To Ralphy, or Not to Ralphy: That is the Question

To sleep, aye, perchance to dream of a World Series title, there’s the rub.

Since the August 3rd trade deadline, Cleveland has made a solid progression as an offense. They went from the 27th-ranked offense in MLB with a 92 wRC+ and a slashline of .231/.310/.370 to the tenth-ranked offense in MLB at 103 wRC+ with a slashline of .263/.340/.374. You can see, of course, the issue with the growth; the Guardians’ slugging percentage has barely moved as they remain one of the worst teams in MLB at hitting home runs (29th-ranked in homers for the season and for the month of August so far).

Far be it from me to look a gift horse in the mouth: I am very happy with the advancements the team made at the deadline acquiring Nathaniel Lowe and Jo Adell, as well as promoting Angel Genao. I am thrilled that Steven Kwan has become the third best hitter in baseball over the past two months and optimistic about Jose Ramirez’s chances of regaining consistent doubles power (at least) as his surgically-repaired hand continues to gain strength. Also, Chase DeLauter and Travis Bazzana SHOULD find their way to a few more homers as they continue to adjust to the league in their rookie seasons (provided DeLauter can remain healthy).

But, there’s little doubt the Guardians could use some more pop in their lineup if they really want to make a run to end the season and, then, to aim for a pennant. Good news – the Columbus Clippers lead all of minor league baseball in home runs. Yes, Columbus plays in a bandbox. Yes, Triple-A pitching is horrible. But, there are some legitimate power threats on the Guardians’ Triple-A team. Should one or more of these sluggers be added to the major league team – perhaps in time for tomorrow’s homestand against the Royals?

The most attractive candidates are:

Ralphy Velazquez, 21 years old, LHH, 1B/LF – 133 wRC+, .275 ISO, .970 OPS vs. RHP/.840 OPS vs. LHP, .1.061 OPS at Columbus, .800 OPS away.

Cooper Ingle, 24 years old, LHH, C/LF/DH – 154 wRC+, .244 ISO, 1.021 vs. RHP/.534 OPS vs. LHP, 1.009 OPS at Columbus/.854 OPS away

Kody Huff, 25 years old, RHH, C/1B – 130 wRC+, .247 ISO, .893 OPS vs. RHP/.842 vs. LHP, .896 at Columbus/868 away.

Milan Tolentino, 24 years old, LHH, UIF – 108 wRC+, .231 ISO, .811 OPS vs. RHP/.776 vs. LHP, .780 at Columbus/.826 OPS away

I think it’s probably helpful to look at how these players have been handling specific pitches over the past two months as they’ve been developing. So, here’s their wOBA/xwOBA vs. all fastballs since 7/1:

Velazquez: .544/.447
Ingle: .504/.407
Huff: .312/.272
Tolentino: .329/.349

And wOBA/xwOBA vs. breaking balls over the same time period:

Velazquez: .274/.341
Ingle: .313/.296
Huff: .560/.446
Tolentino: .343/.324

Finally, wOBA/xwOBA vs. offspeed pitches during the same time period:

Velazquez: .319/.310
Ingle: .301/.303
Huff: .427/.352
Tolentino: .443/.265

We have discussed the dilemma for the Guardians regarding Ralphy. If they call him up, they will miss out on his continued development in 2027 if there is a lockout that costs them major league games. Certainly, Chris Antonetti is far more qualified than I am to judge on how likely that outcome should be considered. I do not believe, in any case, it is a compelling argument against calling Velazquez up IF he can help the team. And, I think, looking at the numbers above, there is a decent chance Ralphy could help the team… BUT he will need consistent, almost daily, at-bats and they should be prepared for the usual adjustment period. Given DeLauter’s hamstring troubles, one would have to assume Chase will mostly be limited to the DH role, meaning Ralphy will have to be comfortable playing left field with Kwan in center and Adell in right field. Ralphy would then replace either Angel Martinez or Petey Halpin, depending on team’s comfort level with Martinez in centerfield.

Is Velazquez ready for full-time left field reps? Only the team can hazard a guess on this. We know Cooper Ingle wasn’t ready on his call-up. Is the team capable of enduring what will likely be a 3-weekish adjustment period for Velazquez to acclimate himself to big league pitching in hopes he will be ready to crush pitches in time for the end of the season/playoffs? We should be very excited about Ralphy’s numbers given his age at Triple-A. This is very likely to be a middle-of-the-order hitter when he is big league ready… but the chances are fairly slim that he is currently ready given his age. Now, there is a chance he is making the adjustments currently to demonstrate that he IS ready for the challenge, seeing breaking balls and offspeed well-enough to get challenge by the best versions of those pitches. But, this is no sure thing. Do you take the risk he may help now… or carefully do whatever you can to give him the best shot at being ready to help in 2027? That’s the quandry before the Guardians’ front office right now and I cannot say that I know the solution with any certainty.

As for the other options, Tolentino is a great depth option to have. Should (God-forbid) Brayan Rocchio, Bazzana or Genao get hurt, I think Tolentino should be the next player called up. He has potential to provide some pop (and a lot of strikeouts) while playing great defense. But, he is a utility player at best. Personally, I would like to see Kody Huff replace David Fry on the roster, but I can understand why the team continues to believe Fry has a better chance of providing something in that bench role. Huff’s struggles against fastballs are likely a fatal flaw if he doesn’t figure something out there, even though a role as a backup catcher role would still be within reach.

Finally, Ingle still shows the signs of being a hitter who needs the challenge of big league opportunities. The problems with him revolve around positional fit and platoon issues. The team clearly doesn’t trust that he’s a big league-quality catcher (and the position is ably manned by Patrick Bailey and Austin Hedges, currently) and we saw his defense in left-field earlier – alarming and undesirable! Has he improved enough in left field to earn another look? I cannot claim to know the answer, but I would guess it is probably “no.” I think Ingle might be a guy to get DH/LF/3rd Catcher reps during September call-ups, if anything, but I’m beginning to wonder if he ends up being a trade chip in the offseason.

The Guardians could look at acquiring Eugenio Suarez, recently put on waivers by the Reds. Suarez has a .248 ISO since July 1st with 11 homers. As a right-handed slugger, Suarez could probably play the Fry/Hoskins role (without being able to play outfield as Fry can) better than what we could hope Huff could play that role (again, without outfield abilities). I certainly would not oppose that move, but I’m also not desperate for the team to make it given the volatility of Suarez’s value due to his age and positional limitations.

It will be interesting to see what the Guardians do – or DON’T do – over the next few weeks to try to find some more slugging for their improved lineup. Is it hoping for natural development/positive regression? Is it a September call-up of a guy like Cooper Ingle? Is it finding a cast-off vet like Suarez, capable of providing a little punch? Or, is it something a little more daring in the much anticitpated call-up of Ralphy Velazquez? Stay tuned to find out.

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