The Twins’ three trade deadline paths

Generally, there are five total paths teams take at the trade deadline. It’s not always as clean but generally, nearly every team will fall into one of the five tiers below.

1. Aggressive buyers. The true contenders who are looking to fill holes that have popped up throughout the course of the season. Typically they have large budgets, but there are exceptions for smaller market teams making a push (eg. this year’s Dodgers, Brewers, Braves, typically Yankees but maybe not this year).

2. Light buyers. You’re in contention and feel good about your odds. Usually teams that are playing particularly well leading up to the trade deadline. Also small market teams in contention but aren’t willing to raise the payroll (eg. 2026 Red Sox, Rays, Mariners).

3. Holders. You’re hovering around .500 with a chance to make the playoffs, but maybe don’t have the top-end talent to make a World Series run. Often this is teams who are competing earlier than expected or simply don’t have the budget to add more payroll despite very good teams (eg. basically every Twins team from 2019-2024).

4. Light sellers. Also around .500 but are moving in the wrong direction (2026 Marlins), have a good, young core that is underperforming but expected to bounce back next season (2026 Blue Jays), or have only a few pieces that you would be willing to trade and other teams would want (2026 Padres).

5. Aggressive sellers. The bad teams who aren’t close (perpetually the Rockies and Angels) or teams in the middle looking to make a hard pivot (2025 Twins, unfortunately). Anyone over the age of 30 or with three or fewer years of team control remaining is on the table.

The Twins will almost definitely fall in the middle three of the list above. Minnesota is one of a morass of eight AL teams and 14 teams overall that are between five games above or below .500 with the deadline a week away. That group includes everyone from the Boston Red Sox (almost definitely buyers) to the Miami Marlins (almost definitely sellers), so not all situations are created equal. Owner Tom Pohlad has repeatedly said he wants to win and is willing to invest to do so, while GM Jeremy Zoll likely doesn’t have anything guaranteed after this season after Derek Falvey’s surprising step down in January. A lot can change in this next week, but let’s take a look at what each path looks like for the Twins.

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The Unlikely Aggressive Paths

Let’s knock this one out of the way early since it’s the least likely. At least in part due to Byron Buxton’s full no-trade clause and desire to stay in Minnesota, their best trade chip is simply unavailable and that alone would prevent the Twins from going full-on tank even if they wanted to. However, Joe Ryan, Trevor Larnach, Royce Lewis, Kody Clemens, Victor Caratini, Bailey Ober, Tommy Nance, and Taylor Rogers would all have various levels of interest on the market.

On the buying side, even as fun as it would be, getting overly aggressive at the trade deadline is a good way to ruin your franchise’s future (see the San Diego Padres). Tarik Skubal is arguably the best pitcher alive right now, but there are reports he may end up costing a team a top 50-ish prospect if they want to trade for him. For a team that has limited payroll even if it was back up around the $150M mark, there’s just no scenario where trading Kaelen Culpepper or Marek Houston for two months of Skubal makes sense.

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That being said, the Twins have an incredibly deep farm system with the meteoric rises of Houston, Culpepper, and Riley Quick over the past calendar year, along with another top 20 prospect Vahn Lackey in this year’s draft. They have plenty of players outside of their organizational top 10 that other teams would covet and I like when the Twins try to win games. But IF they are in one of these tiers, I still think seller is significantly more likely. How about a few Joe Ryan trade packages that would still allow me to sleep well as a Twins fan?

Potential trades:

1. SP Joe Ryan and C Ryan Jeffers to the Boston Red Sox for SP Anthony Eyanson (#2 BOS, #26 MLB), SP Juan Valera (#5 BOS), and OF Enddy Azocar (#7 BOS)

   • It was reported last year that the Red Sox offered Payton Tolle and Franklin Arias for Ryan, which the Twins refused and likely regret now. But at the time, both Arias and Tolle were fringe top 100 prospects. Now Tolle is one of the best young pitchers in MLB and Arias is a top 5 prospect. This starts with a similar framework, giving the Twins a bonafide top guy who could be ready as soon as next year in Eyanson, along with two other prospects who could easily be top 100 this time next year (though Valera underwent TJS last month, so he is likely a longer term project). Ryan for Eyanson alone probably makes sense, Jeffers gets added to the mix to get the other two.

