As sure as schools paying players next fall, the day is coming when the SEC places five teams into an expanded College Football Playoff.
That won’t happen in 2025, but it may in 2026 when the CFP potentially expands to 14 teams and the Big Ten and SEC push for four automatic qualifiers. Until then, the criteria from the first 12-team playoff remain and the SEC will have to rely on its teams impressing the selection committee. Do wins matter more than strength of schedule? That worries the SEC, which is built on beating up its teams and leaving several title contenders with three losses.
The league nearly had four teams in the fold in 2024, but the committee smartly placed SMU ahead of three-loss Alabama and South Carolina. In the end, the SEC advanced only one of its three teams into the semifinals.
Who will contend for a national championship this fall? The usual contenders remain, but we’re taking a chance on another team that has proven to be fool’s gold the last two seasons. We kept the list of contenders to five teams, but we could easily argue for seven.
Kalen DeBoer cannot afford to miss the playoffs in Year 2. An underwhelming 9-4 start to his Alabama career places the onus on him to lift the Tide into the 12-team CFP this season, and he must do so while replacing a quarterback and refilling several holes along the offensive and defensive lines, the primary units responsible for success or failure in the SEC. Still, the Tide ranks No. 2 in the initial SP+ ratings. The favorite to replace Jalen Milroe at quarterback is Ty Simpson, who DeBoer has praised often, but keep an eye on Austin Mack and five-star Keelon Russell in the offseason as newly-hired offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb reconfigures the offense into something that may more resemble the Washington team he coordinated to an appearance in the 2023 National Championship Game.
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Russell is undoubtedly the future after ranking No. 2 overall in the Top247 Rankings but he’ll likely sit on the bench. Right tackle and left guard give us concerns, and the defensive line will need more help from the portal. The second level of the defense is elite, particularly at the safety spots led by Keon Sabb and Bray Hubbard.
We’ll know early in the season whether Alabama is a contender. The Tide travel to Florida State in the season opener and close September with a trip to rival Georgia (Sept. 27). Potential risers South Carolina and Auburn are the toughest road games remaining on the schedule.
Georgia
You can’t keep Kirby Smart down for long. By any measure, a CFP appearance is enough to keep a fan base happy, but not in Georgia. The loss to Notre Dame in the quarterfinals was downright disappointing and 15 starters from that team are gone. The receivers never did quite break out last season and the defense, although great, was not up to the elite level of previous seasons. Plus, the offensive line struggled in run blocking. Things seem dour on paper, right? Wrong.
Smart aggressively sought game-breaking receivers and delivered with transfers Zachariah Branch (USC), Micah Bell (Vanderbilt) and Noah Thomas (Texas A&M) to go along with an impressive haul of five high school recruits. Plus, the Bulldogs continue to be the marquee program for signing, keeping and developing high school talent, so refueling the defensive and offensive lines is not as difficult as it would be for other programs.
Despite losing all that talent, Georgia returns five top 10 tacklers and three of its top six receivers. How does Georgia replace All-American safety Malaki Starks? They signed three defensive backs out of the portal.
Georgia’s semi-favorable schedule also helps. The two toughest opponents on paper come to Athens (Alabama and Texas), leaving trips to Tennessee (Sept. 13) and Auburn (Oct. 11) as games to circle.
Brian Kelly is not afraid; he’s angry. How else can you explain the Tigers terrorizing the transfer portal, outpacing the field by a wide margin to record the No. 1 class with only 16 commitments? As my colleague John Talty opined earlier this spring, perhaps the best thing to happen to LSU was Bryce Underwood picking Michigan. LSU saved its money and spread the wealth to land bluechip after bluechip, picking up eight players from SEC rivals, and solidifying the defense with highly-rated pass rushers (Patrick Payton and Jack Pyburn), and two ready-made stars at receiver (Nic Anderson and Barion Brown).
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Our biggest concern is the offensive line, which loses four starters. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is the SEC’s leading returning passer (4,052 yards) but benefited from the best protection in the league (15 sacks allowed). Transfers Josh Thompson and Braelin Moore must live up to the hype along the interior.
The schedule is challenging but manageable. The Tigers do not play back-to-back road games, which is incredible, but trips to Clemson, Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma are gigantic landmines. The Tigers open the season at Clemson, by the way, for Death Valley bragging rights.
Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin had us fooled into believing Ole Miss was a playoff contender again last season. So, why are we taking the bait for a third time? That schedule is incredibly tempting, with five of the first six games at home and the most challenging road trips not coming until back-to-back jaunts to Georgia and Oklahoma. That’s right: no Alabama or Texas on the schedule, either.
The nation’s attention will be on quarterback after record-setting passer Jaxson Dart’s career ended but that’s not the spot that gives us pause. The roster must reload with a slew of transfers and prep additions. The defensive line is of particular concern, though Suntarine Perkins (10.5 sacks) returns as Walter Nolen and Princely Umanmielen chase their NFL dreams.
Ole Miss loses half a dozen receivers, including three future NFL players, but returns Cayden Lee (874 yards) and adds five more from the transfer portal as Kiffin continues his Moneyball approach, replicating or exceeding production in the aggregate. Oklahoma State’s De’Zhaun Stribling (882 yards), Penn State’s Harrison Wallace III (720 yards), West Virginia’s Traylon Ray (426) and Wake Forest’s Deuce Alexander (400 yards) lead the nation’s No. 2 transfer class, according to 247Sports.
Expect Austin Simmons, who backed up Dart for two years, to take over at quarterback. Remember, he came into the game and led a touchdown drive in that blowout of Georgia last season.
Texas
Can Arch Manning deliver Texas a national championship? Sure, but he’ll need to deliver under pressure and take over games as the Longhorns break in a new offensive line and replace two of the top three receivers. Texas draws a difficult schedule, too, starting with the season opener at defending national champion Ohio State (eke!). The Longhorns return only one starter along the offensive line, meaning Manning’s duality will be on full display, especially early in the season.
The defense seems poised for another top-10 finish but must replace elite defensive tackles for a second consecutive year. Vernon Broughton and Alfred Collins are gone but the staff reloaded with three transfers. Plus, edge rusher Colin Simmons returns after leading the team with nine sacks and forcing three fumbles and picking off a pass last season.
The defense will be fine, and we trust Steve Sarkisian to deliver on offense — and perhaps hunt down one more offensive gamechanger in the spring transfer portal window. We expect an explosive attack with a more dynamic quarterback replacing Quinn Ewers. Circle those trips to Florida (Oct. 4) and Georgia (Nov. 15) on the calendar as games that will separate the SEC’s CFP contenders and pretenders.
Wildcards to watch: Florida, Tennessee
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