Here’s what’s happening in NASCAR with the Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway in the rearview and Saturday’s Bristol Night Race up next (7:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
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1. Here comes Hendrick — Larson to lead charge back against Toyota
The start of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs has been all Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing so far, but that may be about to change in this weekend’s Round of 16 cutoff race at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Toyota drivers enter this weekend‘s Round of 16 cutoff race as the unquestioned frontrunners of the playoffs thus far, with Joe Gibbs Racing taking the air out of the room as Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin suffocated the field in the opening two races, and 23XI‘s duo heads into Saturday with plenty of cushion to feel safe.
At the same time, Kyle Larson enters Bristol Motor Speedway as the undisputed king of the concrete colosseum in the Next Gen era, with numbers that are truly extraordinary. The 2021 champ owns three Bristol wins in his last seven starts, including two in a row with this race last year and again earlier this season. More impressive still, Larson led 873 laps in those two — nearly 90% of all possible laps — a feat that places him among the most dominant short-track performers in NASCAR history.
The 1,762 laps Larson has led at Bristol represent his highest total at any track by a margin of 712, and the 462 laps led in the most recent night race there marked the most ever by a Hendrick Motorsports driver in a single Cup race, cementing his status as the organization‘s short-track ace. Though his summer didn‘t quite go as planned, if it was all going to turn around for the California native on his quest for title No. 2, this is the spot.
RELATED: Bristol entry list | Full weekend schedule
As dominant as Toyota has looked through two races, it‘s hard not to get the sense that No. 5 is about to wash all that away and position himself as the potential title favorite as the Round of 12 takes shape with another strong-arming of the field under the lights.
“Yeah, I mean, it would be great to have a day like the last two times there where we lead a bunch of laps and win the race,” Larson reflected after Gateway. “You can never expect that. Everybody is always getting better. We have to try to go up there and execute like we did … qualify up front. You just hope the race will play out better in our favor. We can just build on it.”
Also worth noting — Larson‘s brilliance reflects a broader Hendrick resurgence at Bristol, as other powerhouse organizations like Team Penske have struggled to make it happen there in the past decade. Chase Elliott has registered top-10 finishes in more than half of his Bristol starts (nine of 16) and has led 444 laps of his own. Alex Bowman, desperately in need of the best possible finish he can muster this weekend, earned pole positions for each of the last two Bristol races, while William Byron has yet to lead a lap there but owns four top 10s in the last six.
Apart from any self-induced mishaps, Toyota does remain Hendrick‘s biggest hurdle this weekend. The manufacturer has orchestrated a masterclass in postseason racing thus far, winning both races and leading 515 of 607 laps run, securing a landmark 200th victory over the weekend as Hamlin picked up his series-best fifth 2025 win. Briscoe‘s display of dominance at Darlington also showcased Toyota‘s depth beyond established veterans after Kyle Busch moved on a few years ago and Martin Truex Jr. retired after last year, as he and Bubba Wallace, who has a healthy cushion entering Bristol, look like realistic Championship 4 contenders for the first time in their careers.
Defending champion Joey Logano acknowledged the gap between manufacturers so far candidly after Gateway.
“They‘re ridiculously fast. They‘ve got a lot of grip, and they‘ve got a lot of horsepower. We‘ve got a lot of work to do to catch up.”
Bristol‘s concrete surface and track treatment, courtesy of NASCAR — not to mention a new right-side tire — provide consistent grip and racing characteristics that reward both raw speed and strategic positioning. This could lead to Toyota further maximizing exactly what Logano mentioned, or it could open the door for Larson and others to catch up and make it look like anybody‘s ballgame again.
If Toyota is able to maintain its pace at Bristol, the championship is clearly in its grasp. And tightening.
2. Is a major surprise elimination coming at Bristol?
Reigning champion Joey Logano’s title defense has not been a particularly strong one, and No. 22 faces the very realistic threat of elimination Saturday night at Bristol. Will he, or other big players facing the cut, rise to the occasion at “The Last Great Colosseum?”
As laid out above, there‘s going to be plenty of warranted focus on Larson and Toyota (and in particular Hamlin) this weekend.
There is, however, one potential majorly dramatic subplot to focus on Saturday night — the defending champion may not make it out of the first round.
Joey Logano‘s startling struggles this year are well past the point of “hey, they‘ll get it together in time for the playoffs.” Here we are on the verge of the first cutoff race inside the playoffs, and No. 22 has just eight top 10s on the year, hasn‘t felt close to winning a race since the spring, and now faces elimination, needing to maintain a scant 21-point cushion to the bubble at a mediocre-at-best track for him.
