After Gonzaga thrashed Kansas 89-68 in the second round of the NCAA Tournament last March, Jayhawks coach Bill Self opened some eyes when he admitted he had been looking ahead to next season for the previous month. But that shouldn’t come as a surprise to anybody. Coaches throughout the country are doing the same thing right now. Conference play has a way of illuminating the flaws that have to be addressed in roster-building.
Remember, the 2025 transfer portal cycle opens on March 24. That date is less than five weeks away and preparations are already being made by staffs.
Let’s dive into some teams trending towards highly consequential decisions and the biggest moves that are being deciphered in war rooms across the country right now.
We’ll start where we began.
1. Mass changes imminent in Kansas
As the sample size grows and the losses swell, it’s growing increasingly clear that it’s almost impossible to build an elite offense in a new era of college basketball with a reluctant-to-shoot point guard, a 4-man who does not shoot 3s and a center who would prefer to bang in the paint.
Even for a revered offensive mastermind like Self.
Entering Tuesday’s road tilt against BYU, Kansas has just a 103.9 offensive rating with Dajuan Harris, KJ Adams and Hunter Dickinson on the floor together in Big 12 play. That ranks in the 21st percentile nationally, per CBB Analytics. One nonshooter is fine. UConn is proof that if you have three terrific spot-up snipers, you can get buckets with plenty of lineups that have two-non shooters. But three feels like a death sentence.
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Since Dec. 1, Kansas is a mediocre 10-8 with an offense that sits 68th in the country, per BartTorvik.com.
Harris, Dickinson and Adams aren’t solely responsible for all of this. Kansas’ transfer-portal influx of wings was supposed to help cover up some warts. AJ Storr has been as big of a disappointment as anyone from the 2024 portal cycle. The best version of KU certainly includes a good Rylan Griffen, but miscues (on both ends) have made it hard for Self to trust him as a 30-minute-per-game player. Zeke Mayo has been great but he’s surrounded by three limited shooters which shrinks the margin of error offensively.
Regardless of what happens down the stretch, mass changes feel imminent at Kansas. There’s a real world where Self has to replace eight of its top nine players.
At this rate, change will be good. Five-star Darryn Peterson will provide the jolt of NBA talent to a backcourt that this current roster does not have and sorely misses. But retaining big man Flory Bidunga is quietly shaping up to be one of the biggest hinges of Kansas’ looming offseason plan. The freshman forward has major two-way enforcer vibes that Kansas will certainly need, and dipping into the big man market in the portal can be a high-cost, low-reward proposition. Griffen and Storr can both return to Lawrence next year, but Bidunga should be the No. 1 priority for Self to get back.
Kansas travels to BYU Tuesday for a road tilt before Saturday’s Big 12 clash against Oklahoma State (4 p.m. ET on CBS and streaming on CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App and Paramount+ with Showtime).
2. UNC’s dilemma
UNC’s season is sputtering away after a series of miscalculations in the transfer portal, and these roster flaws have to get fixed in a jiffy. The frontcourt makeover will be important, but there’s a real dilemma starting to emerge in the backcourt.
This Elliot Cadeau-Seth Trimble combination just is not working.
UNC has just a +5 net rating with Cadeau and Trimble on the floor together in ACC play, and the shooting concerns have reared their ugly head again. Cadeau is a smidge over 30% for the season on just 2.4 attempts. Trimble is just 5-for-30 from 3-point range in ACC play.
Their games just clash a bit too much as drive-first guards who need to be surrounded by off-ball shot-makers to be fully optimized. R.J. Davis is out of eligibility and while Ian Jackson has had a topsy-turvy freshman season, the pops are still enough to likely be a real first-round talent. The dominoes in the UNC backcourt start and end with Cadeau and Trimble.
At this rate, it’d be a surprise if both are back in Chapel Hill next season.
We’ll see if short-handed West Virginia can coax an NCAA Tournament appearance down the stretch, but regardless, Darian DeVries should head into the 2025 portal cycle with one heckuva sell for a point guard. Javon Small has been tremendous and looks every bit the part of an All-American and a Big 12 Player of the Year frontrunner.
With Tucker DeVries slated to return after a medical redshirt and loads of competent role players with eligibility like Amani Hansberry and Jonathan Powell, West Virginia will have the table set for a point guard to come in and be successful.
It should be able to shoot high.
4. Baylor’s offseason priority
VJ Edgecombe is going to be an NBA Draft lottery pick and Norchad Omier, Jeremy Roach and Jayden Nunn are all out of eligibility. That’s four of Baylor’s top eight players who are walking out of the door before we start talking about the other layer of attrition that every team will face.
Building around Rob Wright should be the top focus for Scott Drew. The freshman initiator point guard has shown excellent flashes as a pick-and-roll maestro. Baylor should get his lob threat back (center Josh Ojianwuna), but the Bears will need to make sure Wright isn’t going anywhere while also hitting the portal for a big-time off-ball guard who can space the floor and knock down the shots that Wright can create so effortlessly.
5. All eyes on Georgetown’s Thomas Sorber
Georgetown has not had the breakthrough season in Year 2 under Ed Cooley but real strides towards competence have been made. The Hoyas’ sole focus will be on Thomas Sorber’s stay-or-go decision. There’s a real world where Cooley has three starters back: shooting guard Jayden Epps, forward Drew Fielder and point guard Malik Mack. Getting a second year out of Sorber would set expectations very high for Georgetown in 2025-26, but it will not be easy. Sorber has put together one-and-done tape, but the 2025 NBA Draft is teeming with intriguing 5s.
6. What’s next in Iowa City?
There are a ton of balls up in the air in Iowa. The Hawkeyes have quickly sunk out of the race for an at-large bid, and the direction of the program is quickly reaching a critical stage. Will Fran McCaffery return? If so, will he be equipped with the resources to retain key studs like Josh Dix and Owen Freeman?
High-major programs everywhere will be keeping a close eye on the matriculations in Iowa City over the next month. The fallout will loom large.
7. Good defense despite bad 3-point luck
- Duke’s defense ranks 16th-best since Jan. 1, despite opponents shooting 35% from 3-point range. Good luck getting buckets at the rim against this crew.
- Houston opponents are shooting over 34% from 3-point range since Jan. 1, and the Cougars still have the fourth-best defense in the country since that point.
8. Bad defense despite good 3-point luck
- USC’s defense rates outside the top-100 since New Year’s despite its opponents showing just 30% from downtown. The interior defensive problems just aren’t going away.
- SMU’s defense rates 58th nationally despite opponents shooting just 31% from 3-point range since Jan. 1.
9. Good offense despite bad 3-point luck
- Illinois has the 14th-best offense in the country since New Year’s despite shooting 28.9% from 3-point range. That ranks 345th nationally.
- Arizona has a top-25 offense even though it is shooting just 31% from beyond the arc in the last 14 games.
- Mississippi State and Michigan State both have offenses hovering near the top-30 since Jan. 1, despite shooting 28.5% and 29.4% from 3-point range, respectively.
10. Bad offense despite good 3-point luck
- Boston College is shooting over 38% from long-range since Jan. 1, but it is 2-10 with an offense that rates outside the top 190 nationally.
- Notre Dame is shooting a smidge under 37% from 3-point range in its last dozen games, but its offense is just No. 87.
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