all-time greats like Jose Aldo, Conor McGregor, Alexander Volkanovski, and the Blessed One, Max Holloway himself, have held 145-lb gold with the UFC.
Now, it may be Ilia Topuria’s time to go on a legendary run which could cement him as one of the GOATs. Yet in his way stands Holloway, the man who has both landed and absorbed the most strikes in UFC history.
Holloway brings something to the table Topuria has never seen before. While Alexander ‘the Great’ could not stand toe to toe with the Spaniard in the pocket, Max can. He may not match Topuria or even Volkanovski in one-punch power, but his adamantium chin allows him to eat a shot to give one back.
If Volk had done that, he would have seen darkness much quicker than he did. The fact that Ilia will likely have to go five hard rounds with Holloway is going to make this the biggest test of his career. Topuria flagged at times in past fights, notably in his debut vs Youssef Zalal. However, he remained in control for the entire duration of his only five-round fight, in which he beat Josh Emmett from pillar to post.
Not only will Holloway be there for five rounds unless his chin cracks for the first time, but he has the boxing to go toe-to-toe with Ilia, he works the body which can further weaken Topuria, and he sets a higher pace than any fighter in UFC history. Going into all of Max’s records would have us here all day long.
Suffice to say, ‘Blessed’ will be no cakewalk for ‘El Matador,’ despite the champ’s sharp boxing, proven toughness, and elite submission game. If Topuria does choose to grapple perhaps he will find an easier path to victory — though Max has never been easy to take down — but he has put most of his energy into striking the last few years, even though when he joined the UFC he had only ever won by submission.
It is a minor miracle how developed his boxing has become in so short a time; Topuria has an educated jab, good pressure footwork, and mixes up his targets well. However, against a fighter with four times as many UFC fights who has been in the cage with the best in the world many times before, will striking holes become apparent in the champ’s game?
After all, flaws often become apparent only under heavy fire, and Ilia never had to deal with anything that made him uncomfortable in his prior UFC outings. Holloway can fight while moving forwards and backwards equally well, and though he is not a pure pressure fighter like the champion, his relentless pace works to expose holes just like pressure does.
Although Topuria’s pressure worked against Emmett and Volkanovski, those were two fighters happy to concede the back foot and circle the Octagon, looking to pick their spots. Max, on the other hand, will not do so. Even if he is forced back at times, other times he will doubtless stride forward with long combinations, or even just a jab to the body.
Holloway truly does it all in there, and until I have seen Ilia Topuria face the full gamut of what MMA has to offer, I cannot pick him to beat one of the five best fighters of all time, Max ‘Blessed’ Holloway.
I think they will go to war early on, but Topuria falls apart later in the fight from the full force of a gale he will not be able to withstand in Abu Dhabi on Saturday.
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