Turning Point: Data deep dive hidden trends from first 12 races of 2025

Here’s what’s happening in NASCAR with Kansas Speedway in the rearview and the 2025 NASCAR All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro Speedway (Sun., 8 p.m. ET, FS1) up next.

1. Data deep dive — hidden trends from the first 12 races of 205

In NASCAR, the numbers go deeper than just wins and laps led. NASCAR Insights has been keeping track of passer, defense, speed, restart and pit crew deep analytics this year. The season averages are producing some interesting insights.

So many things have happened since William Byron opened the season with a second straight Daytona 500 victory.

Christopher Bell won three straight races. Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin nearly matched it shortly thereafter. Josh Berry won a race before any of his Team Penske cohorts and has the No. 21 car looking like a factor. Kyle Larson is just on another planet right now, and looks like he’s about to enter a whole other universe, too.

It’s been an impactful open to 2025, with major narratives front and center. But what does the story within the story tell?

Let’s dig into the season-long advanced statistical averages, courtesy of NASCAR Insights, to see if we can uncover any trends lying under the surface that could become apparent in the next third of the season and beyond.

— Cup Series champion Brad Keselowski, mired in one of his most frustrating seasons to date, is 20th or worse in every statistical average so far … except he’s seventh in Defense Rating, which “evaluates a driver’s ability to hold their position when under pressure, assessing their effectiveness in fending off faster cars.” Despite his frustrations and lack of speed, Keselowski is able to hang in there with the best of them; we’ve seen him find his way to the front this year, even despite all that. It’s likely his team finds speed gains at some point this season and that, combined with his cool-headedness, could perhaps lead to a win.

— Cole Custer’s No. 41 Haas Factory Team pit crew ranks 13th, while Custer is outside the top 30 in everything else. That’s still a solid backbone, and the team — which is probably still adjusting from a massive transition — should only find ways to go faster from here as Custer continues to reacclimate to the Cup Series. Not saying a Custer playoff appearance is in the crystal ball, but I’d be surprised to see this team not find some better results over the summer and build some momentum for 2026.

— Noah Gragson is 11th in restarts and 17th in defense to rank in the top half of the field there, and he’s doing it with the 28th-best speed and 29th-best passer rating. It stands to reason that if the No. 4 Front Row Motorsports Ford gains in the speed area, Gragson could be fighting for consistent top 15s at the very least and perhaps a win, given his restart ability in particular.

— On the flip side, Las Vegas winner Josh Berry is getting eaten up on restarts (25th) despite being in the top 15 in passing, speed and defense. This is not necessarily unexpected from a sophomore in the Cup Series, and, if it’s something he’s presumably able to improve upon, he could round into a deep-in-the-playoffs kind of driver.

— Ryan Blaney’s No. 12 Ford has been a bullet in 2025 — as evidenced by his first-place rating in both passing and speed — but he ranks outside the top 10 in defense … which doesn’t seem ideal when a driver has the clear fastest car. On a perhaps related note, Blaney is the only winless driver among the four associated with Team Penske. (For now.)

— Spire Motorsports has taken an obvious leap forward in 2025, seemingly in the mix with at least one of its drivers on a weekly basis. So, it’s quite surprising that Carson Hocevar’s P14 rating in passing is the highest that any Spire driver is ranked in any category. Either their early 2025 returns are a fluke or this trio is about to break out in a big way, should any speed gains be found.

— Ryan Preece has also taken a significant leap this year in his first season with RFK Racing, and he appears to be the real deal. Preece and the No. 60 team were on it at Kansas, but he’s also ranked fifth in passing for year. For context — teammates Keselowski and Chris Buescher, both of whom expected to make the playoffs when cars rolled into Daytona, rank 25th and 22nd, respectively.

MORE: NASCAR Insights: Ryan Preece continues superb season at Kansas

— Similarly to Custer’s No. 41 group, JGR’s Ty Gibbs (2nd) and Trackhouse Racing’s Daniel Suárez (7th) are bolstered by strong pit crews, but are struggling across the board otherwise, averaging 21.75 and 21.25 in the other categories, respectively. Gibbs is still a developing Cup driver and Trackhouse has undergone some internal transitions. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that either picks things up the rest of the way and strikes while the iron is hot for a win after being put in a favorable position by their pit crews.

— And finally … why the heck hasn’t Chase Elliott won since April 2024, when his teammates seem to be able to pour it on at will lately? Restarts, restarts, restarts. Elliott’s peripherals on all the other categories are mostly in line with them, but his restart ability in 2025 thus far (16th) pales in comparison to William Byron (1st) and Kyle Larson (2nd). Elliott is a well-established NASCAR superstar — a Cup champion, after all — and has an average ranking of 5.0 between passing, speed and defense. At some point he’s going to just flat-out dominate and win a race, restarts be damned.

The All-Star Race, with no points up for grabs and a $1 million check waiting in Victory Lane for the winner, is supposed to be a pressure-free cash scramble, but is there perhaps a little more riding on it?

The exhibition event has turned into a true showing of strength for the stars of the sport, with each of the last nine races won by Cup Series champions. The race and the Bill France Cup feel intimately tied together, with three of the past five champions also having won the race earlier in the season.

With only seven drivers having won so far this year and several playoff-hopeful drivers staring down the notion of being in “must-win” territory (and some already there), will we see a driver celebrate in North Wilkesboro and perhaps set their season on a new trajectory?

Nobody needs it more than Keselowski, and an All-Star victory would cross off one of his few remaining boxes in a Hall-of-Fame-worthy career. RFK‘s co-owner/driver has finished second three times in the race, tied with Sterling Marlin and Ken Schrader for most runner-up trophies without a win. We‘ve seen him run up front lately (before things seem to always crumble for one reason or another), but it‘s quite possible the 2012 champ puts it all together this weekend. And lest we forget — Carl Edwards nearly won a title for Roush the year of his only All-Star win in 2011.

It‘s not just Keselowski, though. There are plenty of drivers still looking for a win that expected to have one by now, and an All-Star Race triumph could absolutely be a launching pad for whoever wins it. Sixteen times in the history of the race it was the winner‘s first victory of the season, and only three times did those winners not go on to win an actual points race in the remainder of the year.

On the opposite end of the spectrum you may even find it likely that Larson, in what is setting up to be a torrid month of May, comes to North Wilkesboro and stomps his way to a record-tying fourth win. His trajectory, in that case, isn‘t altered — it‘s solidified.

Larson has all but turned this race into a personal side hustle, with all three of his wins coming in the last six years, tying Dale Earnhardt and Darrell Waltrip and trailing only Jimmie Johnson‘s four.

That‘s a combined 18 Cup Series championships right there, and if Larson adds another All-Star win on Sunday?

A 19th feels inevitable.

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