U.S. Open men’s singles predictions: Updated tennis odds, best bets and more for 2026 Grand Slam

The 2026 U.S. Open men’s draw feels very different this year. One of tennis’ biggest names is missing, and another is entering with serious questions.

World No. 1 Jannik Sinner is out with a right knee injury, removing the 2024 champion and one of the clear favorites from the field. Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is back, but he has not played a competitive match in more than four months while recovering from a wrist injury.

That uncertainty creates an opportunity for the rest of the field, starting with Alexander Zverev. The German finally broke through for his first Grand Slam title at the French Open and now heads to New York with a legitimate chance to add another major.

Arthur Fils is also coming off a breakthrough win in Cincinnati, while Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton will try to end the long Grand Slam drought for American men. With Sinner gone and Alcaraz’s form difficult to project, there may be more value on the U.S. Open futures board than we normally see at a Grand Slam. New users can place a $5 bet on this tournament with DraftKings and unlock $200 in bonus bets instantly.

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U.S. Open men’s singles prediction

Alexander Zverev is my pick to win the U.S. Open because the draw gives him a legitimate path to the final without having to go through Carlos Alcaraz. His serve and ability to handle long best-of-five matches make him difficult to beat on hard courts, and his side of the bracket is much cleaner than Alcaraz’s. At +300, Zverev has the combination of form, draw and price I want at the top of the board.

US Open men’s singles odds

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. To reach final and to reach semifinal odds will be added once they’re offered.

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U.S. Open men’s singles best bets

Best bet overall

Best Bet

Zverev at +300 is my favorite outright bet because this draw sets up about as well as he could have hoped. Sinner is out with a knee injury, while Alcaraz landed in the opposite half of the bracket.

That means Zverev cannot see Alcaraz until the final, and his quarter is headlined by players such as Alex de Minaur, Lorenzo Musetti, Casper Ruud and Rafael Jodar. There are dangerous players in that group, but nobody I would put in the same tier as Zverev over five sets.

The recent hard-court results have not been flattering, but I am not putting too much weight on a couple of losses in Montreal and Cincinnati. Zverev won the French Open earlier this season and followed it by reaching the Wimbledon final, so he has already proven he can consistently navigate a Grand Slam draw in 2026. His serve remains one of the biggest weapons in the field, and his ability to grind through long matches becomes even more valuable in a best-of-five format.

At +300, the price implies roughly a 25% chance of winning the tournament. With Sinner removed from the equation and Alcaraz safely on the other side of the draw, I think Zverev’s actual chances are better than that.

Best value bet

Best bet

Arthur Fils at +1200 had so much value it’s wild. He enters New York in the best form of his career after winning Cincinnati, his first Masters 1000 title. That run included wins over Jiri Lehecka, Alex de Minaur, Flavio Cobolli and Frances Tiafoe, with Fils dropping just one set over his final five matches. He also reached the Montreal quarterfinals earlier this month; his hardcourt form is impressive.

The draw isn’t exactly what we want, but that’s also why the price is +1200. Fils opens against Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has struggled against top competition on hard courts this summer, and Carlos Alcaraz could be waiting in the fourth round.

Normally that would be enough to scare me away, but Alcaraz is returning from a four-month wrist injury and has not played a regular singles tournament since April. If there is ever a time to catch him before he completely finds his rhythm, it could be during the first week in New York.

Fils has the power, movement, and serve to beat elite players on this surface, and Cincinnati showed he can handle pressure deep into a major event. He is only 22, but this kid is a baller. We just watched him beat several legitimate US Open contenders in consecutive matches. If he gets through Alcaraz, +1200 is going to look like an enormous number.

Best longshot

Alex de Minaur at +6000 is my favorite long shot because the price and draw give us plenty to work with. He opens against a qualifier or lucky loser, then gets the winner of Jan Choinski and Botic van de Zandschulp. His third-round section includes Zizou Bergs, Camilo Ugo Carabelli, Jesper de Jong and another qualifier, so there is a very realistic path to the second week without having to beat another top contender.

The draw becomes tougher from there, with Casper Ruud or Rafael Jodar potentially waiting in the fourth round and Alexander Zverev the projected quarterfinal opponent. I can live with that at 60/1.

De Minaur is essentially being given a path to the quarterfinals without having to pull off a massive upset. The official draw has Zverev and De Minaur projected to meet in the quarters, while Alcaraz, Djokovic, Medvedev and Shelton are all in the opposite half.

The form is good enough for me, too. De Minaur reached a career-high No. 5 this summer and already won Rotterdam earlier this season. More importantly for the US Open, hard courts have consistently been his best surface. He led the ATP with 43 hard-court wins in 2025 and has continued to play winning tennis on the surface this year. He reached the fourth round in Cincinnati before losing to eventual champion Arthur Fils, so I am not worried about his preparation entering New York.

At +6000, this feels a big enough price to take a chance on.

Favorite to fade

Carlos Alcaraz is still the most talented player in the field, but +250 is an extremely short price for someone returning from the longest injury layoff of his career. Alcaraz has not played a singles match since April 14 after suffering a right wrist injury in Barcelona. The issue ended up being much more significant than initially expected, forcing him to miss Madrid, Rome, the French Open, Queen’s, Wimbledon, Montreal and Cincinnati. He has essentially gone nearly five months without playing a normal tournament match.

The wrist itself is my biggest concern. Alcaraz relies so heavily on his forehand to dictate points, create extreme angles and turn defense into offense. Even if he is medically cleared, there is a difference between hitting freely in practice and trusting that wrist through four or five hours of Grand Slam tennis. He did get some competitive reps during US Open mixed doubles, but the shortened format is nothing close to the physical and mental demands of seven best-of-five singles matches.

The draw does not give him much time to ease into things either. Alcaraz opens against Roman Safiullin and could eventually run into Arthur Fils or Ben Shelton in the quarterfinals, followed by Novak Djokovic or Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals. That is a difficult path for anyone, much less a player returning from a lengthy wrist injury with almost no singles preparation.

Alcaraz could absolutely win this tournament, but at +250 we are being asked to pay a premium for his name and ceiling while taking on considerably more injury and conditioning risk than usual. I would rather fade him at that number and back players with healthier preparation and cleaner paths through the draw.

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