2. SP Joe Ryan, RP Tommy Nance, and OF Trevor Larnach to the Atlanta Braves for SP/RP Didier Fuentes and SP AJ Smith-Shawver

   • Neither are technically prospects but Fuentes is still only 21 and has been elite in the Braves ‘pen this season. The Twins could keep him there or stretch him back out over the offseason, as the Braves intend to do heading into 2027. Fuentes is the real gem of this package and the hit the Braves take in 2026 requires the addition of Larnach to fill the black hole they have in the corner outfield. Smith-Shawver is a former top 100 prospect who looked quite good prior to undergoing TJS in 2025. He is currently on a rehab assignment in AAA, which would continue with the Twins with the hope of making a few starts for the big league club in September.

3. SP Joe Ryan, RP Tommy Nance, and RP Cole Sands to the Cubs for OF/1B Josiah Hartshorn (#2 CHC, #37 MLB) and SP/RP Jaxon Wiggins (#4 CHC)

   • The Cubs have hitters and need pitchers. Ryan shores up their rotation while Nance and Sands give them some upside beyond the gaggle of league-average relievers they’ve been forced to turn to with a slew of injuries.

   • Hartshorn is still a few years away, but is essentially a carbon copy of Josh Bell when he was 19. Lots of defensive questions, but a good switch hitter with a strong hit tool and limited power despite good size. He may not have the upside of other prospects, but Bell’s high floor got him to the majors quickly and has made him a staple in MLB lineups for nearly a decade. It’ll play. Wiggins, meanwhile, is a volatile arm that could be an All-Star if he could command his pitches, but as it currently stands might be bullpen bound. His stuff alone makes him worth the gamble. The Twins could probably push for a bit more, but this is a very strong starting point.

Light Buyers

The Twins need pitching, both starters and relievers, so I will focus there for the sake of these conversations. One of the easiest ways to pick up quality pitching without giving up much is by taking on salaries. There are teams not in contention looking to get below the CBT or generally shed expenses, leaving solid starters and relievers available for fairly cheap. Those include Robbie Ray and Tyler Mahle on the Giants, Michael King and rehabbing Nick Pivetta on the Padres, and Freddy Peralta or Clay Holmes of the Mets. There’s also too many relief options to list and, as we saw with the Twins last year, nearly any reliever is available for the right price.

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I think the easier path might also be with starters anyway since the bullpen has been significantly better over the last month or so with Andrew Morris and Yoendrys Gomez settling into their roles, steps in the right direction from Travis Adams, Kody Funderburk, and the return of Cole Sands. Also Prielipp and Rojas are coming up on innings limits and will likely the finish the season in the ‘pen.

I would also include moving one of Jeffers, Larnach, Caratini, or Bell for MLB pitching as a “light buy” move. Jeffers in particular could bring back a ton of value as he fills two needs that are greatly lacking at this deadline: catching and elite right-handed hitting. Even if teams don’t need a catcher, Jeffers would be an upgrade at DH for nearly every contender besides the Dodgers and Phillies.

Matt Wallner could also be of interest as he has done nothing but crush AAA pitching since being demoted, but likely doesn’t have a future with the Twins with how many left-handed outfield bats they already have on the roster along with Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Hendry Mendez likely ahead of him on the call-up hierarchy at this point. He has some major flaws, but that power doesn’t grow on trees. A change of scenery and coaching could be the best move for all parties.

Proposed trades:

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1. OF/1B Hendry Mendez (#9 MIN) and C Enrique Jimenez (#26 MIN) to the Blue Jays for SP Kevin Gausman and RP Jeff Hoffman ($12.7M salary in 2027).

   • The Twins get a break on the prospect return for paying down the rest of Gausman and Hoffman’s salaries this year and taking on all of Hoffman’s in 2027. The Jays get a fringey corner outfielder with an excellent hit tool, the exact type of prospect they tend to love, and a bat-first catcher that could end up being a valuable backup behind Alejandro Kirk. The Twins are suddenly loaded with bat-first catching prospects, so Jimenez, Khadim Diaw, Ricardo Olivar, or Miguel Caraballo could also be subbed in if Toronto prefers one of them.