Sure, he‘s a two-time Bristol winner, but both of those came a decade ago or more, and Logano arrives averaging a 27th-place finish in five Next Gen races, placing 22nd or worse each time. That skid contrasts sharply with his history of clutch performances and underscores Team Penske‘s challenges adapting to Bristol with this car. Short of everything going perfectly, Logano faces the real threat of elimination. One ill-timed pit miscue or mechanical fault could end his championship bid, transforming what should have been another strong run (albeit in an odd year) into one of this season‘s biggest upsets.
By contrast, Christopher Bell, also far off his early-season pace to the point the mild-mannered Oklahoman is calling out his team after seventh-place finishes, epitomizes reliability at Bristol and should be a lock to advance and continue his trek toward title No. 1. He has never finished outside the top 10 at this track in the Next Gen and ranks third among active drivers in laps led at the half-mile oval. Bell‘s consistent stage results, with a top 10 in every stage over the last six races, reflect the precision that Bristol demands and few can master.
Below the cutline, however, desperation intensifies.
Alex Bowman, who has as many Bristol finishes over the past eight races inside the top 10 as finishes outside the top 30, sits 35 points short after pit-road penalties and mechanical failures have hampered his campaign. He needs to have the race of his life, as only a victory or a flawless points day will salvage his season.
Shane van Gisbergen, 15 points shy, confronts his first genuine short-track challenge; his road-course prowess offers little guidance on Bristol‘s high banks, and his lone start here ended in a 38th-place DNF. Add the pressure of playoff elimination and we‘ll get to really test SVG‘s mettle this weekend.
Josh Berry, 45 points adrift, represents the ultimate underdog of the race, a long shot among long shots. Accidents in both playoff races have painted him into a corner, yet Wood Brothers Racing‘s history of strong short-track showings provides a sliver of hope if he can avoid early wrecks.
Should Logano stumble, any one of these bubble drivers could vault into the Round of 12 without taking the checkered flag. Don‘t be quick to rule out a pop-off win from Ross Chastain or Austin Dillon — the most recent short-track winner — if the in-race points situation gets jumbled and some of the sport‘s most aggressive drivers need to muscle up at the end.
Bristol is an equalizer to a degree, and this playoff field for the Round of 12 is anything but solidified. Chris Buescher‘s 2022 breakthrough to end a 223-race winless streak, for example, illustrates how precise timing and opportunism can sometimes override raw speed at one of the sport‘s most unique venues.
The only question is who wants it the most?
3. Kyle Petty: Is Ryan Blaney too nice to drive a race car?
Kyle Petty breaks down whether Ryan Blaney is ‘too nice’ after his recent run-in with Kyle Larson at World Wide Technology Raceway.
4. Will a first-time short-track winner advance at Bristol?
Five of the six lowest-ranked drivers remaining in the playoffs have never won at a short track before, and none of them have won at Bristol, in particular. Will one of them change that on Saturday night? (Credit: Racing Insights)
| Driver | Wins | Last |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | 16 | Bristol 4/19 |
| Denny Hamlin | 15 | Martinsville 3/25 |
| Brad Keselowski | 7 | Richmond 9/20 |
| Kyle Larson | 6 | Bristol 4/25 |
| Joey Logano | 5 | Martinsville 10/18 |
| Ryan Blaney | 3 | Martinsville 11/24 |
| William Byron | 3 | Iowa 8/25 |
| Alex Bowman | 2 | Martinsville 10/21 |
| Chris Buescher | 2 | Richmond 7/23 |
| Austin Dillon | 2 | Richmond 9/25 |
| Chase Elliott | 1 | Martinsville 11/20 |
| Christopher Bell | 1 | Martinsville 10/22 |
5. Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage
Paint Scheme Preview: 2025 Bristol Motor Speedway playoff weekend
Power Rankings: Bubba Wallace enters Championship 4 conversation after hot start
Gateway victory primes Hamlin for personal milestone of 60th Cup win
Kyle Petty: Denny Hamlin ‘may be the last driver that hits 60‘ wins
Some smooth, others bumpy: Gateway nets mixed results for Hendrick Motorsports
Radioactive: Hear what Blaney said after getting spun out
‘Their heart goes to a different place‘: Who‘s rising in the playoffs
Playoff Pulse: Title contenders rise, fall through Gateway melee
Goodyear to debut new, softer right-side tires for Bristol Night Race
NASCAR official on Trackhouse post-race actions: ‘We‘ll make it pretty clear to them moving forward‘
Christopher Bell unsatisfied with Gateway top 10: ‘We are underperforming‘
Larson tangles with Blaney at Gateway: ‘He should be upset‘
Denny Hamlin‘s late surge sews up fifth win of season, Round of 12 playoff spot
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