Thoughts on the Penguins first day of free agency and where they go from here

In a lot of ways the the start of the Pittsburgh Penguins offseason has gone about as most of us had expected.

• No major long-term contracts.

• Targeting players in their mid-20s for trades that might still have a chance to break out in a bigger role.

• Cheap, short-term free agents that are either reclamation projects, or players whose value can be pumped up and flipped at the deadline for more future draft picks.

It’s pretty much what they have done in each of the past two summers under Kyle Dubas, and they have had some success with it.

Advertisement

Overall, the Penguins have added six players over the past week either through trade or free agency. We already talked about Kaedan Korczak on Wednesday, so let’s dig a little deeper into the other moves that have been made so far.

It would be low-key hilarious if somebody misunderstood the Penguins interest in “Robertson” as a desire for Jason when all along the Penguins were talking about Nick.

The Penguins PR staff leaned into it on Wednesday when their email announcing the trade was simply given the subject line of: “Penguins Acquire Robertson.”

Every other roster move was accompanied by an email that included the player’s full name, position and in the case of a trade, what team they were coming from.

Advertisement

But not this trade!

Maybe this is part of a plan to entice Jason to come here. I could see it. It would make sense and be logical. And I do believe they still have some degree of interest in Jason (as they should) and maybe even a chance of actually pulling it off.

Whether they do pull it off or not, I still like this trade in a vacuum and on its own merits.

Robertson fits the exact type of player the Penguins have been trying to acquire the past few years, and he is a pretty good version of it. A younger, mid-20s forward that has flashed NHL ability and production, has easily identifiable skill, has performed well in smaller roles, and might be in need of a bigger role to further test themselves and develop into something more.

Advertisement

He was one of Toronto’s most efficient goal-scorers on a per-minute basis the past three seasons, with his 1.07 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play trailing only Auston Matthew and William Nylander. That same level of production would compare favorably to the top players that have played for the Penguins. For the cost of a fourth-round pick, it is a worthy bet. If it helps convince one of the league’s top-15 players to want to come here, even better.

Declan Carlile

Instead of overpaying a 30-year-old Parker Wotherspoon in 2027 the Penguins would have been better off trying to find the next Parker Wotherspoon.

This seems like their attempt at it.

Advertisement

Nobody envisioned Wotherspoon, a little-used, organizational depth defenseman that signed a cheap, two-year contract in free agency in the summer of 2025, eventually becoming Erik Karlsson’s partner and an extremely effective player for a playoff team.

I’m not saying Carlile is going to repeat that success, nor am I saying he will be as good as Wotherspoon, but I am just saying to have an open mind on it, especially given the seasons they were coming off of when they joined the Penguins in free agency.

Just for comparison’s sake:

In terms of shot attempt share, expected goals against, expected goal share, goals against and goal differential they were virtually identical.

Advertisement

The one thing working more in Wotherspoon’s favor is that he faced the tougher minutes from a zone-start perspective.

The counter to that is that he was two years older, had more NHL experience going into the season, and consistently played alongside established NHL players. His most common partners were Brandon Carlo, Andrew Peeke, and Mason Lohrei.

Carlile was 25, had just three games of NHL experience going into the season, and spent most of his time playing next to the likes of Max Crozier, Steve Santini and Charle-Edouard D’Astous. They were all in the same boat of being mid-20s defenders getting their first taste of NHL action. And they did well. Carlile did well no matter who he was playing against.

Wotherspoon signed a two-year, $2 million deal.

Advertisement

Carlile signed a two-year, $3 million deal.

I do not know if it will work out the same way. But the player profiles are nearly identical, and the Penguins were able to turn last year’s guy into a younger player for the next few years at what could be a market-to-below-market contract (Korczak).

It is not hard to see the vision here.

Of all the moves made so far this is the one that kind of left me scratching my head a little.

van Riemsdyk is a good defensive player, and definitely comes at a cheap price. He also has some positional flexibility and can play on his off-side. But he’s another right-handed defenseman on a team that is very right-handed heavy on defense.

Advertisement

Does it set the stage for a potential Erik Karlsson or Kris Letang trade?

Would Harrison Brunicke be part of a hypothetical Jason Robertson trade package?

Are they going to play one (or both) of van Riemsdyk and Brunicke on their off-side?

This one creates a lot of questions, even if he is a useful player.

The Penguins wanted to improve their defensive zone play. This would definitely help do that even if it is a head-scratcher of a fit.

Well, it’s not hard to see the comparable here.

Say hello to your new Anthony Mantha.

If you just simply look at their 82-game averages they are nearly identical in their production.

Advertisement

• Andrei Kuzmenko: 26 goals, 29 assists, 55 points

• Anthony Mantha: 25 goals, 26 assists, 51 points

Kuzmenko is the smaller player, isn’t a particularly great skater and can be a total non-factor defensively. But other than the size, you’re again basically describing Anthony Mantha.

A lot of Kuzmenko’s 82-game averages are boosted up by that 39-goal debut season when he scored on more than 27 percent of his shots, and that’s just probably a performance he’s not going to duplicate. Especially now that he is into his 30s. But he has maintained a pretty high shooting percentage, and over the past three years has averaged 0.70 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. That places him 212th out of 517 forwards that have logged at least 500 minutes of ice-time. So … about middle of the pack. He is tied with Sean Monahan and Casey Mittelstadt just to give some additional perspective on what that looks like.

I do not expect him to match the goal-scoring production that Mantha had, but the gamble is the same and I imagine so is the intent to potentially use him as a trade chip if needed.

It is also another situation that creates such a log-jam positionally that it makes you wonder what the next foot to drop will be. This gives the Penguins a LOT of NHL-level forwards, including prospects like Rutger McGroarty, Ville Koivunen and Avery Hayes.

Advertisement

Is this is a sign the Penguins are maybe not as high on some of those guys? Is it a sign that a trade of some sort (or multiple trades) are on the horizon?

We will see. The offseason is still very young and there is still a lot of time before the 2026-27 regular season begins.