In the first episode of Season 3 of How I Met Your Mother, the primary storyline revolves around breakups, and the idea that every time two people split there is a winner and loser.
If the 2026 offseason was HIMYM, the big breakup that occurred this offseason would be the divorce that transpired between the most storied franchise in league history (the Los Angeles Lakers) and (probably) its greatest player (LeBron James) after eight years of being happily married.
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To most people, it seems like James won the breakup. After all, the Philadelphia 76ers, James’ new significant other, just assembled the league’s latest superteam in a conference that is much more manageable. Meanwhile, the Lakers are left to deal with the two behemoths (the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder) out West.
However, I’m here to tell you that, by losing James, the Lakers got way better, and, in turn, won the breakup.
How The Lakers Got Better Without James
Listen, this isn’t some Skip Bayless inspired anti-James propaganda. As I noted before, James is probably the best player to ever grace the hardwood, and he was certainly the most productive 41 year old of all-time last season.
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With that said, we have enough of a sample size now to say that James and Luka Doncic were an imperfect fit. According to PBP Stats, the Lakers were better when only one of the two jumbo ball handlers was on the floor than when they shared the court together.
At the end of the day, both James and Doncic are better when a team is being molded in their likeness, rather than when they need to placate to others’ wants and needs.
We saw a couple of years ago when the 2023-24 Dallas Mavericks went to the NBA Finals what the Platonic Ideal for a Doncic team would look like. A second fiddle who knows how to oscillate between playing on and off the ball (Kyrie Irving), wings/forwards who will do Doncic’s dirty work (Derrick Jones Jr., PJ Washington, Josh Green), shooters (Tim Hardaway Jr.), and centers who can protect the rim and catch lobs (Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II).
The Lakers haven’t perfectly imitated this formula (more on this in a bit), but they have come pretty close. While not possessing quite the same resume, Austin Reaves does a pretty serviceable Irving impression. Quentin Grimes, Matisse Thybulle, Cameron Carr (an excellent choice by the Lakers with the 24th overall pick, by the way), and Jarred Vanderbilt are all excellent athletes with the desire to do Doncic’s bidding on defense. Grimes, Collin Sexton, and Sandro Mamukelashvili are all ready to let it rip from downtown (Sexton also gives you some nice regular season innings eating as a creator). And Walker Kessler, Los Angeles’ big ticket signing, is going to do his best to replicate the value of Doncic’s former twin tower pick-and-roll partners.
Last season, the Lakers’ best lineup that played over 200 non-garbage time possessions featured Doncic, Reaves, Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, and Deandre Ayton. That group outscored opponents by 23.3 points per 100 possessions (92nd percentile, per Cleaning the Glass).
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Doncic and Reaves are still there, and it wouldn’t take much arguing to convince someone that a trio of Kessler/Grimes/Carr (or whoever you prefer in that fifth spot) wouldn’t be more potent than the triumvirate of Ayton/Hachimura/Smart. Plus, you no longer have to worry about laboring through minutes where Doncic is forced to share the floor with another uber-high-usage ball handler. The bottom line is that we already have proof of concept that the model the Lakers have built is conducive to winning.
The Lakers Will Be Better Than The 76ers Next Season
According to FanDuel, the 76ers odds of winning 50 or more games this season are set at -115 (an implied probability of 53.5%), while the Lakers are set at +250 (28.6%). So, the consensus view seems to be that the 76ers are better than the Lakers.
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I will concede that the 76ers have more raw talent than the Lakers. But to win in this league, you need talent, depth, and fit. So many times over the last few years we’ve seen teams try to stack stars, only to crash and burn because their skillsets overlapped too much and they sacrificed so much of their salary cap to put them together that the players behind them aren’t good enough to fill the cracks.
This iteration of the Lakers isn’t a super team, but they do have a top five-ish player, a borderline All-Star, and a cavalcade of versatile chess pieces to slot around them. Their roster certainly makes a lot more sense than the team that James left them for. Now, I’m not saying that they are a lock to be better than the 76ers, but where oddsmakers currently have these two teams does not paint the proper picture.
Are The Lakers A True Inner Circle Title Contender?
The Lakers are going to be really, really good. They have a good blend of talent, depth, and fit. The issue is that a handful of other teams have a better mix of those three variables.
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As of right now, I’d say that the Spurs, Thunder, New York Knicks, and Toronto Raptors (if the Kawhi Leonard trade ends up going through) are all firmly better than them. I’ll also hear arguments for the Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Boston Celtics, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Indiana Pacers.
The big thing holding this group back is their lack of a true power forward. One who can hit open shots, attack closeouts, handle various wing assignments, and use their size and length to offer some secondary rim protection. They’ve managed to almost perfectly copy that Mavericks team that won the West in 2024 (Doncic, Reaves is Irving, Grimes is Jones Jr., Kessler is Gafford/Lively), but they need their own version of Washington.
Vanderbilt can check those boxes defensively, but he’s a complete negative on the offensive side of the floor. Ditto with Thybulle. Mamukelashvili has size and skill, but lacks the lateral mobility to be trusted shadowing high-level forwards. Carr is too short and too unproven.
Until this problem is addressed, either via trade or unexpected emergence, the Lakers will be a tier below the true inner circle of title contenders – meaning that they will need more than a couple of lucky bounces to reach, let alone win, the NBA Finals. Still, this team projects to be pretty darn scary, which should be enough for them to win their breakup with James.
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