2. [insert low ranked, Complex League prospect] or OF Matt Wallner for [insert good veteran reliever on bad team]

   • This isn’t a typo. It’s just so “in the eye of the beholder” that it could go any number of ways, but let’s list some guys anyway.

   • Kirby Yates, Jeff Hoffman, Trevor Rogers, Kenley Jansen, Drew Anderson, Steven Okert, Bryan Abreu, Jeffrey Springs, Huascar Brazoban, AJ Minter, Brooks Raley, Pete Fairbanks, JoJo Romero, Emilio Pagan (lmao), Brock Burke, Tejay Antone, Caleb Ferguson, Sam Moll, Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada, JT Brubaker, and probably 30 others that didn’t come up in my research.

3. C Ryan Jeffers, OF Yasser Mercedes (#22 MIN), and wild-card prospect to the Yankees for one of SP Ryan Weathers, SP Will Warren, or SP Elmer Rodriguez

Light Sellers

You can still be in this group and make a run to the playoffs. The Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays do it all the time, and the Detroit Tigers famously did this back in 2024, helped by Minnesota’s complete collapse down the stretch.

In this scenario, it’s probably still Ryan Jeffers, Josh Bell, Trevor Larnach, and the 30+ YO relievers on the move, but you retain Joe Ryan, Royce Lewis, and Matt Wallner who have (Ryan) or could have (Lewis, Wallner) significant value for you beyond 2027. Maybe Bailey Ober gets traded instead of Ryan. And the players you get back are with a focus on the future, rather than who can help right now.

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Proposed trades:

1. C Ryan Jeffers to the Rays for SP Michael Forret (#7 TBR, #87 MLB) and SP Aidan Cremarosa (#36 TBR)

   • This is not that dissimilar from the Twins picking up Joe Ryan (borderline top 100) from the Rays for Nelson Cruz, but Jeffers should theoretically have more value as a catcher, so they get another throw in here who I am a big fan of and is only ranked this low due to the strength and depth of TB’s system. There’s also a bit more long-term upside here than the Yankees package above.

2. OF Trevor Larnach and RP Taylor Rogers to the Astros for SP Ethan Pecko (#4 HOU) and SP/RP Miguel Ullola (#12 HOU)

   • Both prospects here have elite fastballs and plenty of other question marks, which is the type of pitcher the Twins have liked in the past. Larnach gets some extra value with another year of team control.

3. C Ryan Jeffers, 1B/DH Josh Bell, and IF Royce Lewis to the Yankees for SS Anthony Volpe, SP Carlos Lagrange (#3 NYY, #91 MLB), and wildcard pitching prospect. Let’s get crazy.

   • Volpe has struggled the past few years with New York, but he’s still only 25 and could be a great change of scenery candidate. His defense and baserunning give him a high floor even if he doesn’t hit and he could thrive in a Willy Castro-esque super utility role with less pressure on him. Lagrange has the best fastball in minor league baseball, but walks too many batters and is currently dealing with a (potentially) serious shoulder injury, a bad sign this early is his career.

   • If the Twins are including Lewis to fix New York’s 3B problem, I would push for Elmer Rodriguez over Lagrange, but both teams leaving a little underwhelmed is probably a sign of a good trade.

   • I would also push for OF Jasson Dominguez over Volpe, but only if you feel comfortable with Luke Keaschall’s longer term prognosis in the infield. In this scenario, the Yankees also probably want Larnach over Bell (or potentially both), which I would do for Dominguez.

   • The Yankees, meanwhile, get to fix their offense in one fell swoop. They are missing all three of Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Giancarlo Stanton, all of whom aren’t particularly close to returning. It’s hard to pull off one move this big, but the Yankees and Twins have extensive trading histories together and the Twins undoubtedly have spent a lot of time scouting Yankees prospects over the past few years as they’ve entertained selling.